(Topic ID: 170740)

Is this the bubble?

By Russell

7 years ago


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-2
#101 7 years ago

I'm waiting for the Tron LE bubble to bust. 10K are you kidding me? I wish that price would crash but I doubt it. I'm one of the new kids in the hobby. Just picked up two machines. The 90's machines are the games 30s somethings like me want right now so I feel there's good demand for those ones. However I don't think anyone gets into this hobby to make money. They're money pits if anything. I'm expecting I'll be lucky to get out what I originally paid and just lose the maintenance and restoration cost. I don't know anyone speculating in pinball.

Remakes are a joke though. I wouldn't buy a modern remake at any price.

-1
#110 7 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

There are only 400 Tron LE & about half are overseas. Simple supply and demand...only reason it would drop is if Stern made more Tron with the LE features. BTW, you're complaining about high prices, but dissing remakes? Without MMr, restored MM would be $15-20k still. If stern "remade" Tron LE, you'd be first in line to buy one I'm sure.
Pinball's not a money pit if you're patient and buy low. Harder these days, but still possible with patience and a little work.

That was just wishful thinking and I really don't think those LEs will ever come down due to being only 400 as you mentioned. Just a bummer because I had thought about pulling the trigger on one back in 2011 and didn't. I think they were like $7500 or so then? Not sure but I never thought they'd go up in price after that

I wouldn't buy a Tron remake even if it was 1/4 the price. Though I might support if they made a completely new Tron pin inspired by the original. A modern remake of a pin just has no value to me. Not because of speculation or collecting but because I'm into pinball for the nostalgia mostly. I believe nostalgia is what is driving many newer people to the hobby and raising prices on existing supply. But I don't believe people are getting into this to speculate on nostalgia hence a bubble.

If that's what is driving the manufacturers to do remakes then perhaps there is some bubble like speculation on their part. Beware then. I don't know who the market for the MM remake is but its not me for sure (on route maybe?). And I don't think its the newer kids coming in either. If I had a MM remake and opened it up to find there's non serviceable bulbs, desktop computer power supply, and ethernet cables everywhere then how does that remind me of being a kid in the 80s/90s? Its just the wrong era and reminds me how much things have changed. What a bummer. 10K to me is better spent buying TBL because I'm not associating that pin with any particular arcade experience. That's just an awesome movie.

#111 7 years ago
Quoted from herg:

One tip; don't chase the LE. Buy a pro and play the crap out of it.

Realistically this is what I'll end up doing after I get my current two pins restored LE isn't in the cards right now.

#137 7 years ago
Quoted from emkay:

Wait, what? You have nostalgia about a five year old pin that would prevent you from buying a new one if they were still being made? And dismiss it as a remake to boot? I've never heard anyone refer to new Metallica machines as remakes but they've been in the pipeline almost as long. I'm just glad I don't have a TSPPr to unload, by your logic.

Yes I actually am nostalgic for a 5 year old pin but thats really just because I missed out buying an LE new Thats the only new pin I could say that for. And yes I wouldn't want a remake because I did spend an unreasonable amount of time at Disneyland playing their Tron LE in the Tomorrowland Starcade after realizing I missed out on the LE. I must have been a little late to the LE show then if people were getting them for $5500. I thought I remember debating a $7500 price but perhaps that was marked up already Wow what a bummer.

I will likely end up buying and heavily moding pro because in the end the LE banner itself isn't a big deal to me. Having an original release however would still be an issue though. A remake would never be a 100% perfect copy. I want the one I remember, not a new one.

Quoted from Rarehero:

You'll definitely be in a money pit if you spend a lot of money restoring a DE or Sega game!

Did you happen to notice I'm currently working on a DE and Sega game? Yes... its turning into that but I got them expecting that. And I really don't expect to make money on them getting back to the factors that cause bubbles.

Quoted from o-din:

His logic would also have it that TBL would or wouldn't remind him of the 90s?

I would totally have a TBL though I was just throwing that out there because its about the same cost as a Tron LE today. And given 10K spend I would get the TBL over Tron LE knowing I could just get a Tron Pro modded. I doubt TBL will go down in price but I'm hoping 5 years from now its not 20k.

I guess the point I was trying to make was that I don't believe there's a bubble because I know I'm not speculating on pin values. I'm just buying the ones I liked and will continue as long as I can afford them. If I lose money then so be it. These are long term toys to fill the house. That to me doesn't seem like a bubble.

#156 7 years ago
Quoted from Rarehero:

I got JP for $700 and A13 for $800 a few years back...the collectors didn't want them because they weren't Bally Williams...I happily snapped them up and had fun with them for a while!

Nice. I paid considerably more as you can imagine and considerably more will go into them. I guess I don't really consider myself a collector in the sense I don't expect to ever sell or trade them. But who knows maybe that will change someday (no wife, no kids yet). They aren't machines I'm trying to flip. For now I'm not worried about the price as long as its fair value when I bought it. So bubble wouldn't effect me with those but does limit me if people start speculating in those era machines or newer ones like TBL and Tron.

Quoted from Rarehero:

Tron LE was made when they were still doing low-res screen printing on the cabinets...later Tron Pros had high-res decals.

Cool. Didn't know that and I'll make sure to look into that when I buy a pro. I'm pretty sure Tron will be my next machine but that too would be a forever machine for me. Just need to find room for it in the house. Really really trying to avoid turning the garage into a game room even though that would solve the problem.

#157 7 years ago
Quoted from 27dnast:

Anyone dumping $7K into a game in this day in age is essentially kicking that money to the curb. They might get it back. They might get more back...or they might get significantly less back. Total crap shoot. How this all ends for pinball as its own unique entity (and a niche one at that) is a total unknown.

What's wrong with spending 7k on a game and getting less back? The issue is if you're getting into it expecting to make money (bubble) or just getting into it because you want the game. I'm in the camp that believes most people entering the hobby lately are buying up games they want, not to buy to make money later on. If the price rises then cool but I wouldn't think most people are counting on it.

Maybe we should just poll the question, "Is Pinball an Investment or Hobby?"

#190 7 years ago
Quoted from 27dnast:

That's the not the issue (at least how I think about it). It's price, price, price. How much are NIB prices? What are street prices for used machines?
The bubble is the ever increasing prices. Has nothing to do with flipping. Everything to do with what prices are.

If buyers are buying machines with little expectation for them to go up in value.. then wouldn't these crazy high NIB prices mostly just effect the manufactures? Buyers will just stop buying at some point. If the NIB prices reach a breaking point and drop I don't see how that hurts most people in the community? That might lead to fewer manufacturers again if they cant adjust but seems like a normal supply and demand situation.

I noticed there is a poll up today asking people what they would spend on NIB. Looked like most people are already past their breaking point. If BM66 or Dailed In doesn't sell well at those prices the market should correct itself. Though I had to say 10k was my breaking point just because I really do want a TBL. Thats the only machine though I would say that for and I don't like admitting it but its because I'm a sucker for the movie.

Quoted from Russell:

Does anyone have a nice animated wallet-closing .gif? Having seen BM66 and Dialed In reveals, it seems it's going to come in handy.

For everything else recently announced...

CeU-9WZUAAAKWKB (resized).jpgCeU-9WZUAAAKWKB (resized).jpg

On the topic of bubbles... Wow the news lately about the stock market is pretty dire. I don't have the slightest idea about the way the market is going but HSBC sure is trying to make us think nobody will be able to afford any pinball next week.

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