For those that have not been around for a long time, I simply say this, "There is no market bubble."
Read this in its entirety to understand.
If it's TLDR, no problem, you are not the perspective audience.
It is called a "market stall", and yes it is coming due to the potential wealth of released titles in the next year or so.
If it was a "bubble", the market would crash, which it does not and has never happened.
It is not based on "supply and demand", unless you want to look at from the angle of pure cash flow from private owners / operators who refuse to buy new games.
The stall market phase effect has happened FOUR times in the past 40+ years starting in the 1970s alone.
Any successful dealer that has been around for 30+ years can vouch for what I am saying.
There are a few left.
A economy recession is NOT a requirement (although it can directly accelerate the phase), as this is a luxury toy, not a necessity.
It is not a side effect of collectors without space, as this the second shortage of anyone behind the aspect of cash.
The market itself is already showing signs of stalls due to USED/NIB games that have been trying to be flipped for more than they were originally worth either from the factory in box, or played out of the box.
This is particularly true for owner that spend more than $1000-3000 in mods on their game and expect to get the money back, which will become harder and harder as time goes by.
This also goes for all those "HUO games with less than 100 plays" (since the last software update by the owner).
They are just sitting, "squatting in the mud" now in some cases, where a year ago they would sell quickly.
New buyers are going "meh", and moving along to another game, cheaper game, or getting out entirely from the hobby.
In many overseas markets the stall has already happened!
What does exactly happen during a "stall"?
Here are some of the basic notations:
1 ) New game sales trickle due to price increase
2 ) Innovations stop (including releases of so called "limited editions" because people refuse to buy even more fancy versions than the basic games)
3 ) Manufacturers go out of business
4 ) Surviving manufacturers remake old popular titles for profit (as production is easier)
5 ) The number of collectors drop
6 ) Operators sell off their pinball stock or get out entirely
7 ) Top 10 machines stay consistent.
8 ) Lower listed B titles float up and down (based on quality of condition)
9 ) Undesirable games "drop through the floor".
10) Flipping games slows down.
11) Unwanted games get parted out as the parts are worth more than the total machine.
12) New game distributors quit
13) Dealers that did not stockpile old games and diversify, or have long term market experience, close up shop
14) Ebay, CL, and other sales sites quantity of games increase, including pieces of junk.
15) HEP orders flex, as there are still those hardcore collectors out there that want "perfect" games, and are still willing to pay during stalls. They don't give a $#@! about costs, and they are no longer driving the market during the stall.
16 ) Manufacturers are competing against their own past titles in the marketplace. This is important in a stall, and Stern knows this very well now. Ever wonder why Stern is not making more parts for old games made in the 2000s? Hmmm...
What do I (and many other old collectors) do?
We buy many more games.
MANY, particularly project games that need work as it is a great time to source up.
But we also buy NIB games at reduced prices, as swoop into the fray.
Especially those games people "forgot about" in the rush for new game titles.
The last "stall" was 2006, 10 years ago, and repeats in cycles of 10-15 years until prices catch up to the economy with inflation, machine prices drop enough due to collector deflation, or manufacturers stop being greedy, wise up, and revise their prices.
The last part usually fails because the manufacturers go right to the end, squeezing, and implode.
I seriously doubt Stern will make this mistake again from the 2000s, as they paid dearly, and almost folded.
What will most likely happen will be a famous Stern "Sale, Sale, Sale"! on games from the manufacturer.
When you see this happen, we are already in the thick of things.
The only problem with this is they no longer directly sell games to owners, as the parcel them out to distributors.
This means those distributors they trust will get the deals, and rest will dry out and blow away like fall leaves.
These are called "production closeout overstocks" for those that are not aware of the term.
People should realize most of the games Stern produces RIGHT NOW cost LESS than $5000 to make, and with LEs they are extensively increasing their profit. Boutique manufacturers production costs can be much higher.
It has NOTHING to do with game licensing either, as this is based on quantity sold, not just an arbitrary figure.
This aspect is manageable, or a game title never gets built.
You cannot make a machine that is profitable if a game costs over $500 license per game, on top of any negotiated IP cost. If the title fails the manufacturer goes red.
The last stall before 2006 was around 1996-1997, with Williams.
Gottlieb did it, Williams did it TWICE, Stern did it before, now it's happening again.
How fast it will happen it completely dependent on the manufacturers right now as they are artificially driving this train forward.
My estimate is around 2+ years.
How long it will last is unknown.
The last stall ended after around 4 years and prices resumed their upwards spike.
If collectors/potential future owners are smart, keep their hands away from their pants, and keep their wallets and coin purses inside their pants for now, they WILL BE rewarded.
There are a number of game titles right now NIB/HUO I am watching carefully for future purchase.
I don't need to do a crystal ball "prediction", as it is inevitable.
People say "it never happens" because they were not around for the last iteration, over and over again.
Just be ready when it occurs, and try to not look at private purchased games as "investments", as owners will lose in the short term.
In long term, it will not matter, as if you hold onto a game long enough and take care of it, it will retain its value when it hits its final "bottom rung" of flatline collectibility.
Who knows may it will be worth more?
The test of time decides.