I tend to agree with you. We may not be out of the woods yet, and this may just be the summer dip. But I’m seeing machines priced well for this market sit around for weeks before they sell. Motivated sellers could start dropping prices soon.

Just because it's an LE doesn't make it fun or desirable. Looking at you Turtles and Zeppelin.

TAF up $2300/yr since 2019.

TAF (resized).png

Eh... to an extent... but the price of all pins will still continue to rise. What you will see is the price of in hand Stern pros/premiums come down to at or below MSRP. That World Cup Soccer, Black Knight 2000, and Baywatch will continue to slowly rise in value and is not coming down anytime soon. I think the proper price for a lightly used Stern Pro/Premium ought to be about MSRP - $500. Thats what it had been historically before the COVID madness. Once you can walk into a distributor and buy any game thats been on the line in the past 6 months NIB with no wait, people won't pay over MSRP for Pros/Premiums. If Stern can meet fulfillment demand within a few months they will be good. I think the LEs/CEs will continue to trade above NIB prices so long as there is more demand than supply.

I would also like to state that of my 30ish games I've rotated through my basement in the past 4 years, I have bought exactly one "last pin" from someone getting out of the hobby. However, I have now sold 6 pins to first time pinball buyers... meaning there are way more people getting into the hobby than getting out of it. Supply can expand forever on new machines, and remakes will be made for generic licenses, but old licensed pins will likely never be remade, and the customer base for those is only growing. An Addams Family bought this summer will likely be the cheapest you can ever find.

Apologies, it's been a while, and you just teed it up way too nicely.

It has appeared that the insanity has been ending for at least 23 years:

2000:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/gzU8ZAOxvUE/qII_fx4klQ0J

2001:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/3XZf_itbXjY/QI04T4Qr9UkJ

2002:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/8CDhldb5kyw/JxQRQPIGmQwJ

2003:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20market$20price$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/clAO0zIHHfQ/CbExiOZrldIJ

2004:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20decrease%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/pXZDb-2V6Yk/GSPWq06-nWsJ

2005:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/ACTs0HpQktA/x-C5LZAF180J

2006:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20price$20bubble%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/dBrqPnk7mkk/nQYyh65_fewJ

2007:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pinball$20prices$20fall%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/femnxuH8a1k/oeXzsItDbOQJ

2008:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/44iMVjwb68o/wXb8-3F9vOIJ

2009:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/JsgTrS05pCc/8pB5t9oUqTAJ

2010:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/pricing$20market%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/hNRZGnOAZ-Y/bs8Js1M7sUAJ

2011:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.games.pinball/high$20prices$20market$20collapse%7Csort:date/rec.games.pinball/DlcZoruS0Bo/VO_cueyPCEQJ

2012:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-think-it-cant-happen-think-again

2013:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-price-bubble-will-pop

2014:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/this-is-not-a-rebirth-of-pinball-its-a-bubble

2015:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/we-all-want-the-ass-to-drop-out-of-pinball

2016:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/when-will-the-stern-bubble-burst

2017:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/are-we-in-a-pinball-bubble

2018:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/why-i-feel-pinball-prices-are-going-to-plummet

2019:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/will-pinball-prices-come-down-

2020:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/prices-dropping-

2021 (this year was a fuggin BANNER YEAR for price bubble threads...maybe it's something in the vaccines! here's a pathetically partial list):
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinball-pricing-bubble-due-to-covid-one-nine
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/similarities-with-pinball-market-amp-the-2008-housing-crash
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/next-pinball-depression-
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/how-to-feel-about-these-exorbitant-pinball-prices/page/2#post-6254131
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pingreed-is-a-cancer-is-there-a-cure
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/prices-of-pinball-machines-today#post-6229413
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/pinflation-or-inflation
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/price-gouging
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/f-you-stern-and-your-price-increases
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/are-pinballs-the-beanie-baby-craze-of-the-2020s
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/we-have-jumped-the-shark

2022:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/it-appears-the-insanity-is-ending#post-6954499

This has been (still is, IMO) a different type of insanity -- where people can flip premiums because of scarcity. Where a game can be on the line at Stern but people can sell used ones for significantly more than NIB because of scarcity. Do any of those links apply? (sorry didn't bother to read them all).

I've noticed more reasonable prices and longer sale times, but only slightly.

It could just be seasonality, summer sales usually slow down a bit.

Could be Stern working through their backlog since they didn't release a second game yet this year.

Could be the price of gas or general inflation is slowing sales.

But I agree with the comments above, the upward trend will continue, as I haven't seen a real jolt to the pinball market yet.

ANd here I had everybody thinking I typed that up freshly every time!

Foiled again by another Pinside Columbo!

I think pinball is very seasonal for alot of people. More people going on and spending money on vacations, home improvements, etc., and just spending more time outside. I probably engage with pinball half as much in the summer as I do the rest of the year just because I want to spend my time and money elsewhere.

Its a summer lull. It happens every year with an exeption of last year. I've been selling games since the early 90s. In 2020 just as things were starting to lock down I was picking up stern pros for about 4k routed. Last year everything was unpredictable. Trust me prices will rise in the fall but probably not as nuts as last summer.

Summer. Everyone is out doing other fun stuff right now. Oh...and $20k by Christmas.

No, the new saying is "$200 by the All-Star Break"

Margin calls are a bi-otch.

I never thought "10K by Christmas" would eventually mean a lower price.

Going down. Groceries and gas are more important for people. Along with diminishing 401ks, out of control inflation generally etc etc

Doubt prices drop through the floor but settle down to more reasonable levels. Supply and demand and an economy likely heading into a recession at some point this year or 2023

Think the hobby was strong right before and after Woz emerged? Nope. Bought a NIB LOTRLE on close out for $5k. SM and many other pins “on sale”.

Stern needed an investor to stay in business

TWD? Stern initially said they weren’t even going to make “premiums”.

Maybe we go back to 2016 or so levels short term. Not that long ago

A lot of people look at pins as “investments”. The risk/reward is to the downside.

Pins were never meant to be “investment vehicles” play them, look at them, share them, enjoy them. But dont expect investment income as an individual and you’ll do fine.

I dunno about that - at least the last 2 years. I sold 2 pins in the last year (Oct 2021, February 2022) with a 54% gain. I have lost about 13% in the stock market this year in comparison.

This market is definitely showing signs of cooling a bit, but people with deep pockets here will keep things moving along - albeit at dipped levels of prices especially once Stern gets games cranking out again like they have the last 2 weeks or so (and then see people here immediately put them FS at $2K above MSRP - nice job there...). Don't expect to see TAF for $4000 anytime soon (read: ever).

Like others have said: things like groceries, gas, shelter, clothing just might hold a higher priority than box of Christmas lights on 4 legs.

A lot of forecasting as usual.
Lmk when used Sterns drop well UNDER 10k..
DBA2110E-91D3-459E-96F1-83E22343AAE8 (resized).jpeg

I don’t treat them as investments but as a hobby that doesn’t depreciate in value nearly as fast as others. Purchase price still comes into play. If I buy high and sell low, the real cost of my entertainment goes up.

Some good points there Iceman. I notice prices are still rather higher for new titles but there's some more "deals" here and there. I've seen lightly used HUO Avengers Premiums sell in the $7500 range whereas 6 months ago those seemed to be $8k. Not a huge drop but something. The crazy Stern LE prices are definitely down a bit but still way up compared to the past 2 years.

Older titles, most of the pre LCD era games, is where I'm seeing the biggest drop and "deals". I think the LCD era games are becoming more and more appealing to buyers then they already are which may be causing some to offload their older games.

Personally, and I know some people will disagree with this, I'm buying a fully loaded virtual pinball machine for my next game (already ordered). There's a ton of EM's, Bally Williams era games, and original virtual pins I want to play. The technology is pretty damn good today compared to years past. I'm sure it will be worth half of what I paid 5 years from now but oh well, as others have said none of this stuff is an investment and I can't take it with me to the grave anyway lol.

Virtual pinball?!?!?

The insanity, it appears, is just beginning!!

I know lol. Nothing will ever beat real pinball machines but some of these loaded vpins are pretty impressive. I would love to own 100+ pins but I'll never have the room or pinball funds for them. There's also a lot of titles I once owned that I would like to play again as a vpin.

I don't treat my pins as investments, that being said, if I keep them long enough..every pin I cut loose has sold for more than what I paid for them with ease. If you are of the mindset of moving recent purchased pins to buy another all the time, your mileage may vary. Picking the right pins plays a part also. Nothing new here.

I think when you look at any SS pin from 1978 up to but not including the "modern" Stern pin, prices will do what they always do. Go up.

Now, the modern Stern stuff, the whole LE vs Premium nonsense, maybe that's different. I feel like that's a different market completely, with people who have enough cash to buy these things new. Just like a new car, those prices will go down until at some magic moment they slip into the "classic" category.

Is "Gold Ball" worth over $4k yet?

FWIW... I like Gold Ball. Don't knock nostalgia

It might all go to shit but as long as I can sell blood and semen the hobby lives on

Blood anyway.

It seems that the insanity of in production sterns selling for second hand for msrp + $2k is ending. Back to normal - get it NIB at at a distributor for MSRP or MAP and free shipping; and second hand for MSRP -$300-500.

However, it does seem like the older titles that have always been in demand will always be and still currently are. Many new entrants into the hobby has accelerated that demand - so the A list BW games don’t seem to be dropping anytime soon, and their insane climb appears to still be in progress…but I would suspect is going to level off. When you can get a GZ pro delivered for $6600 or a GZ premium delivered for $8700 or a CGC remake delivered for $8300…newer entrants are going to do that versus drop $10k plus on those 90 titles. Personally, I’d rather stack my collection with minty NIB CGC remakes at a lower cost…

I know of very, very few 90s titles that have ever commanded that as an averaged price. Addams and Twilight are still going to be valued highly, because the theme is part of the draw, not just gameplay.

I dunno, I just like too play!

I am not sure the insanity is ending. Maybe it’s more like a field trip.

D0F3196C-0E74-4DEB-AA89-7EA3D678C48F (resized).jpeg

Thats cuckoo

Except TMNT is fun, desirable, and is one of Stern's more loaded games.

Lots to unwrap here…

Pin values have been resilient for over two decades. In 2001, values saw a pause, maybe a slight dip for a month after 911, then continued to go up up up. Then in 2008, when we had the worst recession since the great depression, pinball sales stopped for about a month, the economy corrected itself, then sales went up up up. Now here we are.

For the last couple years, The market has been primarily driven by the cost of new games. When the price of a new stern goes up, the price of used games goes up. NIB stern prices have gone up 25% in the last 5 years. You could easily say that for the used market. Would you pay $5000 for a fish tales if you could still get a spike 2 for $5000? Probably not.

What about new-used sterns? Right now I’m seeing a lot of Jurassic Park premiums, Mandalorians, and avengers sitting on the market. Reason for this is because Stern just ran those. It will take a while, but These prices will bounce back up until stern decide to run them again. It’s simple supply and demand.

Will demand ever be reached? That remains to be seen. Obviously I feel that if Stern ever catches up with their backlog, and distributors ever have standing, sellable inventory again of new in box pins, that will be the only thing that brings the price of used pins down.

There are a lot more forces at work, but the sale price of new games and the scarcity of them in the current market is really what’s driving the market now. Is pinball an investment? Well, yes.... everyone knows the key factor of a successful investment is what you pay for the investment. Is a $2000 addams a good investment? Uh, yeah..... is a $2000 fireball home model a good investment? Probably not. So, pinball CAN be a good investment, but, if that’s your primary reason for buying pins, than you must be a boring asshole LOL. (Full disclosure I’m in the business, but I do have a collection of games that I would probably never sell).

Mike

I think this gets at it pretty well. Stern (or really anyone else) hasn't released a new game in nearly 6 months. So really, the demand has been pretty flat, to declining - no new games means no huge rush to buy a new game. However, they have worked at chiseling down their backlog... so supply has actually increased (I know they are building the same number of games... but they supplied more games against their backlog). What happens when Demand is relatively flat but Supply increases... prices drop. It isn't quite as clean cut as that, but it I think it gets pretty close. This is one of the reasons I was kinda surprised that Stern paused their release schedule. By catching up a bit they inadvertently cooled the market.

I don't, I went that route a year ago I kept the games I loved from my teenage years sold the rest bought a Vpin and it was the right decision. Its really tough to get the machines you really want ...availability and budget are a big issue. When I sold my last system 80B , the guy that bought it had never played a newer Vpin ...his comment "wow that is really immersive" so for the guys who don't give a crap about the opinion of a pinball purist they are excellent. I find when I play the real machines in the wild I get a lot of free games because the shots from the flippers are the same.

I feel like just addressed the NIB, modern Stern pins here. Or most of that, anyway. The older pins aren't subject to any of the market forces that you've done a great job of outlining. Stern might make more of their recent titles, but they aren't going to make another Cheetah, etc..

Agreed. There’s definitely a rarity and niche collectible value to say, some of the classic sterns. Some newer games too (games like safecracker, cactus canyon before the remake, etc)

Good points, agree. The technology for Vpin's has really come a long way. My plan is to stick with real games from the LCD era (and Ghostbusters as it's my favorite movie of all time) and then use the virtual pinball machine for everything else. I have no plans to ever buy another pre LCD era game once the virtual pin arrives.

It’s just old and worn out at this point.

New games being scalped will end because that’s a sign of a broken market and this corrects itself over time.

Good condition out of production classics will not get cheaper unless there’s a total economic catastrophe. There are so few of them in existence that demand will outstrip supply as long as the economy is not a total disaster.

I’m sitting on a theoretical insane profit myself with good to great condition TZ-CV-IJ-LOTR that I bought 20 years ago for cheap but I didn’t buy them as investments but because I love pinball. I won’t sell them unless I somehow need to should I encounter financial hardship.

Back to normal!

Edit: This was from Season 10 in 2014. Sorry for the ‘blast from the past!’

$2k for a fairly used Twister that they will then try and sell for $4k. Also...it's a Twister lol.

Chum bought Twister for $1K. He didn’t buy Scorpion.

Twister usually follows the $1 per pound rule, so maybe we’re headed in the right direction.

Seller got ripped off bad, really bad.

Yeah, it’s Pawn Stars, so certainly not a litmus test of anything close to reality. I just thought it was kind of funny.

But yeah, the seller got taken for a ride.

I don't think people realize that pawn stars clip/episode is from Season 10, which was 2014.

Ha, good call. It was just uploaded yesterday, so I figured it was newer (plus Chumlee was thin). My bad.

Well, this is where pinball pawn prices were in 2014!