Quoted from Methos:
That I agree with you on, no one knows for certain.
The issue that I have with your posts (and others), is that you disallow past historical precedents as irreleveant.
Unless you are going to go back 100+ years, there isn't really a precedent. Additionally, if you go back that far, the world was a far different place and number of people than now. If you want to use past as examples though, look up the comparisons done on cities that quarantined and locked themselves down versus cities that didn't for the same epidemic.
What is similar is the exponential spread given how it is spread. While death rates may be lower than what is being reported now and lower comparatively to other outbreaks once it is all said and done, we don't actually know how many people are infected with it or what the true mortality rate is.
I agree, there's lots of scares over the years that don't amount to a whole lot, but it isn't because people sat around and did nothing. There are various reasons none of which were ignoring it. The big difference here is this one got out and exploded rather quickly. Is it worth calling off everything as has been done? I can't say, but it certainly can't hurt. All it really does is cost some people some money for a time. That should be considered a lower priority than potential lives lost. The important thing being they still don't 100% understand this virus, whereas they know A LOT about the flu and that it is mostly predictable (mostly).