This topic is closed.
@delt31, you will be the first guy I call when I need to sell. Fortunately for me, that is not going to need to happen for a LONG time. I’m not independently wealthy, but I have been fortunate enough to weather 2008 and came out smelling rosey. I expect to weather this one as well.
Quoted from Eric_S:CrazyLevi - Uh oh, looks like you're up for a response to a pinball market crash thread!
My guess is that most collectors will hunker down and hold on to the machines they already have. If you can afford a bunch of pinball machines, you can probably afford to weather this economic storm. I do think NIB game sales will probably slow down and high end machine pricing ($5K+) may come down a bit as well, but I don't see a collapse in the pinball market overall. I'd be more concerned with some of the barcades and impacted business due to social distancing and quarantine.
I don’t care to speculate at this time.
Also don’t really give a shit. Bigger things to worry about.
Quoted from 27dnast:Just the past few weeks have had major ramifications for service industry businesses... a lot financial damage and waves can happen in a matter of 4 weeks.
Don’t forget, China has been shutdown for several months. GM sells more cars to China than within the US... the global supply chain has been majorly disrupted. And this has spread beyond China.
China has NOT been shutdown, not even close. I have several large orders going in China now and they are business as usual
Quoted from delt31:I'll take it! PM me
same
Yeah, me too. For folks not fully invested in The market this will be (and already has been) a good time to grab up some equities. 70% of my portfolio is in bonds. Last week I converted that to 50% after the market had dropped 35% this year. Maybe I didn’t buy at the bottom but I think a few years from now that will end up being a good decision.
Likewise, if pinball machines drop big time in prices, I will up my collection. If they don’t, I highly doubt I’d be buying anything.
I get many folks don’t have the liquidity I have and I do think hunkering down will happen. Heck, it’s going to happen for me too in some areas. I think that is only natural.
One thing I had not considered... if locations that operate games have to close until further notice, I suppose there could be some auctions/fire sales. I would probably attend those to buy if that actually did happen.
I have a few pins on location. I feel sorry for the owner of the place if people either choose or are forced to no longer come. I don’t know how small restaurant and bar owners will survive. If they do, it will certainly hurt I would imagine.
Quoted from woody76:China has NOT been shutdown, not even close. I have several large orders going in China now and they are business as usual
The 08/09 problems were from a liquidity crisis. It destroyed credit and made obtaining capital nearly impossible. It was incredibly damaging. The housing crisis was then fueled by everyone being way too leveraged- it was a nightmare.
This current stuff is bad, but I think it will be closer to 9/11 bad. Probably a little worse, but I would be shocked to see things return to 08/09 levels. One thing we will have going for us is pent up demand. After people are stuck at home for 8 weeks they are going to want to get out... and spend.
It is a buyer's market at the moment. If and when things get back onto an upswing people who are able to make good purchases will be walking away with serious cash after the fact if they play their cards right. Myself I am not in that situation and am just trying to get my first pin at a reduced price during all of this while I stand a 1% chance to pull it off. I don't think the economy is going to be impacted as much as people think it is though once the bar-cades and ffc's {family fun centers} get opened back up.
The secondary market is a bunch of collectors though who have money in their machines or traded machines worth value to other dealers or collectors and economic crisis or not i doubt they are going to just give their pins away for pennies on the dollar. Not saying a deal cant be found but its unlikely your going to find a 10,000 pin here for 1,000 bucks because they need to move it fast.
Quoted from DCFAN:Hopefully the manufacturers that survive this realize that they must get their prices down closer to what they were about 7 years ago.
Why? They were selling fine at the prices of today.
Hmmm. 14 pins have showed up for sale in the past 24 hours within 300 miles from me (blessed to live in the NE Pinball market). Almost all list "no trades". Seems to me like the number of used pins for sale is picking up. The Pirates LEs that were selling for 14,000 last month are now listed for $12,000 OBO. I'm not saying it's crashing, I'm just saying that the inventory in the used market is rising. Some of this could be due to Allentown being cancelled, but some of it may be due to people wanting to buff up their cash reserves.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:Hmmm. 14 pins have showed up for sale in the past 24 hours within 300 miles from me (blessed to live in the NE Pinball market). Almost all list "no trades". Seems to me like the number of used pins for sale is picking up. The Pirates LEs that were selling for 14,000 last month are now listed for $12,000 OBO. I'm not saying it's crashing, I'm just saying that the inventory in the used market is rising. Some of this could be due to Allentown being cancelled, but some of it may be due to people wanting to buff up their cash reserves.
It’s cash reserves buff up. Many will be out of work soon. My boss has just been quarantined for two weeks.
There is the business & the hobby.
2008 almost killed Stern, but the hobby was fine. Used games from dead manufacturers kept going up in price.
This will definitely affect the pinball companies. Barcades & public places are closing & rich people are losing a lot of money which will affect home games sales.
As far as the secondary market goes - I think once again, generally, it will be fine. The collectors who bought classics at low prices years ago won’t be motivated to liquidate. What might be different are the NIBNEWBS of the last 5 years. To them, collecting has been a massively different experience than it used to be - it’s only ultra expensive new games. I wouldn’t be surprised if you see some fire sales & value drops of SPIKE Stern games. I don’t see the market changing for games of previous eras.
Quoted from athens95:If you own pinballs and are worried about their value, sell them.
Why would anybody buy something like a pinball and be worried about what it is worth after you bought it. If so, you are in the wrong place.
Do you worry if your house is going up or down in value? How about that big screen TV.
You should worry about your job, as this is where the real concerns I see with this corona issue.
If you bought games you can’t afford and need to be able to sell them at the same or more money than you paid, you should sell now and sleep good at night. And next time you go buy a pinball don’t do it on credit, or with money you need to pay rent or other essentials.
So in your mind concern about the value of your house, pinball machines and a big screen TV are equatable? I think you were trying to make the "investment" argument but that fell apart when you brought up the TV. And why are you going all straw man on buying pinball machines "on credit". Most pinball collectors are not struggling to pay for necessities and are smart enough not to buy toys on credit. And finally, selling when prices are down is bad advice unless you are really desperate; which again, most collectors are not.
Here is my view. Pinball is a "discretionary income" purchase. Many people will have less or no "discretionary income" due to being laid off, reduced work hours, etc. This will hurt pinball manufacturer sales, but not as bad as it will hurt other businesses(bars, restaurants, travel industry, etc.). In the short term I don't think it will harm pinball resale prices. I personally have no intention of selling my games but I wouldn't buy a new game unless I could get a great deal. I don't see this event lasting more than 3 or 4 months, after that the economy will return to normal. If I'm wrong and it drags on longer, manufacturers may have to drop their prices on new games and that will affect the resale market. I think of this event as a pause. It's a good time to get to know your spouse and kids, get outdoors, help a neighbor and occasionally play some pinball.
Quoted from PanzerFreak:No matter if the market goes down, stays flat, or goes up this is the reason why people shouldn't buy pinball machines as investments. I think you almost need to be comfortable that if there value drops to 0 that you will be fine financially.
With that being said it's great having pinball machines at home right now during this time as it's a fun distraction.
All are investments as long as you spend money for it.
If the value of your pin drops to 0 (like an old car) how can you trade it or sale it when you decide to do it? It also can help if you end up unemployed because of this virus.
However, The fluctuations of the market would not change the value of the pin imho
Perhaps.
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https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/how-will-the-next-economic-crash-affect-the-pinball-industry
Quoted from delt31:I'll take it! PM me
You did the best deal of the year. Congrats
During the great depression of the 1930s, pinball had it's greatest decade of new game sales of all time with hundreds of thousands of units sold.
During the stagnant economic of the 1970s, it had it's second greatest decade in sales.
However, since the market has shifted to home buyers and not location over the last decade or so, I think you can throw all that out the window in relation to what is happening now. This is probably already having a large affect on the industry, as shows get cancelled and people find themselves staying at home instead of going to work. And there is no end date in sight or how the economy will fare when the dust finally settles.
Quoted from dpannell:Here is my view. Pinball is a "discretionary income" purchase. Many people will have less or no "discretionary income" due to being laid off, reduced work hours, etc. This will hurt pinball manufacturer sales, but not as bad as it will hurt other businesses(bars, restaurants, travel industry, etc.). In the short term I don't think it will harm pinball resale prices. I personally have no intention of selling my games but I wouldn't buy a new game unless I could get a great deal. I don't see this event lasting more than 3 or 4 months, after that the economy will return to normal. If I'm wrong and it drags on longer, manufacturers may have to drop their prices on new games and that will affect the resale market. I think of this event as a pause. It's a good time to get to know your spouse and kids, get outdoors, help a neighbor and occasionally play some pinball.
The work from people may have more cash do to haveing to buy as much fuel / other commute costs
Quoted from Joe_Blasi:The work from people may have more cash do to haveing to buy as much fuel / other commute costs
That is a very interesting perspective I've not heard before. But do you think the cost savings will add up to a new machine?
I also think that after this is over, the US will realize how NICE it is not to have your days packed with stuff to do 24/7.
As far as used game sales, scrolling thru the pinside marketplace, there are a total of 10 games that say sale pending over the last week. Zero say sold or sale completed. This already seems way lower than normal.
I work for a sub-contractor of Rogers. One of Canada’s major telecom companies.
I was just sent home from work. Whole place is shut down till May 1st. Everything has been cancelled except for emergency calls.
I’ll have to apply for unemployment ASAP. I won’t be buying any major purchases for a while.
Quoted from Rdoyle1978:That is a very interesting perspective I've not heard before. But do you think the cost savings will add up to a new machine?
I also think that after this is over, the US will realize how NICE it is not to have your days packed with stuff to do 24/7.
In terms of short term cash I think it could. In my case I've got 2 possibly 3 vacations coming up that may need to be cancelled (depending on Pinburgh) that are at least partially refundable. We also won't be spending money going out to eat or on outside entertainment for a few months as well as gas/parking for work, etc. Should save on daycare/babysitting as well. It will be nice getting to hang out with my family more working from home. Looking at how this will affect all of the businesses around me though and my long term investments (401K) is depressing. And of course if anyone in my family or circle of friends is gets the virus it could be devastating.
My experience in buying and selling for many years leads me to believe that the higher end collectables will maintain most of their value. Medieval didnt drop at all till the remakes came along. Where the biggest hit to value are the lower to midrange. Newer sterns that are considered dogs with fleas(this is by popular opinions, don't bust my balls because you like munsters or bk3) will drop. People will get pickier on what they purchase. Ft, rs, bsd type games may drop back to the mid to upper 2s while games in the upper 2s will drop a few hundred.
Depending on the length of the mass shut down, we may see a flooded market. Beercade type places may close, along with bars, bowling alleys, etc. I talked to one of my accountants on friday. He was told he may be forced to close for 3 weeks. We just got the word in Michigan that bars are closed till further notice. He also told me if its longer then 6 weeks he will need to close down permanently. I have 14k in games sitting there that will end up in my garage. I am sure he is not alone and we could see many games come along that will drive prices down.
People need their quarantine pin. Can't go out to play, stuck at home watching TV all day gets old fast.
Most people lost more in the stock market than the cost of a pin. At the end of the day at least you have the pin.. 
Quoted from freeplay3:My experience in buying and selling for many years leads me to believe that the higher end collectables will maintain most of their value. Medieval didnt drop at all till the remakes came along. Where the biggest hit to value are the lower to midrange. Newer sterns that are considered dogs with fleas(this is by popular opinions, don't bust my balls because you like munsters or bk3) will drop. People will get pickier on what they purchase. Ft, rs, bsd type games may drop back to the mid to upper 2s while games in the upper 2s will drop a few hundred.
Depending on the length of the mass shut down, we may see a flooded market. Beercade type places may close, along with bars, bowling alleys, etc. I talked to one of my accountants on friday. He was told he may be forced to close for 3 weeks. We just got the word in Michigan that bars are closed till further notice. He also told me if its longer then 6 weeks he will need to close down permanently. I have 14k in games sitting there that will end up in my garage. I am sure he is not alone and we could see many games come along that will drive prices down.
People may also start needing to sell because they aren’t working, too. Such a mess
Now selling my Pirates at blowout pricing, $12,499.99, will toss in a 6 pack of Kirkland double ply toilet paper! lol
In the short term I think we are going to see collectors hold onto their games and only sell if they need to. If this shutdown goes on for 3-6 weeks and then things slowly start going back to normal I don't think we see much change with resale prices. I think that NIB sales will take the biggest hit in the short term meaning that there will be lower sales then usual as more people hang onto their savings. If this is still going on 3-6 months from now then I think we will start to see a drop on the secondary market.
I am about to sell off...Reality is, these games are now effectively worthless.
If you have the kind of money to buy a non-essential EXPENSIVE TOY, & weather this storm, you'll do damn well next year. Until then, they are massive paperweights.
Got to say, I'm a bit stunned it happened this way. Not in a million years I'd have expected it. Panic selling will ensue...and apparently already has.
Quoted from Rdoyle1978:People may also start needing to sell because they aren’t working, too. Such a mess
These are the ones that will lose the most. If I trade my DP pro for a imdn pro I'm fine. Dosent matter if market value is 4500 or 5500. But if I need to sell it and only get 4200 because there are no buyers, then it becomes a loss.
Quoted from PinLen83:I am about to sell off...Reality is, these games are now effectively worthless.
If you have the kind of money to buy a non-essential EXPENSIVE TOY, & weather this storm, you'll do damn well next year. Until then, they are massive paperweights.
Got to say, I'm a bit stunned it happened this way. Not in a million years I'd have expected it. Panic selling will ensue...and apparently already has.
LOL! this is great. freak out much?
Quoted from PinLen83:I am about to sell off...Reality is, these games are now effectively worthless.
If you have the kind of money to buy a non-essential EXPENSIVE TOY, & weather this storm, you'll do damn well next year. Until then, they are massive paperweights.
Got to say, I'm a bit stunned it happened this way. Not in a million years I'd have expected it. Panic selling will ensue...and apparently already has.
Ive always wanted a Maiden! Lemme know what you can do.
Quoted from PinLen83:I am about to sell off...Reality is, these games are now effectively worthless.
If you have the kind of money to buy a non-essential EXPENSIVE TOY, & weather this storm, you'll do damn well next year. Until then, they are massive paperweights.
Got to say, I'm a bit stunned it happened this way. Not in a million years I'd have expected it. Panic selling will ensue...and apparently already has.
I will take that Dialed In today - PM me if you're serious!
My pins are now priceless! Lockdown and my kids and grandkids live 2 and 3 doors away. Hope I have enough spares!!!
Quoted from delt31:I will take that Dialed In today - PM me if you're serious!
Wow you re on a roll today lol
Twd for a crazy price
now dialed in
Quoted from Butch2099:People need their quarantine pin. Can't go out to play, stuck at home watching TV all day gets old fast.
Most people lost more in the stock market than the cost of a pin. At the end of the day at least you have the pin..
If you didn't sell your stock, then you haven't lost anything. Unless the company goes under lol.
There are a lot of people in this hobby with enough wealth and liquidity to not let any of this really effect them or their pinball collections but there are also, especially in recent years, a lot of people new to the hobby who don't have the luxury of collections amassed at days-gone-by pricing ($2500 TZ's and the like). Most of those newer entrants are also not necessarily those with a lot of wealth and high paying jobs. Go look at the "what do you do for a living" type threads...lots of new collectors in a younger group (30s/40s) with jobs like school teacher and other not very lucrative positions. They have built their collections by stretching and straining personal finances and a lot of flipping machines for profit. Those people will be the first to take the heat when the economy stutters, assuming it does and those will be the ones forced to liquidate first.
What happens then? The first group, the wealthy collectors will scoop up the games at discount prices laughing all the way back home and once again the cycle persists...the rich get richer!
Or none of this will happen and prices will stay inflated as they are and we will all be back to business as usual in a couple weeks with no consequence....who knows?
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