curious if you have made it to either wizard mode yet?

I have been super close to the race one, but not yet.
I have only made the challenge one once and drained promptly

Prices tend to keep going up on pins in the $4k or less category--likely because most hobbyists are more budget-oriented and that Stern has abandoned their earlier pro pricing. So, folks formerly buying $4k pro pins are no longer doing so, and instead, looking towards older games that fit into their price range, thus driving up demand for the pins in this price range.

Pins in the $5k or more category seem to be deflating a little bit. It's probably because since the market is getting saturated with all these brand new pins in that price range all at once, so the older ones in this price range aren't moving quite as quickly right now.

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Where's Houseofpins when you need him?

Let's look at the retro video game hobby. In the last few years companies have started to release their retro games digitally on new systems. A game that costs a lot more for a used copy can now be downloaded for $5. Some feared that this would decrease the value of the original game, but the opposite happened. Most games increased in value as the games were introduced to a new audience. Sure some games went down, but the general trend was upwards. I think that is the period we've just going though with pinball. We had a large influx of new people, myself included, over the last 10-years. This quickly drove up prices. I agree with Whysnow, that prices seem to be starting to plateau. I think the volatility will decrease from here, I don't see prices going up or down as dramatically.

Greed killed the baseball card hobby and GREED is starting to inflict wounds on the pinball hobby.
Right now I would say STERN is the worst offender with their raising of prices several times in a short period of time while cheapening the games. BM66 better knock our socks off or it will scar Stern, IMO.

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I don't pay much attention to market swings. I just keep buying this shit until my wallet's empty.

true, but baseball cards were pretty much entirely a naked speculator market from 1985 onwards.

Thanks for the commentary Pinocchio.

Oh no, not this thread again...

I don't mind if the bubble burts a bit. I am here to buy games and right now NIB is out of control. I want new premium quality games in the 5K range. That is where things were when I started in this hobby. Now, I am having tough time forking out 8-10K for a new game. Last NIB I bought was TWDLE and I don't see me purchasing anything NIB for a while. I probably will just step down to HUO and let someone else take the hit.

If someone wants to sell there kissLE in the 5K range hit me up. LOL

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The only thing i am interested in buying right now is project machines appropriately priced. I don't see those anymore... I actually have given up hunting for them.
So far, anything I want that is in players condition is priced usually about $500+ more than I am comfortable paying.

4. Some manufacturer is going to find a way to solidly step into the sub 5k arena and then others will have to follow. I am honestly surprised that Stern has increased prices when they should be trying to take market share and kill the startups by underselling them.

I think this is spot on. It is the area where supply is decreasing and demand is increasing.

It's considerably less work to sell a single expensive item to willing buyers, rather than several lower priced items--especially if the tworld items are basically the sAmerican product. Less overhead in terms of manufacturing and support.

You've touched on my situation. Somewhere just under 5 grand was the mental limit for me... When I could get Pro's for $4600 I bought two in one year. Taking that number, I could have combined the funds and bought one $8k game instead.

Guess what? I'll never do it. Even though I could afford it, they're just not worth that much to me.

For those that have not been around for a long time, I simply say this, "There is no market bubble."

Read this in its entirety to understand.
If it's TLDR, no problem, you are not the perspective audience.

It is called a "market stall", and yes it is coming due to the potential wealth of released titles in the next year or so.
If it was a "bubble", the market would crash, which it does not and has never happened.
It is not based on "supply and demand", unless you want to look at from the angle of pure cash flow from private owners / operators who refuse to buy new games.
The stall market phase effect has happened FOUR times in the past 40+ years starting in the 1970s alone.
Any successful dealer that has been around for 30+ years can vouch for what I am saying.
There are a few left.
A economy recession is NOT a requirement (although it can directly accelerate the phase), as this is a luxury toy, not a necessity.
It is not a side effect of collectors without space, as this the second shortage of anyone behind the aspect of cash.

The market itself is already showing signs of stalls due to USED/NIB games that have been trying to be flipped for more than they were originally worth either from the factory in box, or played out of the box.
This is particularly true for owner that spend more than $1000-3000 in mods on their game and expect to get the money back, which will become harder and harder as time goes by.
This also goes for all those "HUO games with less than 100 plays" (since the last software update by the owner).
They are just sitting, "squatting in the mud" now in some cases, where a year ago they would sell quickly.
New buyers are going "meh", and moving along to another game, cheaper game, or getting out entirely from the hobby.
In many overseas markets the stall has already happened!

What does exactly happen during a "stall"?
Here are some of the basic notations:

1 ) New game sales trickle due to price increase
2 ) Innovations stop (including releases of so called "limited editions" because people refuse to buy even more fancy versions than the basic games)
3 ) Manufacturers go out of business
4 ) Surviving manufacturers remake old popular titles for profit (as production is easier)
5 ) The number of collectors drop
6 ) Operators sell off their pinball stock or get out entirely
7 ) Top 10 machines stay consistent.
8 ) Lower listed B titles float up and down (based on quality of condition)
9 ) Undesirable games "drop through the floor".
10) Flipping games slows down.
11) Unwanted games get parted out as the parts are worth more than the total machine.
12) New game distributors quit
13) Dealers that did not stockpile old games and diversify, or have long term market experience, close up shop
14) Ebay, CL, and other sales sites quantity of games increase, including pieces of junk.
15) HEP orders flex, as there are still those hardcore collectors out there that want "perfect" games, and are still willing to pay during stalls. They don't give a $#@! about costs, and they are no longer driving the market during the stall.
16 ) Manufacturers are competing against their own past titles in the marketplace. This is important in a stall, and Stern knows this very well now. Ever wonder why Stern is not making more parts for old games made in the 2000s? Hmmm...

What do I (and many other old collectors) do?
We buy many more games.
MANY, particularly project games that need work as it is a great time to source up.
But we also buy NIB games at reduced prices, as swoop into the fray.
Especially those games people "forgot about" in the rush for new game titles.

The last "stall" was 2006, 10 years ago, and repeats in cycles of 10-15 years until prices catch up to the economy with inflation, machine prices drop enough due to collector deflation, or manufacturers stop being greedy, wise up, and revise their prices.
The last part usually fails because the manufacturers go right to the end, squeezing, and implode.
I seriously doubt Stern will make this mistake again from the 2000s, as they paid dearly, and almost folded.
What will most likely happen will be a famous Stern "Sale, Sale, Sale"! on games from the manufacturer.
When you see this happen, we are already in the thick of things.

The only problem with this is they no longer directly sell games to owners, as the parcel them out to distributors.
This means those distributors they trust will get the deals, and rest will dry out and blow away like fall leaves.
These are called "production closeout overstocks" for those that are not aware of the term.

People should realize most of the games Stern produces RIGHT NOW cost LESS than $5000 to make, and with LEs they are extensively increasing their profit. Boutique manufacturers production costs can be much higher.
It has NOTHING to do with game licensing either, as this is based on quantity sold, not just an arbitrary figure.
This aspect is manageable, or a game title never gets built.
You cannot make a machine that is profitable if a game costs over $500 license per game, on top of any negotiated IP cost. If the title fails the manufacturer goes red.

The last stall before 2006 was around 1996-1997, with Williams.
Gottlieb did it, Williams did it TWICE, Stern did it before, now it's happening again.
How fast it will happen it completely dependent on the manufacturers right now as they are artificially driving this train forward.
My estimate is around 2+ years.
How long it will last is unknown.
The last stall ended after around 4 years and prices resumed their upwards spike.

If collectors/potential future owners are smart, keep their hands away from their pants, and keep their wallets and coin purses inside their pants for now, they WILL BE rewarded.
There are a number of game titles right now NIB/HUO I am watching carefully for future purchase.

I don't need to do a crystal ball "prediction", as it is inevitable.
People say "it never happens" because they were not around for the last iteration, over and over again.
Just be ready when it occurs, and try to not look at private purchased games as "investments", as owners will lose in the short term.
In long term, it will not matter, as if you hold onto a game long enough and take care of it, it will retain its value when it hits its final "bottom rung" of flatline collectibility.
Who knows may it will be worth more?
The test of time decides.

I agree that NIB is the portion of the market most likely to see major changes in coming years.

I've held to the belief that if there were a "bubble" it will be seen through private equity and investors moving away/pulling out from the pinball market.

Should hard times fall (stalled sales, recession, etc) the failure of some of these boutiques/small manufacturers could make cash extremely hard to come by for others. What would happen to JJP or Stern if their private equity began moving towards liquidating their shares?

That being said, I really like the fact Spooky shows a desire to grow slowly and rely on reinvested profits rather than private equity. I wonder at what point they'll need to reach out to continue growth.

Maybe I'm in the bubble. I really don't have room or justification at add more and I like what I have so much I would have a hard time selling.

As others pointed out, your correlation is kind of odd... I would expect excitement, not a desire to step back from collecting on the heels of the announcement of a half dozen new titles at the same time, something we haven't seen in decades. If all these games were Stern-style mass produced, then we may see a bubble, even if brief, but most of these announcements are more of the limited edition type games.

You may also be getting spoiled by being able to play all the new games on location, but we are largely missing games older than 10 years old... that's the sweet spot for collectors, and actually that is how it used to be "back in the day" right? New games go on location until they stop earning and then they go to collectors or warehouses. It strikes me as a very healthy pinball environment right now.

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I cannot comment on new, nor would I say the bubble has burst. It does look and feel like that many titles are selling slowly right now.

I have seen a lot of machines sitting though and not pulling prices they were in the first half of the year. This is across the range on dmd machines, but some titles seem immune to this.

From my perspective its too soon to say that is a permanent trend. Prices tend to lower in the summer and then raise as you reach xmas. Will be interesting to see what happens, but for me? I hope it bursts. It would allow me to purchase a few more titles.

Bubbles usually require a catalyst to burst. I know that because pinball prices stayed the same or increased during the last recession that people think its a recession-proof hobby, but I would disagree.

The hobby has expanded with many many new collectors, which is great! That expansion coincided with the last recession, which kept the prices afloat. I think the timing of the new collectors entering the hobby was mostly coincidence. But not all collectors have the same financial profile. There's people with large net worths who get every LE. And then there's people buying games on the margins with bonus money or a small stock market win or something.

I believe we're overdue for another business cycle contraction/recession. When that happen the wealthiest will still buy games. But the collectors who need to raise money due to a job loss or business slowdown will not be buying and probably be selling. The decreased demand combined with the expanded supply of new games and new manufacturers will lead to lower prices. Because the total collector count is still well above what it would be 10 or 15 years ago prices won't go back to the 'good old days' that I missed out on. But I think we'll see a correction in prices. If I had to put a value on it I would say 30%. That's what the housing market fell. I conflate the two because pinball and houses are both illiquid and require time and effort to sell, unlike stocks.

Other factors
I also wonder whether pinball as a hobby could be a trend or 'fad' for some. Will the new collectors who entered the hobby 5 years ago or less be collectors for life?
Pinball prices are regional in some sense since its reasonably a pain to ship a game. and most games do not change hands on eBay so prices paid are opaque. Will a price decline hit some areas first? Since I think the next recession will come out of California and the second tech bubble, I would imagine it might be harder to move games there and could be the start of the price decrease. (Also helps that this is where the games are most expensive in the US anyways).

I love these bubble threads that pop up every 6 months since the inception of Pinside. Oh no the world is coming to an end-Apocalypse now!

The only way of the bubble bursting is if there is a major economic event that would lead to a depression not a recession. In todays world and economy it is not realistic. I see the pinball industry doing well for the decades to come, especially with the integration of new technologies. What do Pinball manufacturers and drug dealers have in common? They both supply addicts

IMHO while I was selling XMLE I had a hard time, not just getting the price I wanted, but I was not getting any interest at all.

I think it may have been a combo of things with that title but the timing also was not optional

- people can get a Met or TWD for similar money or less
- people may have already owned that title (the target buyers might already have it or had it in the past)
- people may not like that title (although it's a good pin IMO, it's kind of polarizing)
- people may have just got GB, TH or were gearing up for the new titles
- the market seems to be softer throughout, I know people trying to sell tspp, RBION, WoZ for a good price but no interest

I think there *is* a softening in the market but not a crash, when prices go down, people tend to expect more reductions when prices go up people expect it to continue. IM was hot 2 years ago before the VE and people couldn't get one, used IM were selling for bank because people thought it was on the way up and so they said pay now before its higher tomorrow, the opposite happens too when one XM sells for less they think the more they wait the lower it'll be tomorrow.

I think more will than wont...

My logic and personal love affair with pinball is that it is not 1 hobby but MANY all wrapped into 1.

Collecting
Repairing
Building
Moding
Playing
Competing
Traveling to shows
Socializing
Running/hosting events
Making mods
Making 1 off games

The list goes on and on...

Pinball seems to retain interests because there are so many ways to dig in and most of the things can be done regardless of age so the hobby can stick with us.

Pinball is my golf, but better!

I have nothing to ad except that I am no longer looking to buy games. I visit pinside once or twice every few days where as before it was once an hour. I am priced out what I am willing to pay for a game. If things ever return to earth I will be back to buying. I only have space for a few more anyway.

Excellent post.

I'm an avid collector as you guys probably know. I'm not a Jonny come lately but my collection (5 pins) was stagnant and not being played a lot. I had TOTAN TZ IJ CFTBL and PotC in my collection in 2012. But I was not in to the hobby as much any more.

At that time I was thinking of exiting the hobby or scaling back to just 1-2 pins.

BUT at this time when I got *more* interested there had been an upswing in the hobby that past few years, IM and Tron had been out just shortly before. XM (was just coming out and had a lot of buzz) ACDC had just come out and WoZ already had its following although we didn't know how long it was going to be delayed.

Followed by good pins like Met, TWD, ST, MM, TH, and a dozen other pins in the last 4 years.

My collection added in this order

XMLE
Tron
ACDC premium
SM
STLE
IMVE
TSPP
MET
TWD
LOTR

So I was partly responsible for the surge but at the same time cost, space, and time (ability to play 9+ pins) is working against me. I'll still get a few more pins maybe one a year but not like 3 every year.

Not saying I'm less into the hobby but my limit is getting closer so I'm less likely to buy anything new. 4 years ago I was prime and ready for a surge. Now I'm more in a slow burn as far as new pins.

Could be other collectors are in my predicament too.

Agree, but for many there is a limit to how many machines they can own. Space/money requirements being one. Unless you have a constant influx of new collectors eventually many will be at capacity and simply maintaining what they have.

Yes unless something odd happens like say China (Vast middle class and upper class too) if they somehow got into the hobby and wanted to import pins from US. That's a big if.

But I'm just saying the market for 30-50 something guys that are into pinball doesn't seem to be growing that much. Sure some new guys especially if JJP kind of kicked the same old same old pinball into a different level. But even that really might have a limited effect unless an untapped market like China comes out.

I'm sure there will be the hipsters like Kenada come in, but he had a grand total of one pin contrary to all his wind bag noise. Guys like Houseofpins burn brite for a minute but also burn out just as quickly.

This is a good thread / good discussion. In the year plus that I have been buying games, I have gone through 3 cycles already. NIB Stern, three Bally DMDs, sell all Bally DMDs to buy NIB Sterns, and now I am getting my first EM today and looking for an early Solid State. I think many collectors go through similar cycles. No bubble, but there are price adjustments coming for certain categories.

Plus lately the Stern greed is really pissing me off! And I am a big time Stern fan...

I can also think of people with 40 machine collections that are just flat out of room. I am at 5 and while I *could* fit up to 9 I would rather not. Right now I have a budget of 4-5k that I have been sitting on for what feels like an eternity now. I could stretch that to a nib premium if I waited till I sold one of my radicals.

3800 banzai run, passed and so did everyone on facebook, here, and klov. I talk to the op who was selling it from time to time and despite the pics on here it was fully working.
That big atlantis thread? I offered 700 and despite all of whysnows yammering, no one offered more. Last I heard op was going to shop it, leave the sound card non functional, and try and get 1k.
1900 dollar godzilla
675 Soccer Kings (FB)
1300 dollar breakshot (unshopped) (CL)
1400 dollar breakshot (here)
4500 huo BBH, two different ones and one was very highly modded
Multiple BSDs from 2400-2800
Ripleys from 2700-3300, have seen 4-5 of them in the last month.

Heck that sample gnr on here at 4200 is a good deal compared to last years prices. Granted the seller is a piece of work, but it has not exactly sold in a heart beat.

Wife wants a Breakshot but at those prices it is a no go. Game is way too shallow for me. 1k for a nice one is my upper limit. Though last year at this time some well known good pricer was asking $1800 for one that was a little rough.

I'd like all 3 production capcoms and this is the last of them. (Flipper football isn't a traditional game and bbb is ipb)

1300 I went up to 1100. Pictures made me question if the dmd was outgassing. It needed a full shop job and has been sitting in storage for the last 8 years. People are clueless about pins and I had some serious reservations as to their saying "everything works". Flippers were a mix of capcom and williams.

Fun game, and I will get one eventually, but you are right it is shallow. It is an early ss interpretation of a dmd and while rare the turn over on them is very high. The one on here is unshopped and at 1400 its just not worth it. I know of two shopped ones at 1500 and 1650 and frankly just cannot justify it.

To be clear, slower sales at a little less $ vs last season is a normal cycle. Think of a bubble bursting as a catastrophic decline in value and interest.

I think prices are going to go down across the board on used pins, mainly because for the first time there are quite a few good choices on new pins so guys will be looking to buy those not all scrambling to grab a used game that pops up, also selling at the same time for room/cash to get that new pin will increase selection in the used market. Unless new blood keeps getting in the hobby..

nope, it is capcom. First 13? were Capcom and the IPB ones were just someone else doing the maufacturing but still capcom.

First 13 were prototypes although I have heard the number was 20. The IPB ones had some changes made, side art, lighting, before being made. End of the day though BBB was not a production title and neither was kingpin.

Really seems b-c titles are up and A listers are staying the same or maybe down a little bit but overall seems like a healthy pin market for all pins.

actually someone did offer more... I can confirm that.

I have an email saying they didn't and I can very much confirm that.

Over here in the UK the Brexit situation is crippling the exchange rate to USD. A couple of years ago I bought a NIB Stern Premium at around £6k. The same Stern Premiums are now £7.7k (and all signs point to the exchange rate dipping further yet)

Because NIB prices are going up, the number of buyers is more limited, which means less old games being sold (so 2nd hand games retain or increase in value also). We're also still seeing newcomers trying to buy into this hobby. Prices are just nuts right now.

Maybe the new releases at Expo will shake things up a bit when collectors sell their old games to buy new. Right now though I'm pretty happy that Heighway is one of the few machines that seems very competitively priced. Add on the fact that playfields can be exchanged at a fraction of NIB cost and it seems a no brainer. Really hoping that Alien will be a success for them

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At no time in history has the pinball manufacturing industry been so heavily tied to consumer purchases. They know it, too. Selling and market health variables have completely changed...we're in new territory. Whether the collector market collapses remains to be seen... but I certainly think we're about to see values drop along with the health of more than one manufacturer.

Yea, I'm saying maybe in the near future, I agree for now, I'm just wondering with jjp3 coming, aliens, bm66, (maybe nib AFM/MB) and the other new ones like spooky, gb, twd, nib mm etc guys may focus on buying new and maybe not grab that taf or tron or whatever they have been wanting. Probably not just because lots of guys wont spend more than eg 5k on a game so wont take part in the new releases. We'll see I guess, all I'm saying is there has never been this kind of selection before.

I said it yesterday elsewhere on Pinside... My Tron can be worth $6000, my Tron can be worth $2000, I don't care. I love playing Tron! Same with every game in my house. The outside value doesn't matter, it is there because I enjoy playing it. If I no longer enjoy it, I sell it. When Stern says $15k for what will likely be a warmed over BDK, that's fine too. They are not selling that to me.

Pinball is an awesome hobby. The social aspects are the real core of it. Don't let anger at money grabs take away from the real fun of the hobby. Invite a couple friends over, feed them pizza, chips, and beer, and compete on an old beater of a game. The fun will follow quickly.

Gotta say, I HATE the flip sellers. While it's a person's right to do so, it certainly is an enemy to more egalitarian access. There is a guy in Portland who snatches up every goddamn machine and runs up the price. So people who might've gotten a good deal on a home game theyd have kept get screwed, making collecting less affordable for most.

Yes, now go away.

I disagree. Games are everywhere and one single person could never buy them all. You need to work on your pinball people networking skills, if you feel animosity toward "that the guy in the shadows snatching everything up". Got news for you, he/she is a figment of your imagination. I love when people price games way high. Makes all the reasonably priced games that much more desirable in my area.

Also, the average person looking for their first pinball deal on the internet is doing it wrong and has so little experience buying games, they should probably leave the repairs and shopping a game to the retailers when they are looking to buy.

Yes, there are plenty of shady ass people in every hobby, pinball included. But there are tons of reputable resellers that do some amazing things with pins, giving little care for how much $ they make off of a game. If you are a first time buyer, do business with someone that has a good reputation and stands behind the games that they sell.

Can't you be both? I'm a "collector" in the sense that I have a collection of games....but I happily bought a MMr and enjoy playing it! I play it, and it's part of my collection.

The only thing remakes F up is the high end $15k-$20k restored games...and that's fine by me. It's good for "collectors" and "players" - more inventory of highly in demand titles.

The NIB scene doesn't represent the hobby as a whole. Most hobbyists have old games, love old games, and still like buying/restoring/fixing old games. There's more likely a stall coming within the NIB scene...but not in the pinball hobby as whole. More want in than out, and those getting out aren't flooding the market with inventory.