Biscarrosse
Quoted from pipes:Wow, hope I can visit your planet one day.
Cross the sea if you dare!
the luxury industrial sector has always been the best performer to weather crises.
(Topic ID: 264212)
This topic is closed.
Quoted from zaphX:H1N1 mortality rate was 0.02%.
CoronaVirus is 2%.
Don't use numbers if you don't understand them
H1N1 is corrected for known cases within the population.
Kung Flu has not been corrected yet and won't be for several years.
Also, 2% is an old metric and not supported through data. Latest estimates peg it closer to 1.5% and we still aren't correcting for known carriers that are not affected and those who have recovered and not been tested.
Statistics are not for the mathless among us.
Quoted from PanzerFreak:We are in the exponential growth period now.
Again, people use that term without actually understanding it. It is certainly NOT spreading Exponentially right now.
The numbers are nowhere near that kind of spreading.
Could they get there, sure. But we are nowhere near there at the moment.
Quoted from guitarded:Nope.
Only Governors that have aspirations of a higher, national office have made such severe calls.
So that’s their entire motivation for trying to protect tens of millions of people?
Quoted from okgrak:So that’s their entire motivation for trying to protect tens of millions of people?
Sole motivation, maybe not?
But, yes. Humans are selfish creatures and Politicians tend towards the higher ends of the spectrum.
If you think for a second that Gavin Newsome and Andrew Cuomo aren't positioning themselves for their Political Future, I've got a lot of stuff to sell you.
San Tan Valley, AZ
Right now the slope of the case curve is positive, and like really positive, due mostly to more testing and more reported cases because the testing is ramping up as well. untill that slope flatttens out, we are in exponential growth, no ifs ands or buts about that math.
Quoted from guitarded:Again, people use that term without actually understanding it. It is certainly NOT spreading Exponentially right now.
The numbers are nowhere near that kind of spreading.
Could they get there, sure. But we are nowhere near there at the moment.
That is worst case, so yea, I agree I don't think we've hit it yet, but most likely we don't see it due to lack of testing. We are way behind on it, it really all depends on when it hit the states. It is true that if say 1m people actually have it, that makes the death rate lower, but again, the problem is no one really knows what the real numbers are, they are looking at the possibly high numbers based on the information they have.
Quoted from guitarded:You have, though. H1N1 was more widespread and had a lot more caasualties (to date). It just did not garner the same Media Attention at the time.
And, people still get H1N1...just not to the same degree as when it appeared.
A lot of people here have lived through more than that. That one is just one of the most recent examples, but a lot of the older gen here lived through the Polio scare as well.
This too will pass.
Key difference
H1N1: Treatment available: antivirals (oseltamivir and zanamivir); most people recovered without complications
COVID-19: none; supportive care is provided, pain relievers and fever reducers can alleviate symptoms, and antibiotics can help treat secondary bacterial pneumonia and antivirals used with other viruses are being administered to help with recovery
For H1N1, there were antivirals available to help treat it, with Covid-19 we don't have any as of right now.
From the CDC:
April 15
First human infection with new influenza A H1N1 virus detected in California.
April 17
Second human infection with the new influenza A H1N1 virus detected in California about 130 miles away from first infection, with no known connection to previous patient.
April 26
The United States Government declared 2009 H1N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and CDC began releasing 25% of antiviral drugs needed to treat this new influenza virus from the federal stockpile.
So eleven days after H1N1 was discovered there was treatment available.
Quoted from RWH:That is true for now but as we go up in the number of infections that 2% will decrease.
I've been reading this statement for 5 minutes straight trying to understand the logic here.
Quoted from Rdoyle1978:I've been reading this statement for 5 minutes straight trying to understand the logic here.
They are saying there are an unknown number of unreported cases that are not factored into the 2% mortality figure. When you include those the mortality rate will go down.
(not saying I agree or disagree, just that I think that's what they were trying to say.)
Open 10 years...sorry 10 hours ago 
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/why-cant-i-stop-buying
(No judging in any way, just reporting)
Quoted from wolfemaaan:I’m in Cali and I’m not staying in. I’m going to get what I need done and then chill out with a beer and pinball. Should I get the Coronavirus, well, I’ll pick up some Coronas and a lime
With every post you Sound more and more irresponsible.
Think of other people and there families not just about YOU.
Quoted from frankmac:With every post you Sound more and more irresponsible.
Think of other people and there families not just about YOU.
wolfemaaan you are part of the problem.
Quoted from frankmac:Think of other people and there families not just about YOU.
The tens of thousands out of work now? Or are you thinking of some other kind of suffering?
Our society has completely changed in the last two weeks and many people are suffering for it right now and will continue to do so in the coming months.
If you're making the claim that the health benefits outweigh the other forms of suffering these changes are causing you need to back that up with data.
Quoted from Rdoyle1978:I've been reading this statement for 5 minutes straight trying to understand the logic here.
Simple...
Death rate is number of **known** deaths / number of **known** infections
The argument is number of **known** infections is artificially low (thus driving up the death %) because we do not have an accurate picture of actual number of infections. As testing improves, the variation between known infections and actual infections will decrease... leading to a more accurate mortality rate.
TLDR - death rate is not highly accurate because we don't know how many people get the virus
But what CAN be looked at is... of people hospitalized, how many recover or not. Or how many people need hospitalization. And those numbers are what are pushing experts to raise the concerns.
Quoted from YeOldPinPlayer:The tens of thousands out of work now? Or are you thinking of some other kind of suffering?
Our society has completely changed in the last two weeks and many people are suffering for it right now and will continue to do so in the coming months.
If you're making the claim that the health benefits outweigh the other forms of suffering these changes are causing you need to back that up with data.
Just be safe and think of others.
Oh ya, I believe I was responding to wolfemaaan
Quoted from guitarded:If you think for a second that Gavin Newsome and Andrew Cuomo aren't positioning themselves for their Political Future, I've got a lot of stuff to sell you.
From Pinball Heaven LTD UK
As things stand, the £/$ rate means LE pins are going to be £1200 more expensive and Pro games £600 - we have stock at the old prices for now but dont think we'll bother restocking for a while!!!
Hope USA sales are strong, can't see many export sales 
Hate to say it, I said 3 weeks ago that Stern would have supply/parts issues.
Stern (resized).jpgQuoted from zaphX:That is really bad to hear. It hasn't even been a month of shutdown and things already going Mad Max on us.
The fact that there was a crazy run on toilet papers before 50 people died in the states makes me really scared of what we're capable of here once the death toll mounts and millions are out of work.
During the past 18 Months used machines went up in 1000 dollar increments, not 250 or 500, a thousand. If a machine was
deemed a good value through discussions here it quickly went 2000 higher. Flippers added 1000 to 3000 to the price of machines
bought a day before, many of these sit, week after week on various Sales Sites.
Can anyone honestly say they would'nt like to see an end to this Trend?
Especially the speculators that may not even be fans of Pinball but see it as a quick buck?
Quoted from freeplay3:Michigan locations were shut down Monday at 3pm. I was driving around on Tuesday, to my at risk locations, emptying cash and leaving all coin doors and atm safes open. Last thing I need is someone destroying a juke box for a few bucks. If its open they will move on. A few of the bars seen what I was doing and also left all the registers open.
Smart!
Quoted from PanzerFreak:No but multiple doctors and scientists have already said that the number of cases / deaths will stop going up at some point, peak, and go down. The numbers cannot just keep going up forever, this will end.
Take a look at the deaths by week per 1000 people across several cities world wide during the Spanish Flu, a virus that killed 50 or more people from 1918-1919. The period of exponential growth lasted about 2 months. We are in the exponential growth period now. Cases will eventually peak, and then start going down until they level off. Once levels do go down and level off a big concern will be preventing a second wave which did occur during the Spanish Flu pandemic.
[quoted image]
Sorry, should have kept this in the other thread.
Those are measured in thousands. That's fucked up right there.
Quoted from guitarded:Again, people use that term without actually understanding it. It is certainly NOT spreading Exponentially right now.
The numbers are nowhere near that kind of spreading.
Could they get there, sure. But we are nowhere near there at the moment.
I see an opinion post a link 
Quoted from frankmac:With every post you Sound more and more irresponsible.
Think of other people and there families not just about YOU.
Lol irresponsible is not the word that came to mind
Quoted from zaphX:H1N1 mortality rate was 0.02%.
CoronaVirus is 2%.
https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html
And what is the percent of normal flu deaths this year in America?
Hell yeah it’s collapsed, I just traded some toilet paper for an Addams and a Twilight Zone.
You guy need more hobby’s.
Quoted from Slogan1111:And what is the percent of normal flu deaths this year in America?
You'll need numbers on both strains
Quoted from YeOldPinPlayer:The tens of thousands out of work now? Or are you thinking of some other kind of suffering?
Our society has completely changed in the last two weeks and many people are suffering for it right now and will continue to do so in the coming months.
If you're making the claim that the health benefits outweigh the other forms of suffering these changes are causing you need to back that up with data.
Italy had 627 deaths today and around 500 each of the past 3-4 days. The death rate there is tracking between 6-8%. Many are dying who may have otherwise been treatable if not for overrun hospitals and their healthcare system on the verge of collapse.
If California's governor is correct and 60% of that state's population gets this within the next 6-7 months, at least 250,000-500,000 will die in that state alone.
What data do you have that suggests the US and countries like Italy should just be carrying on business as usual?
Quoted from Utesichiban:Italy had 627 deaths today and around 500 each of the past 3-4 days. The death rate there is tracking between 6-8%. Many are dying who may have otherwise been treatable if not for overrun hospitals and their healthcare system on the verge of collapse.
If California's governor is correct and 60% of that state's population gets this within the next 6-7 months, at least 250,000-500,000 will die in that state alone.
What data do you have that suggests the US and countries like Italy should just be carrying on business as usual?
This. Italy is a 10-14 day preview of what's coming here.
Quoted from NC_Pin:So we are not eating out... at least not for a few weeks. Remember your Darwin, those who adapt to the new environment are the ones to survive. Those that continue on as they were are the ones that die off.
I'm about ready to kill for a fuggin pizza right now. I didn't realize how much I ate out until now. But there is just no chance I'm going out to buy prepared food someone else cooked, touched, and packaged. It's just not worth the risk right now.
Quoted from CrazyLevi:Not sane, nor logical I know. And I’m aware a serious luxury that I shouldn’t be bragging about.
Still, was fun to receive a game (curb side, we kept our distance!), move it around and set it up.
For about 45 minutes everything seemed almost normal! It was a nice break from reality.
Probably just got that normalcy in under the wire.
[quoted image][quoted image]
Hopefully there will be somebody over 75 still alive after all this blows over, then you might be ably to turn a tidy little profit.
Χαλκίδα
Well pinheads are pinheads. Financial crisis or not they will still continue to buy and perhaps this situation might also create opportunities for good deals. However I don't think that many people will spend the 10k that we have seen in recent games.
Quoted from DaveH:I'm about ready to kill for a fuggin pizza right now. I didn't realize how much I ate out until now. But there is just no chance I'm going out to buy prepared food someone else cooked, touched, and packaged. It's just not worth the risk right now.
As long as you cook it, it should be fine. Do you eat raw pizza?
Yeah I've been phasing back eating out a little. I just NEEDED it. Going to local places I know.
Still not much but as long as the restaurants are open I'll have to do it once or twice a week. Last night I had some thai food; steamed dumplings and beef pad cashew. It was glorious.
Tonight we are making some chicken stir fry and also some guac. The bodega downstairs got in a new shipment of frito-lay - fresh cool ranch reinforcements! They also got in some off-brand sanitizer so I bought a bottle. All set for the next few weeks.
Quoted from DaveH:I'm about ready to kill for a fuggin pizza right now. I didn't realize how much I ate out until now. But there is just no chance I'm going out to buy prepared food someone else cooked, touched, and packaged. It's just not worth the risk right now.
As a person who only cooks with his Amex, I am right there with you. It's a tough change but I think of the cash I am saving.
Well my brother picked up a funhouse today, sounds like if anything Pinball market might pickup as people want something to do while indoors. Maybe not too end HEPs or NIBs, but I have a feeling people are going to start discovering that sub $3K pin range as there is quite a bit to choose from
Quoted from Utesichiban:If California's governor is correct
I appreciate the concern, but our governor is a moron.
Makes Jerry Brown look like a saint. But he's probably just saying what his advisors are telling him to say.
Quoted from fireball2:I make 2+ loaves of bread a day. I'm set
[quoted image]
What the hell is your door made of, human flesh? It looks like the Necronomicon 
. It's cool though, I like it.
Quoted from fireball2:I make 2+ loaves of bread a day. I'm set
[quoted image]
Duuuude!
A San Luis Obispo O-DIN?!?!??
72E11B90-10A8-42A9-8864-7DA17E6E6304 (resized).jpeg
Does that mean I could possibly get some fresh n’ SLO tasty O-Din bread to go with my already tasty O-Din lasagna?
Drool, drool, drool, drool, drool, drool
So Delicious!
Quoted from IdahoRealtor:I appreciate the concern, but our governor is a moron.
I don't disagree. I've never thought much of Newsome or most California politicians for that matter.
However, unless you want to be Italy in 1-2 weeks (you may be anyway but will be for sure if this isn't done), it is necessary. You aren't alone either. New York and Illinois are locking down as well.
With Illinois locking down, that pretty much brings Stern line to a grinding halt. There will likely be a shortage of NIB pinball machines for the next few months whether people can afford to buy them or not.
Quoted from flynnibus:Simple...
Death rate is number of **known** deaths / number of **known** infections
The argument is number of **known** infections is artificially low (thus driving up the death %) because we do not have an accurate picture of actual number of infections. As testing improves, the variation between known infections and actual infections will decrease... leading to a more accurate mortality rate.
TLDR - death rate is not highly accurate because we don't know how many people get the virus
But what CAN be looked at is... of people hospitalized, how many recover or not. Or how many people need hospitalization. And those numbers are what are pushing experts to raise the concerns.
the problem with the "number is under-reported" is the time lag. People don't either recover or die the moment they learn the results of the test. It sounds like death actually occurs a few weeks after the first symptoms. So many of the 256 deaths in the USA are likely from infections that occurred in *February* - so at a 2% infection rate there may have been 10,000 people infected before march 1st. The math on this stuff starts to look very, very grim.
Quoted from Slogan1111:And what is the percent of normal flu deaths this year in America?
0.1%. In Italy Covid19 is tracking at 6-8%. This isn't the flu and would likely kill 1-2 million if 50% of the country gets it. Looking more like Spanish flu numbers right now.
Quoted from Utesichiban:0.1%. In Italy Covid19 is tracking at 6-8%. This isn't the flu and would likely kill 1-2 million if 50% of the country gets it. Looking more like Spanish flu numbers right now.
Spitting facts right there.
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