Instead of writing "from the heart" letters someone should be writing shipping labels.

Its funny to watch from a distance the twist & turns of the flagship launch, spin applied after missed dates and promises and now a rally letter to the troops.

I am sure something will ship and hopefully everyone is pleased with the finished product. In the mean time its just a little fun to poke on the sales pitch items promised and timeline missed.

Now, back to the arts.......

You know, Stern's prices were going up long before Jack came around, and if anything have merely continued to rise at the same pace.

In the two years prior to JJP existing, street prices between CSI and Avatar LE went up 36.8%. In the two years after JJP came out, prices between Avatar LE and Avengers LE went up 34.6%.

But sure, let's ignore the identical pattern before WOZ, and blame Stern's business practices all on JJP...

Well, yes. I do believe that. It's kind of like the casino phenomenon: one casino alone does okay. But a few together actually heighten excitement and are mutually beneficial, like Las Vegas. Orlando attractions are another example that I can come up with. They result in these weird collaborations between competitors that increase business, which is why one sees group advertisements for both Vegas and Orlando. They compete, sure, for a bigger slice of the pie. But their presences generate enough excitement that the pie itself becomes bigger.

I think in this stage of the pinball hobby, the exposure generated by JJP in mainstream publications and within the industry has DEFINITELY made more people consider purchasing a pinball for personal use (and not just a JJP pinball). So, yes, I believe JJP's existence as an entity that markets its pinball machines (and hence pinballs in general secondarily) absolutely is expanding the demand for pins.

I think we might be quibbling over semantics to a degree and are probably saying similar things from a different angle. For instance, you state that even with all this JJP purchaser money tied up, the price of other pins are continuing to escalate as proof the demand predated the presence of JJP.

But to me it is plausible that at least for SOME of the people buying WOZ, it was not an either-WOZ-or-Stern proposition. That they weren't going to buy a pin at all except for the fact that they saw something different. So instead of buying NO pins at all, they purchased a WOZ, making the pinball market larger.

It also seems plausible to me that someone who didn't even KNOW about pins still existing sees a WOZ at Comicon, or in Fortune magazine, or from the buzz generated by women/children who JUST wouldn't talk about Tron or ACDC the same way, suddenly gets to exploring the entire hobby. Suddenly they're not just considering a Woz for the wife and kids. They're trying to get EVERYTHING they can get their hands on.

Heck, this forum has been crawling lately with new pinball enthusiasts bragging about having purchased their first pin and have two more on the way. You might describe this as preexisting demand. I'd describe it as generated demand created by another manufacturer being present with a different product that appeals to an untapped market segment. And thereby also increasing demand for pins across the board secondarily as a result.

So, yeah, I maintain more manufacturers both indicates presence of demand but also, at this stage, generates increased demand by widening the market by getting people who previously never considered or were aware of pinball interested.

Again, just look at the posts on this forum: there seems to be a lot of new pinball owners/enthusiasts. I believe a significant number of them are secondary to the attention created by marketing/increased visibility provided to the hobby from the increase from one manufacturer to two large-scale and multiple small scale manufacturers we've been lucky enough to see lately.

And the more the market expands, the better they all will do.

So yes, JJP and Stern compete. But to a degree, they are good for one another in boosting the visibility of pinball, which is what we need at this point.

Once everyone in the industrialized world is well aware of what pinball is, how much fun it is, and that machines with modern whiz-bang tech are being actively created and are purchaseable, well, THEN JJP vs Stern becomes much more cutthroat.

Until then, they are moving pinball from the relative fringe to the highly visible mainstream, increasing the number of potential customers (hopefully dramatically), and thus driving demand.

And causing prices, not just NIB but across the board, to increase.

Anyway that's how I see it.

er, I don't know. Maybe I liked it better when pinball wasn't so well known and I could buy a MM for $2,800....

@rick...

conduct this experiment...

stop 100 people on the street tomorrow and ask them if they've ever heard of jjp...

report back...

i'm one of those "new people" you refer to, and i had never heard of jjp before i joined here... some of you fail to recognize how insular the pinball community is...

That is a double edged sword.

When MM's were cheaper, things were doom and gloom and a heck of a lot less parts available.

You can't have both.

LTG : )

Stop 100 people on the street and ask them who the Vice President is...
report back

True!

nice try, but completely irrelevant...

It was a JOKE!

You make some good points Rick, but I'm still going to be of the opinion that the number of new pin owners that exist only because of JJP is minuscule. I don't think simply announcing a new pin company would be nearly enough to bring new people into the hobby. If JJP has expanded the market, it has mostly been among people who already own pins.

I know that their goal is to get non pinheads into pinball, but that isn't going to happen until WOZ is out on location (and personally I still don't think that's going to change things much either).

See! Case in point to what I said above.

yup... i find it difficult to believe that someone who had no interest in pinball before is going to be running out and dropping $7k on a machine simply due to the emergence of another manufacturer...

i want jjp to succeed from a selfish standpoint... successful businesses are good for my state...

+1

oops... sorry.... i'm a little cranky, i just spent 2 hours on the phone with verizon trying to convince them that no, i'm not an idiot, the service really isn't working...

Been there, done that. No offense taken, bro!

I don't know if they'll do it for every title JJP builds. But there are non-pinheads buying WOZ because they are WOZ collectors.

Last Summer I had 3 or 4 couples stop in traveling on vacation to talk WOZ and find out what pinball is. They found me because they were on the WOZ forums. And were big WOZ fans. Yellow brick driveways and everything.

It reminded me of the KISS army driving up KISS pinball prices.

Might not be huge numbers. They are out there.

LTG : )

Love to see a photo of THAT!

No, I'm not blaming anything on Stern. I'm just saying that prior to JJP, it seemed like the pinball market as a whole was on the decline. And I suspect that Stern was elevating prices as units sold declined, trying to keep revenue up. It's not the ONLY strategy pursuable, but it certainly isn't unreasonable and businesses react that way all the time.

Indeed, if one believes pinball is destined to go the way of the dinosaur, and wants to hold on as long as possible making pins, that's probably the safest way to do it. And say what you want about Stern: they know how to survive. There wouldn't be a pin market to speak of if it wasn't for Stern, and they darned well deserve a ton of credit for keeping the lights on.

And AcDc is a masterpiece.

But at some point, you either believe the pin market will continue to shrink, so you maintain the same safe strategy, boost prices in the face of declining sales, cut back on the unit/development cost per pin, keep some profit coming, but don't generate any NEW excitement for your product and hence don't generate brand new customers either, because that takes lots of money and lots of risk.

OR you believe there are LOTS of untapped potential customers out there so long as you give them something dramatically new with new technology and also something with broad-based appeal with clever licensing that won't necessarily appeal to the traditional, but stagnant, customer base. And that takes vision, money, experience, and a pair of brass ones. Some people buy into that vision, and some don't.

I THINK Stern is demonstrating that, at this point, they've come around to that vision of untapped market, as illustrated by some new tech (LEDs; marked sound upgrade with ACDC (but still mono!?!)), the potential of the long-rumored-but-unconfirmed new LCD platform, and The Pin (an attempt at widening the market by appealing to lower-cost, maintenance-averse consumers. Like-it-or-not, it clearly demonstrates Stern is thinking about how to broaden appeal).

And patrons of JJP just share that vision as well, by and large. Part of that vision, then, is interpreting Stern's price increases before JJP as a means of offsetting dropping revenue. But now more indicative of higher demand due to more customers for pin (as well as to offset higher development costs that these new members of the pinball market demand in order to keep them interested).

In support of this, I think prices for USED pins were stagnant (if not declining) when Stern was raising NIB prices pre-JJP. Post JJP, Stern still raising prices, true, but used pin prices going up, too. That's a relatively new thing.

point taken lloyd... that being said, that's not really "growing the pin community"... that's "wizard of oz" nuts who'd buy a buffalo turd if dorothy was on the side of it...

as noted, i want to see jjp succeed... small boutique businesses succeeding are a sign of a growing economy...

We'll see with Predator....
#55

no gif??? dang mate, i thought you had a gif for everything...

! sorry

clickme.gif

I understand what you're saying, but marketing buzz doesn't always have a clean trackback to JJP.

I mean, maybe you've never heard of JJP before coming on board. Entirely believable if not likely.

But isn't it possible that someone's wife was watching Chicago's WGN morning news when the Chicago Pin Expo was in town during a news segment that aired featuring a WOZ? And that she mentioned it to her daughter, who was reading Wizard of Oz at school. And she told her classmates. And one of those classmates, innocently enough, asked her dad over dinner, "What's pinball?" Her dad, in answering, becomes nostalgic. His daughter tells him they were on TV. He thinks, "Wow! Didn't even know they still made them!" He googles pinball. Finds Stern's website. Makes a NIB purchase. Or googles "Dracula," that real cool pin he remembers, hasn't thought about in years, but suddenly REALLY wants one.

And voila. He's suddenly in the hobby. Here. Never heard of JJP. But now in the market as an indirect result of the increased visibility of pin brought on by JJP's presence.

I'm certain variations of this story have happened lots of times.

And so the Dracula costs a little more. But more pinheads. So more titles, parts, and motivation for innovation. It's a good thing.

Yes. EVERY time someone comes over, with kids, or not, they are amazed that you can buy pinball machines. My friend's kids were amazed. The parents were just happy to get them away from the damn video games. 3 people from my office bought pinball machines just in the last 6 months.

mo' bettah'...

But don't pinheads often START as fans of whatever license snagged them on their first pin?

Surely SOME pinheads started as poker fans who liked WPT.

Or pool fans with Eight Ball Deluxe.

Or motorcycle enthusiasts and Centaur.

For me, Dungeons and Dragons was the rage when I plunked my quarter into a Black Knight. And so began my love affair with pins.

So how else do you generate NEW pinheads without getting themes that aren't retreads?

WOZ is BRILLIANT in that regard: appeal for women/girls, family friendly, nostalgic. SOME of these people will come for WOZ license, but will return because of pinball itself. And that's how the hobby expands.

^^^

well if you want to use your "nostalgia" example above, no, they didn't... i certainly didn't... i played pinball incessantly in my yute, and it really wasn't the theme... it was the challenge... i loved beating the machine...

For reference purposes the WOZ license skews heavily female.

Well, your simplifying a bit by leaving out a few intervening steps.

But, yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying: someone who previously had no interest in pinball before JJP, BECAUSE THEY WEREN'T EVEN AWARE OF IT'S EXISTENCE as a cutting-edge home entertainment, nonvideogame, social pasttime, would very well drop $7k on that machine. And, if they have a good experience, would CERTAINLY buy another one.

This entire forum, in fact, is dedicated to people who share that particular character flaw.

And note they are not buying DIRECTLY because of the presence of JJP (though such sales exist as well due to the radically different licensing strategy that WOZ represents, appealing to people whom Stern never targetted previously), but because of the general increase in pinball buzz that necessarily accompanies the presence of a new manufacturer, making more people generally aware of the modern home pinball business, and how much fun it is.

Yep, I think there are a LOT of people with your experience: the pinball experience is what pulled you in, not the license.

But for the hobby to expand, I think it needs BOTH. The license can only carry you so far. So, in my case, thank goodness my D&D penchant got me to try Black Knight and that BK is such an amazing pin. If it weren't, I probably wouldn't be the fan I am today.

So, for JJP AND Stern to succeed in expanding the market, they can't just rely on a clever license like WOZ, or a sweet price point, like The Pin. They have to make sure they are delivering a great game experience or people won't come back, either to spend $1 or $7,000 (and rising!).

These efforts just give you a BRIEF and PRECIOUS chance to get potential future hobbyists/customers attention. It won't make them fall in love with pinball itself unless the manufacturers deliver a kick ass game experience. Then they'll be back for more.

That's why Stern's recent successes with Tron and ACDC as fun fun fun games that showcase how entertaining pins can be are really important right now, as the hobby is getting more first timers on board and it's important they have a good time.

Even more important for WOZ, because there will probably be more first timers playing a WOZ than a Tron/ACDC, just due to the fact that that license should appeal more to people who probably have no idea what a pin is, and either too young to have ever played pin, or too old to be interested in Tron/ACDC. So a good first pin experience for WOZ players is very important for the pin hobby in general, no matter HOW you feel about Stern.

it's not irrelevant. He's saying most of the worlds population are idiots. And I concur. Ask them how many planets are in the solar system and you'll get a bunch that don't have a clue.

But it is true, nobody except us pinball nerds don't have a clue what JJP is, or that WOZ is even coming out, or even care.

Lol.... sorry but that's a pretty far stretch! Id say not even remotely plausible....

But I'll play along.... the problem is when "average dad" googles pinball... and then clicks "Price"- whats going through his head:
"Hmmm, I just bought a Quintuple-core pentium for $2000.. half what it cost a few years ago...
A 99" plasma TV for $2000.... half what it cost a few years ago...
A IPAD that plays more games for $0.99 than our last playstation...
wait... what!?!!?!?!? $7500 WTF? IS that a joke? .... the used car I bought her cost less than that!!

'Um honey, yeah, they dont make pinball anymore... here's $1.00 to go download a new game on itunes'"

Or god held "average dad" if he googled his way right to JJP's website (you know, because of all the BUZZ outside the pinball world...).

"Hmmmm, OK, preorder? what's preorder? Wait? What? Send this guy $3000 and then in a year and a half I'll get my pinball machine? Well, lets at least see what it looks like....click...click... click... WTF?"

My friends who own bars are the same way. I tried to convince them to get a pin. When I told them the price (6-7k) They said, What!...I thought they were $3k. Not any more...

I think the new investor that Stern got a little while back had a rather large role in their rise. Not to mention more people who grew up playing pinball having some disposable cash on hand.

While I'm certain JJP was something that is in the back of the mind of the people at Stern, I don't think they looked at them as a huge threat.

Interesting you say that about downloading games.

Here's a BBC article on the "resurgence of pinball" from January of this year wherein they state one of the causes of the comeback is, in fact, videogames that emulate the play. But that many of these kids who play the iTunes downloaded game have never seen an actual pinball (until now that it is becoming more popular). Article cites several manufacturers, including JJP and Stern (but no Predator or JPop boutique-pin mentions !)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-21200001

_{Post edited by Rick432 : Added link.}

But surely there are a few good used titles that falls within thei budget?

Well, sure, SOME dads will say that. And some will say, "this will be a great family Xmas present. I can afford this."

And some will say, "I can't afford this new! Let me check craigslist for a less expensive used pin," which they buy, making the other used pins a little bit more expensive.

An still other dads will say, "if we're going to do this, let's buy the one your mother and you REALLY like: the woz.

Abraham Lincoln gave a 3 minute speech at Gettysburg and said more than Jack's rambling posting above. Jack, you're not great until we say you are!! Twenty plus paragraphs still do not answer the "when" question.

Even harder to sell a bar owner a USED pinball machine for $3,000 that will earn $25 a week.

Nice first post, you are off to a great start

hey rick432, being from Joliet IL it's to bad your name isn't Jake. Like your style buddy

This is true! AND, or course, the want the latest stuff...Avengers, WOZ, etc. BUT, if they see these machines CAN earn, and then still be worth thousands at the end of the road, things may change.

lol.... I think you're WAY out of touch with what the typical consumer's reaction will be. It's WAY more likely to be "oh wait, whew.... crisis averted- I can buy pinball for our Xbox.... oh wait.... better yet- I can get it for your iphone honey" and ....done.

i thought you were actually joking with your "friend heard it on the radio and then talked about WOZ pinball over the dinner table" example.... but if you're even remotely serious:

i think you're kidding yourself if you think the $7500 price point is aimed at the casual, non-pinhead consumer..... WOZ was never intended to capture that- lets face it- its aimed squarely at the pointy top of the pinhead pyramid.

The only thing casuals will be attracted to Woz is to drop some quarters, and maybe that will be enough.

I agree.

I'm betting with that big video display this thing could have some pretty awesome and eye-catching attract modes programmed!

I hope its a hit....

btw- I LOVE pinball but I would just NEVER fork out $7000+ sight unseen for a machine.... I guess I actually like to make sure *I* like a machine before I buy it.

Let's not get silly here!

I have no skin in this game, but when you all placed your order, was delivery date specifically given? I see on their website, they are taking orders for WOZ for delivery in the fall and for TH with delivery in mid-2014. What was the original delivery date for the first batch of WOZ? If they miss these deadlines, shouldn't they be liable?

Jacks posting wouldn't give me any confidence. I fully respect what they are doing and hope they succeed, but just seems like he's stringing people along and asking them to take a leap of faith. In my book, that should cost him in the form of a discount on WOZ or perhaps a future purchase.

Until Jack delivers the game there is no price competition for Stern. Once Jack delivers games and people have the option of which game to purchase. Then the prices should reflect the different build qualities

At the time speeches, especially by presidents were expected to be two hours or more. The Gettysburg address became more popular with time. And still popular to this day because the length translates well into modern society.

LTG : )