Certainly the competition to date has not been huge, but no matter what they say their market share has been reduced. Stern had 100% of the NIB market, and now others have sold NIB machines, so by definition they no longer have 100% of the market. However, that lower share is of a market that has been expanding, and likely has expanded enough that they have not seen a reduction in their sales, and with price changes, likely increased revenue, but that does not mean they have not lost share. As the market growth slows and the competitors get up to speed, that loss of market share is going to grow and will hit the bottom line (although if they keep jacking up prices, that also minimizes that impact).

JJP has shipped quite a few machines and is now on their third title.
spooky is now getting ready to build/ship their third game, even if it s a 'speciality/custom' item
Dutch Pinball has been shipping machines
Heighway is shipping machines and getting closer to they first licensed theme game getting to production.
Multimorphic has shown production samples and will soon be shipping machines with multiple games
Homepin is showing progress towards their first pin, but still seems a little ways off, and really see minimal sales in the US.
American Pinball has suddenly shown up on the scene, apparently manufacturing Magic Girl for Zidware/Jpop, but also working on their own pin (Houdini)
Chicago Gaming has shipped MMr and will likely be announcing another game soon.

Certainly possible if not likely that some of these companies fail, however, it is clear that competition is here, and it will impact Stern in one way or another, and only time will tell how they respond.

They will be in for a rude awakening when they go to sell, assuming the buyer knows what to look for. I'm sure plenty of newer collectors would assume that the ghosting is normal.

Certainly distributors could choose to notify all of their customers, which would certainly increase loyalty from them. although would not surprise me if Stern has threatened them not to do that.

Stern is about the bottom line. Not only does stuff need to be rolling off the line, but games need to be profitable. If a game is not selling well, not surprising if they try to cut their losses by not finishing code to the degree many of us would want. I'm sure their attitude is that as long as the game plays and is relatively bug free, it is good enough. This of course gets us to the chicken and the egg, if sales are slow due to incomplete code, then code won't get done. At the same time, very complete code can't always save a machine that has fundamental design limitations or just a crappy theme. You can also see how games with great code can get 'additional editions', since that gives them the chance to leverage that successful code into more sales. I have to think that the initial reaction to a game has a factor on how much Stern is willing to invest further in a game to make it deep and 'complete'.

As we can see, there are buyers who will be ready to buy, basically sight unseen, when Lyman is doing the code, but are more wait and see, when it is someone else.

As we know, operators are less concerned about deep code, so accordingly, on games that don't seem to register with collectors, Stern will also be less concerned.

Their history and the machines they make are a big driver. Gary has been in business with operators for years and years, and that is the bulk of his business. He needs to make/sell machines that work economically for those businesses. The LE/home collector is the cherry on top. Jack went at it differently, they wanted to create a very high end machine, that they had to understand would have less appeal to an operator than a less expensive machine that they can get their return on faster. While WoZ and TH are amazing machines, and could do well on location, can they do twice as well as a stern pro?, doubtful.

We have seen a trend with Stern, some games are designed to a be deep and feature rich (GB, AC/DC), others are designed to be good on route, less stuff that can break and go wrong, quicker return on investment for op, (e.g. WWE). Them trying to achieve both on all machines is not realistic or smart. Obviously success of a machine, out of the gate, seems to influence how much additional time is spent on software after the release (and also seems to sometimes determine if a premium or VE will be made or not).

Yes, I do. They probably don't say 'sell like crap', but 'will be less appealing' and accordingly will be developed differently as far as investment made. Again, the home market is not their number one priority in decision making.

Do you really thing success on route is based on a game's depth? I was at an arcade this weekend, they had five pins, including a GB, that I saw in constant play, but clearly by people who had little clue about pinball, rules, etc. Those games are only generating money if they are up and running, and the more complex a game is, the less likely that is the case on location, the depth of the game is certainly not the most important thing in that environment.

The home market is only going to buy so many games, I think Gary and team are smart enough to know that and invest the resources on each game accordingly. Will they typically have an LE for those collector types who will buy regardless, sure, why would they not, and we all know sometimes the cost difference is not justified based on the game differences. Again, they pick and choose were to put the resources based on how and to whom, they think a pin will sell.

I never said 'make crappy games', just that some games are going to get more resources and depth based on whom they believe the market it is and how well it will sell. if you think every game is going to be as deep and complex as LOTR or AC/DC you are kidding yourself.

They don't ever want to make "crappy games", but they know not every game has the potential to be a big seller and you allocate resources accordingly.