There has been talk of a Pin Market crash since I got int the hobby a decade ago. TAF and TZ hit $2800 - 3000 and the REC was fll of people declaring that the bubble was about to burst on this thing. MM hit $5000 and people were beside themselves and foaming at the mouth for that crash tha was going to dump $3000 MMs back onto the market. WH20 hit $1800 and it was surely time for this thing to unwind.

It isn't happening. The increase in prices in this hobby is nowhere near reflective of the crazy inflation realized in just a few short years in the Muscle Car hobby. And it isn't like those cars are going for pennies on the dollar now, either. There was an adjustment due to hyper-inflation - which was arguably caused by the auction industry (particularly genius Barrett-Jackson marketing) - in the auto collector market, which has since stabilized and continued to increase prices since the adjustment. There is no equivalent to this phenomenon in the pinball hobby. The prices have risen slowly and steadily - that isn't the kind of inflation that causes dramatic market correction. The only thing that will cause dramatic rollback on this hobby is if Planetary Pinball licenses someone that actually starts reproducing old titles at prices lower than the current market - MM, AFM, MB, etc....

The discussion of whether new Stern machines can hold value at $6000+ down the line, and whether the 90's DMD pins that are the most valuable can hold their current values are two separate discussions.

Will Transformers LE, AC/DC LE, IM Pro, RS Pro, or the other newer Sterns hold that kind of value in a year or two? I doubt it. They were never "worth" what they cost new, compared to better, older games.

Will MM, AFM, MB, CV, or the other later, lower run number B/W pins experience a crash or correction in their market in the foreseeable future? I am not expecting that to happen. Seasonal variances and 10% market blips one way or the other? Sure. But nothing more than that.

I can't ever be sure with titles like TZ and TAF, though. There are so many out there, that high prices might flush more of them into the market and flood it.

Some seem to presume it is "one in, one out" with pins - i.e. If Stern and JJP make a good $7000 machine, then people obviously will sell off an A-List machine and flood the market. But that is a faulty conclusion. If WOZ rules, then I will purchase JJP #2 to add to the collection, and make new room for one more pin. If JJP and Stern produce 1000 new good $7000 machines each, per year, a good number, if not majority, of those will be absorbed and expand collection sizes.

But, take Gorilla for example - he just sold some machines to buy WOZ. But he sure didn't fire sale them. He ot full value, just like everyone else that unloads good 90's machines will get.