As someone that has sold pinballs to the home market for the better part of 35 years, I have long been questioning how on earth these companies think they can continue on with a business model that includes $8000 pinballs. I know what the magic number is for the vast majority of people based on a whole lot of experience, and it isn't anywhere near eight grand. It is actually under three! For now the market has absorbed it, but there are too many models competing for this market now, and a big issue is going to be people that can afford to do this simply running out of space. These aren't baseball cards people are collecting, and there is simply a finite amount of room. Also, I think for now it is clear that more games will keep on being made, so the whole scarcity thing is going away. I think a lot of people got in more as an investment than for the real love of pinball, and I just don't think those kind of buyers will be around for the long term. Finally, we are seeing more and more public places like barcades, coming on line and while this may help expose new people to pinball that may ultimately buy one, I think on the other hand people will feel less compelled to have them in their homes. The fact that you simply couldn't play a pinball in many areas drove home sales. Businesses like bars are always looking for new revenue drivers, and I think we will see more and more pins on location IF they can buy a model for under five grand or just get used games. Experienced operators will never spend eight grand on a new pin as a rule. They couldn't even manage a decent return on a new $3200 game back in the day, which contributed to WMS closing their factory.

All these factors make a compelling argument, imo, that the trajectory of $8000 games in quantities that will fuel more models cannot continue at the current rate. And, I would love to be wrong! No one knows...the whole home business model is still evolving. I want to see where things are three years from now. It sure is bringing prices down on classic models though, and I think that's good for the hobby because as I mentioned earlier, joe public for the most part has a budget of under three grand, period. Whether it is for pinball or a multigame, the majority just isn't going to spend more than that. Been that way for as long as I have been selling pins. The $3500 plus sale is the exception, not the rule.

You know, this is a fascinating thread you started. The answer as I said before is I don't think we will really know for awhile. It got me thinking though. If you took apart a game and put the components out on a table, I wonder what the value would be. The electronics are not very expensive once you start cranking out the boards in quantity. You have a few dollars in coils. You add up the rest of it....the playfield parts and toys relevant to a particular game, cabinet (not expensive in quantity), raw wire, speakers and the playfield. If all this were in a pile....and anyone that has been around this stuff for awhile can at least visualize this in your head if you haven't actually torn a game down...I don't know...there just isn't that much in hard cost as far as materials go. I used to build video game cabinets back in the crazy video game era and they sure didn't cost much to build when you built in quantity.

So...I assume the vast majority of the cost is in the licensing, R&D, profit and labor. I don't know...I still don't see eight grand plus. In my opinion it used to cost far less to build a WMS game, which quite frankly were imo better made....they had to have been spending far more on the electronics, than it does to build a Stern game. So, the interesting element that I doubt any of us know is how many units does Stern sell of a "hit" title VS WMS games back in the day? Is Stern selling so few now that the ammorization costs are now disproportionately far higher than back in the 90's? I don't know the answer....I just find it an interesting question. If their success has to include $8500 games on most releases, I fear for their long term survival. I commend them for trying so hard to offer games for much less, along side their more expensive ootions. I didn't think that would work but so far it has. They have tried a lot of business models, including Costco (that must have been a total disaster...wish I were a fly on the wall during that time) and they keep on keeping on. I have a lot of respect for them and just hope they can find a way to continue without counting on $8500 games. I am going to go out on a limb and guess that Williams was selling far more games at $3200 than Stern is now and they still couldn't sell enough to make it worth their while to keep doing it. Depending on the home market seems far riskier to me. I applaud their efforts, but in the spirit of this thread I just have to reitterate that if I were forced to make a prediction today, Imo my answer would be no, the demand will not continue in any appreciable quantity for $8500 games. We'll see! Again, fun thread and lots of interesting opinions so far!

But...one thing is very different my friend. And like me, it sounds like you have been around this a long time. There is simply no way in the world anyone can buy pinballs at the prices they are currently at, operate them and make any real money. Virtually every operator I did business with in California in the 80's and 90's griped about how hard it was to make a profit on pinballs they were "only" paying $2695 for new in the box pins, after labor and depreciation costs were factored in. In the 90's the cost rose to $2995 to $3295 and we had to get very creative with no interest one year financing, etc, just to get guys to buy pins. I am good friends with a large operator based in Denver. He is good at what he does and buys right. He has negotiated low splits with location owners where he operates pins. Not only is it not worth it to operate used cheaper pins, but he's getting killed on new Stern pins. He does this only as a service to keep the test of the location for other games and jukeboxes he operates. The only way he can even remotely have a shot at breaking even (which sucks...he needs to make a decent profit, not break even) is selling the games later to the home market. My point is, unlike previous times when pinball made a comeback, the industry can no longer rely on what was the backbone of the pinball industry...the route operator. They cannot afford to contribute to pinball's comeback this time around! If you own your own location and buy your own games you have a shot, but this is going to be a very small segment and they will have to hold their games for a very long time before it would make sense to sell it off for a new title. Meaning they will have the same problem the home market is going to face....lack of space to continue buying.

To my point...it is not profitable for most operators to operate pins, so players are not getting a positive play experience which will just make the cycle more and more difficult. I wish, quite frankly, that guys who can't afford to properly maintain their games, for whatever reason, just sell them off and move on. They are not helping the situation. They are usually only buying new pins to operate the other games but they are just doing a disservice to pin players when they won't properly maintain them.

If resale prices remain high, that will surely work. That is kind of the million dollar question and the point of the thread. I hope you continue to be successful! Sometimes being an old timer can be a negative because you have seen so much. However, if you have a typical 50/50 split with a location you have to gross $17000 plus sales tax to break even on a $8500 game, not including your time and any parts and service costs. I am hearing gross collections per week are still often under $100, which was what they often were in the 90's. That is a tough way to make a profit, but as you point out, if resale values hold you can make it work. That is definitely something new...in the old days you were lucky to get a third of what you paid when you traded it in...operators didn't typically sell their games to private parties. I still think for most, operating pins is a tough business unless you primarily run pins you have paid little for, and you can do your own service. Glad it is working for you!