(Topic ID: 170740)

Is this the bubble?

By Russell

7 years ago


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There are 214 posts in this topic. You are on page 5 of 5.
#201 7 years ago

I wish more pinsiders played competitively. Competitive play keeps old games alive! I have no interest in flipperless games or wood rails. I have quite a bit of interest in Wedgeheads and SS games. Why? Because these show up in tournaments. It has NOTHING to do with nostalgia. I didn't even play pinball as a kid, I was playing Stargate, Galaga, Tempest...

#202 7 years ago
Quoted from Triplecdad:

I have a medium-sized comic book collection. For the first time, ever, I recently sold a few books. As many of you probably know, that hobby had a bubble burst a few years ago for many of the books except the very premiere ones. My point though is a bit different. Among my collection were some very near mint copies of old TV show comics such as Petticoat Junction and Dark Shadows, and couple of very old Lash Larue westerns, etc. Obviously, these were not Xmen Giant Size 1 caliber books, but local comic book stores did not want them even for trade. Finally sold them for very little through the internet to an out of state store. The reason? As several dealers told me, the guys who collected Lash Larue, Roy Rogers, Petticoat Junction, etc., are literally dying off. Today's younger collectors have no idea who those characters were, and so do not care. Of course there are exceptions, but I know that many of us buy and collect machines that bring back memories of pinball play as a kid. We are aging (physically not mentally as we are all obviously still immature!). Younger collectors may one day want an AC/DC or WOZ to bring back their memories of being a kid, but they will have no regards for Black Knight or CFTBL, except as a game they played a couple of times? The bubble may be that the 1980 and 90s games are just not that desirable in years to come, while the demand for Monopoly (ugh) and Spiderman Vault might actually grow. Anyhow, it was a hard pill to swallow that those rare, mint books I had were simply no longer being sought by anyone . . . could it happen with pins?

At the end of the day, Comic Books are pieces of paper...most people are happy reading reprints, collected volumes, or on a tablet. An original book that you can't even take out of the protective case? Who cares. Pinball is more than a collectible that you stash away in a closet...it's an awesome playable mechanical experience. Nothing can replicate that. Nothing. Not apps. Not VR. Nothing.

#203 7 years ago

Seems this bubble thing is all perception.

If you're getting close to having no room left for games, or no more disposable income for games and then see the price increases for games across the board... of course it's going to look like a bubble to you.

However, there will be those out there with more free space in their game rooms and plenty of disposable income who can still easily afford the newest games as well as higher priced used games.

Perhaps if everyone's situation were like OPs, then in a sense there might be a bubble because everyone in the hobby would be near maxed out for space and maxed out in terms of what they could spend.

tl;dr -- perspective... bubble to one person is wide open hobby to another.

#204 7 years ago
Quoted from chadderack:

Perhaps if everyone's situation were like OPs, then in a sense there might be a bubble because everyone in the hobby would be near maxed out for space and maxed out in terms of what they could spend.
tl;dr -- perspective... bubble to one person is wide open hobby to another.

You shouldn't make such presumptions. I have a wide open basement with room for 7-8 more games. I still think these prices increases have been too severe and too quick. This hobby has a lot of wealthy people, sure. But, nobody likes to be taken advantage of. This won't last. $12,500 for collectors edition DI? No thanks. $15K for BM66 SLE? HA!

That said, I was glad to see Aerosmith prices at least somewhat close to what we're used to.

2 weeks later
#205 7 years ago
Quoted from Triplecdad:

I have a medium-sized comic book collection. For the first time, ever, I recently sold a few books. As many of you probably know, that hobby had a bubble burst a few years ago for many of the books except the very premiere ones. My point though is a bit different. Among my collection were some very near mint copies of old TV show comics such as Petticoat Junction and Dark Shadows, and couple of very old Lash Larue westerns, etc. Obviously, these were not Xmen Giant Size 1 caliber books, but local comic book stores did not want them even for trade. Finally sold them for very little through the internet to an out of state store. The reason? As several dealers told me, the guys who collected Lash Larue, Roy Rogers, Petticoat Junction, etc., are literally dying off. Today's younger collectors have no idea who those characters were, and so do not care. Of course there are exceptions, but I know that many of us buy and collect machines that bring back memories of pinball play as a kid. We are aging (physically not mentally as we are all obviously still immature!). Younger collectors may one day want an AC/DC or WOZ to bring back their memories of being a kid, but they will have no regards for Black Knight or CFTBL, except as a game they played a couple of times? The bubble may be that the 1980 and 90s games are just not that desirable in years to come, while the demand for Monopoly (ugh) and Spiderman Vault might actually grow. Anyhow, it was a hard pill to swallow that those rare, mint books I had were simply no longer being sought by anyone . . . could it happen with pins?

Book markets are not comparable to the pinball market or modern reading technology.
Nor are Christmas tree ornaments, stamps, baseball cards, or coins.

This rationale makes no sense from the standpoint of both new and old collectors.
If this belief was true, EMs and wood rails would all be in landfills defined as "they are no longer relevant" and nobody recognizes the games, which has not happened.
Some early SS games remain more popular than an single modern SS game, and are well over that 30+ years old.
They command prices equal to modern used games, and are not rare or prototypes.

EMs and wood rails sold more games this year than any period since the early 2000s and at prices equal to many SS games.
They have been on resurgence for years.

Pinball machines more attuned to the classic car market, which follow the same basic rules.

#206 7 years ago

15k for a 66........ Aaaahhh YES!!!

#207 7 years ago
Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:

Book markets are not comparable to the pinball market or modern reading technology.
This rational makes no sense from the standpoint of both new and old collectors. If this belief was true, EMs and woodrails would all be in landfills defined as "they are no longer relevant" and nobody recognizes the games.
That is is not what has occurred.
EMs and woodrails sold more games this year than any period since the early 2000s and at prices equal to many SS games. They have been on resurgence for years.
Pinball machines more attuned to the classic car market, which follow the same basic rules.

Didn't you recently create a thread calling DMDs the new VHS?

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/dmds-just-became-vhs

Now your admitting sales of the older games is stronger than ever?

#208 7 years ago
Quoted from Taxman:

Didn't you recently create a thread calling DMDs the new VHS?
Now your admitting sales of the older games is stronger than ever?

I provided direct insight to correct that particular post several times, I did not create the false observation.
There is detailed information if you wish to peruse my postings, particularly based on market history.
I have seen these same types of postings for nearly 30 years as a collector.
I even tried to explain what the hell went on in the early 2000s for comparison.

My discussion points are the same as they are here, olders games remain popular for specific reasons.
The interest is not going to disappear in a hobby that has had a major increase in collectors of 25-30% of numbers every year since 2010.
Older games are the competition for new games especially once NIB game prices get out of control, which is not a new subject.

I am not going to list every reason in a single thread, or explain them again, so I get the people stating "TLDR".
What I see people doing from this is "NR=NE".
No Research=No Education.

If people want to be educated, great, if not, that is their choice, just don't expect me to be part of uninformed new collector group think when that is not what is occurring in either the industry, market, or from collectors.
Simply put, PinSide is not a proper representation of nature of this hobby, just a tiny fraction of new enthusiasts in general, with a few older collectors thrown in periodically on the side.
You do not even have representation from the two largest manufacturers here, as they have no interest in most of the face palms, and these forums drove them off the site.

I don't normally created conjectural threads, and I certainly do not have duplicate accounts, as I disdain drama.
I only explain the current market trends and developments, along with growth of the hobby to explain to new collectors relevancy.

The facts are simple, certain old games are on the rise again, higher than expected, and it is not an accident or exclusively based on hobby growth or offset market inflation. I don't exclusively focus on pricing either.

You cannot exclusively look at just all EMs or popular EMs together, if you have to looks at them independently.
General EM prices went up primarily due to market inflation.
Popular EM prices went up for multiple reasons, including the increased desirability of ownership right beside many modern SS machines.

I don't make the ruleset games follow or drive them in a certain direction, I only report them.
If people are interested in full details of some of my observations, they may listen to my interviews on internet podcasts.
My recent review of the 2017 developments was found to be useful by people, so people do not make foolhardy decisions.

"Every time the pinball industry thrives, it struggles, as it competes against its own games from the past."
- TBK

#209 7 years ago

I will keep my keepers regardless the market. I actually already now do not care how much they are worthed. I just care owning them, forever.
But of course the argument makes sense for non-keepers. Although there are diffeent segments (new nib, new huo, b/w, ss, etc), I think at the market as a whole: the more machine in decent to good conditions available, the more new blood is needed to sustain the prices. I think Stern is the biggest offender. And actually the only one making money at the moment. But if they keep flooding the market with many machines, prices will overall drop. Not so much on the most popular titles, -most people will keep them - but much more on weaker titles.
Probably Stern plans to grab as much as they can now with nib machines. And after the market for nib will significantly drop, they will focus on selling parts for older machines.
I guess BM66 stupid price is only a classic one-off marketing trick on a bad game for later decreasing the perception of increased prices on future machines. They anchor 15k in your head (as being silly, of course), so that later on you think 6.3k is not that bad after all.

#210 7 years ago
Quoted from Luppin:

after the market for nib will significantly drop, they will focus on selling parts for older machines.
.

Does anyone agree with this? I don't think they could survive on parts sales if they stopped making new product.

#211 7 years ago
Quoted from wayout440:

Does anyone agree with this? I don't think they could survive on parts sales if they stopped making new product.

I explained this in detail in another post.
Reproduction parts production does increase AFTER the start of market stall in response to NIB game cost inflation.
This is based on generated interest to repair older games that are lower cost to acquire by collectors, but still remains at the "whim" of parts suppliers on their indications of sales of what parts they supply, predominantly based on profit in offset of production cost.
3D translite creation overhead costs for example are much lower than trying to make an injection molded ramp, and allow higher profit margins.

HOWEVER, this is not the exclusive responsibility of any manufacturer anyway.
Collectors should consider spare parts acquisition for ANY game, while they are still available.
BUT...
Manufacturers have no interest in supply game specific parts to games after a specific time period (normally 5 years or so), and once stocks are depleted (around 10 years), at which point they are gone, except in some rare instances.

Remember manufacturer WANT people to buy NEW games, not indefinitely support old titles, as there is no substantial monetary benefit to the company.
This is today's model of manufacturing from Stern, not what occurred during the BLY/WMS pinball era of the 1990s to which support game titles in some cases for 25 years (in a limited capacity dependent on production runs and stock).
Games in general are still considered a "throw away toy" at least from the standpoint of an operated commercial device.
Stern has not done anything to change the perception based on their build quality.
JJP is higher quality, but still in the same bucket of rough nails.
All other manufacturers have not been "in the game" long enough to evaluate what they will do in the long run, but I seriously doubt Spooky for example will be providing board sets for their original games 15 years from now especially due to low production numbers.
If I owned a TBL, for example, I would most definitely being buying replacement spare parts for the bowling assembly, and ramps.
Those parts are not going to be available in 5 years.

#212 7 years ago
Quoted from Russell:

You shouldn't make such presumptions.

Why not? It's the internet. It's what we do--speculate

I have a wide open basement with room for 7-8 more games. I still think these prices increases have been too severe and too quick. This hobby has a lot of wealthy people, sure. But, nobody likes to be taken advantage of. This won't last. $12,500 for collectors edition DI? No thanks. $15K for BM66 SLE? HA!

I don't necessarily disagree. Funny story--I just went and looked at a guy's older/early WPC machine that was a bit overpriced. He lives in a very nice 3-level house not too far from here. The machine was a bit dirty, but functional. Had a credit dot. One warped plastic, one broken plastic. He was asking about $600 more than the top quote for the machine and his explanation was "with the way these things are going up in price..." I offered him 450 less than his asking price and then he tells me "well, obviously I don't need the money. No deal."

He doesn't need the money, yet "with the way these things are going up in price..."

#213 7 years ago

Yeah, like the average fucking Joe is trading options on pinball manufacturers...

Until the next bubble thread!

...
..
.

#214 7 years ago

I think xTheBlackKnightx has a very detailed, well thought out response and OP seems to be upset with anyone disagreeing about a "bubble"
I'm still very new to this hobby, only about 3 months or so in, yet my interest was peaked for several reasons. I've always had a fascination with arcade machines, my uncle has an incredible mancave with a huge shuffle alley and some neat golf-themed arcade games. But one of the biggest motivators is that several new arcades have popped up in malls around my area! The arcades died long ago and it's been probably 10 years or more since we had any, suddenly 4 malls opened new ones in the past year or so! That's definitely something, and all of them have at least ONE pinball machine, beaten, bleached, ugly and in desperate need of attention, but as long as they half-work they throw 'em up. I wanted my own, I think they're exciting, fun and very interesting to work on! Best of all, in a sense I'm saving money because I'm not spending it all on their games, I can play mine for free!

I think it's not necessarily a bubble, there is a genuine revival in these things, much like the vinyl revival that's still on the upswing after a couple years. Old catalogs are actually outselling new music, that's a fact, folks. Similar to this is these "kids" are growing up, and even those god-awful hipsters are like "wow maaaaan, I want one of these for the nostalgiaaaaaaa" even they were born in the 90's. The reason doesn't matter, but the money does. People are finding more income, are starting to buy houses again and they want EVERYTHING. Since arcades are still few and far between, it's simpler to just build your own, then you don't even have to go outside.
As long as the economy continues to recover slowly, the market will stay healthy. If you believe there is still an impending financial meltdown on the horizon, one worse than the recession, then yes the entire world is in a bubble right now.
It's your perspective, I suppose and the only determining factor is time.

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