Am I the only one who found this quote to be the most interesting part?

"Keith sent a code update last night that in size is three times as
large a file as what is currently in the latest games out now!"

Reposted from another thread:

(1) Jack knows what he's doing. The hardware has universally been considered a cut above. There is absolutely no reason to think the software won't eventually be just as brilliant. Jack's talent pool are PROVEN pinball designers and programmers.

(2) Remember they're not just building a single design. They're building an entire company from the ground up. Distribution network, parts suppliers, assembly line design, inventories, circuit board designs, operating system creation. That's just off the top of my head. That's ALL before designing a single thing SPECIFICALLY for WOZ - not a ramp, not a bolt, not even a backglass sketch. And they're trying to build in ways no one has ever done before, like the LCD. (Cough, cough...or stereo sound), so they're inventing the wheel in a lot of ways.

Frankly, I'm amazed they are as far as they've come. Even to the point of securing a big time license for JJP #2, further illustrating that they're in it for the long haul. That they won't produce a shoddy pin #1 because they need to secure a good reputation because they already have sunk in money for the Hobbit.

(3) I didn't so much buy a deadline, but bought a chance to own a Very Special Pin, filled with things never done before. I am COMPLETELY okay with waiting longer for the sake of perfecting all the innovation WOZ represents. Would rather wait a little longer, heck a LOT longer, for a special pin done right but late, rather than have a mediocre sameoldsameold pin on time. I recognize that opinion isn't universal, but that was the mindset I went into with this purchase: something special, but inherently full of unknowns with production timeline as a result. So no surprises, no worries.

I want JJP to spend their resources on making the pin better, not faster.

(4) Ask yourself honestly: is the state of pinball HEALTHIER or LESS HEALTHY since JJP was formed? I think pretty clearly the answer is HEALTHIER, even if you don't own/intend to own a JJP.

But that cuts both ways.

The increase in prices is because of increase in DEMAND. More people are getting into pins, so the producers (wow... "producerS"... PLURAL. Groovy.) can demand higher prices. So the hobby is EXPANDING.

Show me a hobby where the cost of collecting is dropping and I'll show you a hobby that is circling the drain.

And the innovation that is finally arriving, like LCD use both in backglass and on playfield, like multicolored LEDs, like more sophisticated board design, USB driven code updates, etc. and that costs money. The only reason manufacturers are willing to put that money in is because they expect a return on it for creating pins that do something up to the 21st century level of tech.

That simply wasn't happening when Stern was the only game in town. Sure, they owned the whole market, the whole pie... But it was a BORING pie, and it WAS shrinking. That's why prices were declining.

So, yeah, our hobby getting more popular and limited production is being divided among more fans. That's rough on our individual wallets. But a sign that thngs are GREAT for the hobby as a whole.

Pinball has been unambiguously growing since JJP in popularity.

It means buying more costs more, but what you own is worth more, too. That parts are going to be in supply. That innovation from modders AND manufactureres will continue the explosion we've been lucky enough to be experiencing of late.

All good stuff for EVERYONE. All since JJP.

Well, yes. I do believe that. It's kind of like the casino phenomenon: one casino alone does okay. But a few together actually heighten excitement and are mutually beneficial, like Las Vegas. Orlando attractions are another example that I can come up with. They result in these weird collaborations between competitors that increase business, which is why one sees group advertisements for both Vegas and Orlando. They compete, sure, for a bigger slice of the pie. But their presences generate enough excitement that the pie itself becomes bigger.

I think in this stage of the pinball hobby, the exposure generated by JJP in mainstream publications and within the industry has DEFINITELY made more people consider purchasing a pinball for personal use (and not just a JJP pinball). So, yes, I believe JJP's existence as an entity that markets its pinball machines (and hence pinballs in general secondarily) absolutely is expanding the demand for pins.

I think we might be quibbling over semantics to a degree and are probably saying similar things from a different angle. For instance, you state that even with all this JJP purchaser money tied up, the price of other pins are continuing to escalate as proof the demand predated the presence of JJP.

But to me it is plausible that at least for SOME of the people buying WOZ, it was not an either-WOZ-or-Stern proposition. That they weren't going to buy a pin at all except for the fact that they saw something different. So instead of buying NO pins at all, they purchased a WOZ, making the pinball market larger.

It also seems plausible to me that someone who didn't even KNOW about pins still existing sees a WOZ at Comicon, or in Fortune magazine, or from the buzz generated by women/children who JUST wouldn't talk about Tron or ACDC the same way, suddenly gets to exploring the entire hobby. Suddenly they're not just considering a Woz for the wife and kids. They're trying to get EVERYTHING they can get their hands on.

Heck, this forum has been crawling lately with new pinball enthusiasts bragging about having purchased their first pin and have two more on the way. You might describe this as preexisting demand. I'd describe it as generated demand created by another manufacturer being present with a different product that appeals to an untapped market segment. And thereby also increasing demand for pins across the board secondarily as a result.

So, yeah, I maintain more manufacturers both indicates presence of demand but also, at this stage, generates increased demand by widening the market by getting people who previously never considered or were aware of pinball interested.

Again, just look at the posts on this forum: there seems to be a lot of new pinball owners/enthusiasts. I believe a significant number of them are secondary to the attention created by marketing/increased visibility provided to the hobby from the increase from one manufacturer to two large-scale and multiple small scale manufacturers we've been lucky enough to see lately.

And the more the market expands, the better they all will do.

So yes, JJP and Stern compete. But to a degree, they are good for one another in boosting the visibility of pinball, which is what we need at this point.

Once everyone in the industrialized world is well aware of what pinball is, how much fun it is, and that machines with modern whiz-bang tech are being actively created and are purchaseable, well, THEN JJP vs Stern becomes much more cutthroat.

Until then, they are moving pinball from the relative fringe to the highly visible mainstream, increasing the number of potential customers (hopefully dramatically), and thus driving demand.

And causing prices, not just NIB but across the board, to increase.

Anyway that's how I see it.

No, I'm not blaming anything on Stern. I'm just saying that prior to JJP, it seemed like the pinball market as a whole was on the decline. And I suspect that Stern was elevating prices as units sold declined, trying to keep revenue up. It's not the ONLY strategy pursuable, but it certainly isn't unreasonable and businesses react that way all the time.

Indeed, if one believes pinball is destined to go the way of the dinosaur, and wants to hold on as long as possible making pins, that's probably the safest way to do it. And say what you want about Stern: they know how to survive. There wouldn't be a pin market to speak of if it wasn't for Stern, and they darned well deserve a ton of credit for keeping the lights on.

And AcDc is a masterpiece.

But at some point, you either believe the pin market will continue to shrink, so you maintain the same safe strategy, boost prices in the face of declining sales, cut back on the unit/development cost per pin, keep some profit coming, but don't generate any NEW excitement for your product and hence don't generate brand new customers either, because that takes lots of money and lots of risk.

OR you believe there are LOTS of untapped potential customers out there so long as you give them something dramatically new with new technology and also something with broad-based appeal with clever licensing that won't necessarily appeal to the traditional, but stagnant, customer base. And that takes vision, money, experience, and a pair of brass ones. Some people buy into that vision, and some don't.

I THINK Stern is demonstrating that, at this point, they've come around to that vision of untapped market, as illustrated by some new tech (LEDs; marked sound upgrade with ACDC (but still mono!?!)), the potential of the long-rumored-but-unconfirmed new LCD platform, and The Pin (an attempt at widening the market by appealing to lower-cost, maintenance-averse consumers. Like-it-or-not, it clearly demonstrates Stern is thinking about how to broaden appeal).

And patrons of JJP just share that vision as well, by and large. Part of that vision, then, is interpreting Stern's price increases before JJP as a means of offsetting dropping revenue. But now more indicative of higher demand due to more customers for pin (as well as to offset higher development costs that these new members of the pinball market demand in order to keep them interested).

In support of this, I think prices for USED pins were stagnant (if not declining) when Stern was raising NIB prices pre-JJP. Post JJP, Stern still raising prices, true, but used pin prices going up, too. That's a relatively new thing.

I understand what you're saying, but marketing buzz doesn't always have a clean trackback to JJP.

I mean, maybe you've never heard of JJP before coming on board. Entirely believable if not likely.

But isn't it possible that someone's wife was watching Chicago's WGN morning news when the Chicago Pin Expo was in town during a news segment that aired featuring a WOZ? And that she mentioned it to her daughter, who was reading Wizard of Oz at school. And she told her classmates. And one of those classmates, innocently enough, asked her dad over dinner, "What's pinball?" Her dad, in answering, becomes nostalgic. His daughter tells him they were on TV. He thinks, "Wow! Didn't even know they still made them!" He googles pinball. Finds Stern's website. Makes a NIB purchase. Or googles "Dracula," that real cool pin he remembers, hasn't thought about in years, but suddenly REALLY wants one.

And voila. He's suddenly in the hobby. Here. Never heard of JJP. But now in the market as an indirect result of the increased visibility of pin brought on by JJP's presence.

I'm certain variations of this story have happened lots of times.

And so the Dracula costs a little more. But more pinheads. So more titles, parts, and motivation for innovation. It's a good thing.

But don't pinheads often START as fans of whatever license snagged them on their first pin?

Surely SOME pinheads started as poker fans who liked WPT.

Or pool fans with Eight Ball Deluxe.

Or motorcycle enthusiasts and Centaur.

For me, Dungeons and Dragons was the rage when I plunked my quarter into a Black Knight. And so began my love affair with pins.

So how else do you generate NEW pinheads without getting themes that aren't retreads?

WOZ is BRILLIANT in that regard: appeal for women/girls, family friendly, nostalgic. SOME of these people will come for WOZ license, but will return because of pinball itself. And that's how the hobby expands.

Well, your simplifying a bit by leaving out a few intervening steps.

But, yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying: someone who previously had no interest in pinball before JJP, BECAUSE THEY WEREN'T EVEN AWARE OF IT'S EXISTENCE as a cutting-edge home entertainment, nonvideogame, social pasttime, would very well drop $7k on that machine. And, if they have a good experience, would CERTAINLY buy another one.

This entire forum, in fact, is dedicated to people who share that particular character flaw.

And note they are not buying DIRECTLY because of the presence of JJP (though such sales exist as well due to the radically different licensing strategy that WOZ represents, appealing to people whom Stern never targetted previously), but because of the general increase in pinball buzz that necessarily accompanies the presence of a new manufacturer, making more people generally aware of the modern home pinball business, and how much fun it is.

Yep, I think there are a LOT of people with your experience: the pinball experience is what pulled you in, not the license.

But for the hobby to expand, I think it needs BOTH. The license can only carry you so far. So, in my case, thank goodness my D&D penchant got me to try Black Knight and that BK is such an amazing pin. If it weren't, I probably wouldn't be the fan I am today.

So, for JJP AND Stern to succeed in expanding the market, they can't just rely on a clever license like WOZ, or a sweet price point, like The Pin. They have to make sure they are delivering a great game experience or people won't come back, either to spend $1 or $7,000 (and rising!).

These efforts just give you a BRIEF and PRECIOUS chance to get potential future hobbyists/customers attention. It won't make them fall in love with pinball itself unless the manufacturers deliver a kick ass game experience. Then they'll be back for more.

That's why Stern's recent successes with Tron and ACDC as fun fun fun games that showcase how entertaining pins can be are really important right now, as the hobby is getting more first timers on board and it's important they have a good time.

Even more important for WOZ, because there will probably be more first timers playing a WOZ than a Tron/ACDC, just due to the fact that that license should appeal more to people who probably have no idea what a pin is, and either too young to have ever played pin, or too old to be interested in Tron/ACDC. So a good first pin experience for WOZ players is very important for the pin hobby in general, no matter HOW you feel about Stern.

Interesting you say that about downloading games.

Here's a BBC article on the "resurgence of pinball" from January of this year wherein they state one of the causes of the comeback is, in fact, videogames that emulate the play. But that many of these kids who play the iTunes downloaded game have never seen an actual pinball (until now that it is becoming more popular). Article cites several manufacturers, including JJP and Stern (but no Predator or JPop boutique-pin mentions !)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-21200001

_{Post edited by Rick432 : Added link.}

But surely there are a few good used titles that falls within thei budget?

Well, sure, SOME dads will say that. And some will say, "this will be a great family Xmas present. I can afford this."

And some will say, "I can't afford this new! Let me check craigslist for a less expensive used pin," which they buy, making the other used pins a little bit more expensive.

An still other dads will say, "if we're going to do this, let's buy the one your mother and you REALLY like: the woz.

No. I respectfully think you are way out of touch here.

I cite http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-21200001 article wherein Gary Stern himself reports sales (presumably units sold, not dollar revenue) are up THIRTY percent.

That's WITH other manufacturers in the worldwide market now racking up even MORE sales. And even if they're not delivering product yet, they are DEFINITELY taking preorders, so they are taking consumer money in, period.

So given that Stern's sales are up 30 percent, and that JJP has several hundred preorders (if not more), and that there are Predator presales, Popadiuk presales, etc. etc. IN ADDITION to that, one has to conclude new money, that is brand new customers, are coming on board.

And they're plonking $7k for new pins. AND since the sales keep rolling in, if rumors are to be believed that Stern is raising prices (to match Jack's increase), they'll be paying more than that.

And I will wager that the sales will CONTINUE to ramp up as more GOOD INNOVATIVE FUN pins get out there in the wild.

Now, you could argue that this boost in sales are due to the same old hobbyists. They're just SUDDENLY buying 30pct more pins even though they're more expensive now and that the world economy is flat. But I just don't think that's a significant source of the boost.

I think growth in sales for a luxury entertainment product like pinball happens by and large JUST like I've been describing. And at this point, the more manufacturers, the more hype. The more hype, the more people who would otherwise have never considered pinball start doing so (as long as the pinballs produced are GENUINELY QUALITY BUILDS, INNOVATIVE, AND FUN... Otherwise shabby pinball machines will SINK Stern, Jack, and everyone else).

Including our hypothetical "dad." And thanks to WOZ, our hypothetical "mom" as well.

So thirty percent growth in the face of escalating new and used prices. Its tough on our wallets, but GREAT for our hobby and entertainment. The more high quality manufacturers, the better.

Thank you! Joliet Jake is actually my gamertag, fwiw!