(Topic ID: 170740)

Is this the bubble?

By Russell

7 years ago


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#40 7 years ago
Quoted from sadler28:

Basic supply and demand economics IMHO. There is a bunch of new supply coming to the market and the demand won't be able to keep up. Prices will fall eventually to move inventory.
I've only been in the hobby for a couple years so don't know how things have been long term. I'm happy I'm in this for fun and not profit. Market timing is a very difficult game to play.

i've been on Pinside for several years now and there is almost always a small contingent of people wringing their hands about "the bubble". it's been going on since at least 2012, and i've seen people quote similar posts (from RGP) from as far back as 2005.

in my opinion Pinball is growing, and the demand is real. the housing bubble was fueled by flippers -- right before the crash, 66% of new home buyers never even lived in those homes before flipping them. that's false demand.

when two thirds of NIB games get stored and flipped instead of opened and played, that's when you should worry about a bubble. i would guess right now that figure is something below 10%, which is probably okay. that indicates actual demand for the product, even if you personally think it's overpriced.

#42 7 years ago
Quoted from Friengineer:

The only bubble is in the economy. When the economic bubble pops then the pinball bubble will pop.

luxury hobbies like ours tend not to correlate to the broader economy. there was no pinball crash in 2007, and that was the largest recession since the great depression.

#45 7 years ago
Quoted from Saveleaningtower:

And that is how the new folks in the hobby have changed it. Guys like me were collectors and players.

people should be grateful for new blood in the hobby - it desperately needs an infusion of youth for many reasons, including in terms of maintaining demand. people my age and younger don't have as much nostalgic tie to these games as the 45+ crowd, because by the time i was going to arcades, vids had so far supplanted pins that if the arcade had them at all, it was just a small section in the back and they were often broken. (i remember thinking "these must have been really cool when they were new and working...oh well, back to Street Fighter [or whatever]")

so i think it stands to reason that what is going to interest the younger set is not so much a game's "authenticity" as much as how good it looks, how well it plays, how good it is for tournaments, how deep the rules are, how interesting the layout is, reliability, and how much long-term replayability the game has.

i think the contingent that is concerned with scarcity-based value is in the minority, as every Pinside poll has shown. that is also an indicator that there's not a bubble ready to pop. bubbles arise when speculators and flippers outnumber the people who legitimately desire the product for its own sake. while Pinball does have a lot of flippers and speculators, those folks are greatly outnumbered by legitimate pinball fanatics.

#46 7 years ago
Quoted from forensicd:

I personally want nothing to do with the remakes. To me the originals are much more collectible. Would you rather have an original ferrari or a kit car?

i'll take whichever one is more fun to drive. i'm not operating a museum here.

#58 7 years ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

Greed killed the baseball card hobby and GREED is starting to inflict wounds on the pinball hobby.
Right now I would say STERN is the worst offender with their raising of prices while cheapening the games. BM66 better knock our socks off or it will scar Stern, IMO.

true, but baseball cards were pretty much entirely a naked speculator market from 1985 onwards.

#103 7 years ago
Quoted from 27dnast:

At no time in history has the pinball manufacturing industry been so heavily tied to consumer purchases. They know it, too. Selling and market health variables have completely changed...we're in new territory. Whether the collector market collapses remains to be seen... but I certainly think we're about to see values drop along with the health of more than one manufacturer.

i agree with the first part, but not the second. i think it's going to be a cool and interesting time -- for the first time, we are going to see pinball manufacturers (if they're smart) invest marketing dollars in expanding pinball's visibility as a consumer product to a broader audience. it's really not that hard of a sell, especially if you are peddling a theme that resonates with a broad audience (man, Game of Thrones could have been such a game-changer...)

i mean i know they are already targeting pinball hobbyists, but i think we are going to see them cast their net even wider, and i think that's a good idea (as long as they realize they can't sacrifice quality to do so -- e.g. The Pin).

2 months later
#200 7 years ago
Quoted from Triplecdad:

I have a medium-sized comic book collection. For the first time, ever, I recently sold a few books. As many of you probably know, that hobby had a bubble burst a few years ago for many of the books except the very premiere ones. My point though is a bit different. Among my collection were some very near mint copies of old TV show comics such as Petticoat Junction and Dark Shadows, and couple of very old Lash Larue westerns, etc. Obviously, these were not Xmen Giant Size 1 caliber books, but local comic book stores did not want them even for trade. Finally sold them for very little through the internet to an out of state store. The reason? As several dealers told me, the guys who collected Lash Larue, Roy Rogers, Petticoat Junction, etc., are literally dying off. Today's younger collectors have no idea who those characters were, and so do not care. Of course there are exceptions, but I know that many of us buy and collect machines that bring back memories of pinball play as a kid. We are aging (physically not mentally as we are all obviously still immature!). Younger collectors may one day want an AC/DC or WOZ to bring back their memories of being a kid, but they will have no regards for Black Knight or CFTBL, except as a game they played a couple of times? The bubble may be that the 1980 and 90s games are just not that desirable in years to come, while the demand for Monopoly (ugh) and Spiderman Vault might actually grow. Anyhow, it was a hard pill to swallow that those rare, mint books I had were simply no longer being sought by anyone . . . could it happen with pins?

yeah, definite possibility, but we're a long way from 90s kids dying of old age.

also, counterpoint: i dont think anyone living ever saw Honus Wagner play baseball ....

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