Quoted from Aurich:Licensed themes are easier to sell. No question.
My point is simply that I don't think there's really enough evidence to say unlicensed games won't sell. It certainly helps to have a name like Pat Lawlor attached. And a budget, professional artists, etc.
It's not enough to just be original, you still have to be compelling.
I agree, the whole "no unlicensed themes" thing is too heavily latched on to because of a few "profile" people making comments about how bad an idea it is. (Primarily Stern and Ben Heck). There are many reasons that AMH didn't fly off the shelves instantly. But it is still by far a better business venture than Predator at this point, whether or not Predator does eventually get finished.
It allowed Spooky to run their own project with no apologies, get a working pin out there and prove to everybody they could do it. And make money! Now they are working on a 2nd pin which is seemingly a licensed version of their zombie idea... but in my opinion with the lessons they learned from the unlicensed AMH, they could go unlicensed again and have game #2 fly off the shelves because people know they have learned from mistakes in AMH. (Better artwork, lighting, music, voice acting or what have you... i haven't seen AMH in person so these are just examples).
Given the production potential at Spooky (a few pins a week) I think it could actually be a better move to go unlicensed. Keep control of your project, and sell out 250 of an unlicensed theme. The pinball world trusts them now to have a quality product, if they can hit a good price point it's a match made in heaven. Especially with Stern Pro prices creeping up.