(Topic ID: 264212)

Is the pinball market about to collapse?

By 27dnast

1 year ago


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  • Latest reply 1 year ago by Daditude
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    12
    #451 1 year ago
    Quoted from mzhulk:

    Most people who own pinball machines have money, if you need to sell than you couldn't afford them in the first place.

    Patently a false notion. You obviously are not a "blue collar" type judging from your statement. I own pins but there are times that I need to focus my money elsewhere and when I need that I sell pins with the hope someday I'll get them back but, they are for entertainment and other things at times take precedence over them.

    #452 1 year ago

    I work at a YMCA camp and all of our groups are cancelling and I fear there will not be a summer camp this year which is about half of our business. I don't think I will be needed there much longer so I will probably lose my job, at least temporarily. Many will be in the same boat and the US is definitely going to be in a recession for at least a year so this will drive down pin prices but the pinball market will not collapse. Everything will get back to normal but it may take a year or more.

    As far as the virus goes, I do think about 100 million Americans will get it and at a 2% mortality rate, 2 million will die. I am a food service worker and I have been taking the virus very seriously but I see many people not taking this seriously enough. I tried to establish some serious protocols at work and I was told by my supervisor I was being overly concerned. I wound up caving on some of the protocols but had to stand my ground on others. I hope I am wrong about 2 million people dying but I have never seen anything escalate this quickly in my life and I think there is a reason for this.

    #453 1 year ago
    Quoted from TigerLaw:

    Well, the volume of newly listed games has really shot up over the last week but the asking price has been about what it would have been two months ago, at least it looks that way to me.

    This is what happened in 2008-2009. Asking prices didn't fall, games just kind of sat around.

    Of course this isn't 2009, is it? These situations seem incredibly dissimilar.

    12
    #454 1 year ago
    Quoted from RWH:

    Patently a false notion. You obviously are not a "blue collar" type judging from your statement. I own pins but there are times that I need to focus my money elsewhere and when I need that I sell pins with the hope someday I'll get them back but, they are for entertainment and other things at times take precedence over them.

    Right. You don't have to be rich to own a few pinball machines, or even a dozen. I think Pinball is a solidly middle-class hobby. And the middle-class has more anxiety and potential financial issues than they've had in over a decade.

    11
    #455 1 year ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    Right. You don't have to be rich to own a few pinball machines, or even a dozen. I think Pinball is a solidly middle-class hobby. And the middle-class has more anxiety and potential financial issues than they've had in over a decade.

    I'll be the first to admit I'm scared shitless. I worry myself to death every time I go out that I'll bring this stuff home to my wife. She's in the very early stages of emphysema (copd) and would not do well if that happened especially now with the added stress of forced retirement.

    #456 1 year ago

    - Seventy thousand more jobless claims were filed in the U.S. last week than the first week of March — a 33% increase

    -The entertainment industry has so far shed 120,000 "below-the-line" jobs, which represent 80% of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees.

    -The U.S. is projected to lose 4.6 million travel-related jobs this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

    -Marriott, the world's largest hotel chain, will begin furloughing tens of thousands of workers as it temporarily closes hotels and resorts among its 30 brands.
    Hotels, airlines, port operators and more are among companies that have begun layoffs.

    -A typical post-World War II recession has seen the U.S. unemployment rise by 2-2.5 percentage points, which today would translate into about 3.5 million lost jobs, economist David Wilcox said.

    But in other news, Pinball machines to keep their value....... Stay tuned

    #457 1 year ago
    Quoted from mzhulk:

    Most people who own pinball machines have money, if you need to sell than you couldn't afford them in the first place.

    Not true!

    #458 1 year ago
    Quoted from Don44:

    As far as the virus goes, I do think about 100 million Americans will get it and at a 2% mortality rate, 2 million will die.

    This just won't happen - out of 100 mil only a small percentage of those are an at risk population for complications
    and percentage death for that population is about 1%
    At risk population is about 16% of 100 mil so 1% of 16% which is 160,000

    those numbers are just a worse case rough estimation
    Not great but still not close to 2 million

    #459 1 year ago

    I think 2008 should have been a lesson in the false premise that is "if people own X, then people also have money." I guess it depends on one's definition of having money. The past boom years of easy credit was heroin for people who still had no business buying second homes or running up credit card debt to fund multiple discretionary purchases. The all-enticing HELOC and snake oil selling of variable arm loans made it too easy too "have money." Unfortunately, we too often fail to learn from our mistakes. If this chart isn't sad and scary enough (and is federal reserve based data from only a few years ago), what has the past two weeks done.........

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    20
    #460 1 year ago

    If you have 10+ (or even 5 - 10) years left to work I would not be cashing out your 401k, that's probably the worst possible thing you can do right now. Your 401k has already taken a big hit at this point and by taking an early withdrawal it will take a 10% penalty hit plus another 25% - 30% in taxes. The stock market will go back up. Yes, it may take 5 years to get back and surpass the recent record peak but when you have 10+ years to retire who cares! It's easy to make bad financial decisions in a panic.

    12
    #461 1 year ago
    Quoted from PanzerFreak:

    If you have 10+ (or even 5 - 10) years left to work I would not be cashing out your 401k, that's probably the worst possible thing you can do right now. Your 401k has already taken a big hit at this point and by taking an early withdrawal it will take a 10% penalty hit plus another 25% - 30% in taxes. The stock market will go back up. Yes, it may take 5 years to get back and surpass the recent record peak but when you have 10+ years to retire who cares!

    I'll never understand why people panic over their 401K if they're more than 5yrs from 68... Most people in the US retire at that age for social security reasons but if you're retiring earlier or later the same 5yr rule would apply. Under 5yrs? I'd seek the advice of a professional who can perhaps help you guide your money into less volatile assets to limit your short term losses or a combination of moves. Yeah my 401K is down 25% from just a month ago, it sucks, but I just stopped looking and everyone else should as well...

    Jeff

    #462 1 year ago
    Quoted from Don44:

    I work at a YMCA camp and all of our groups are cancelling and I fear there will not be a summer camp this year which is about half of our business. I don't think I will be needed there much longer so I will probably lose my job, at least temporarily. Many will be in the same boat and the US is definitely going to be in a recession for at least a year so this will drive down pin prices but the pinball market will not collapse. Everything will get back to normal but it may take a year or more.
    As far as the virus goes, I do think about 100 million Americans will get it and at a 2% mortality rate, 2 million will die. I am a food service worker and I have been taking the virus very seriously but I see many people not taking this seriously enough. I tried to establish some serious protocols at work and I was told by my supervisor I was being overly concerned. I wound up caving on some of the protocols but had to stand my ground on others. I hope I am wrong about 2 million people dying but I have never seen anything escalate this quickly in my life and I think there is a reason for this.

    I hope it passes as fast and gentle as possible. To be frank, there are probebly biochemists all over the world working Day and night for a vaccin. Lets hope they come thru.
    Stay safe people and there will hopefully be lots of work available when this is over.

    #463 1 year ago
    Quoted from Dr-pin:

    I hope it passes as fast and gentle as possible. To be frank, there are probebly biochemists all over the world working Day and night for a vaccin. Lets hope they come thru.
    Stay safe people and there will hopefully be lots of work available when this is over.

    Surprised that China hasn't come up with anything yet. They've had months.

    #464 1 year ago
    Quoted from sataneatscheese:

    I lost 26% in 2 weeks before I bailed (yesterday). That's, retirement and kid's college (got 10 more years before I need that one).

    Suggestion (if not done already): don't leave all this cash in a single bank - you never know what may happens to it.

    -2
    #465 1 year ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    Surprised that China hasn't come up with anything yet. They've had months.

    We've been through this for a while. Even if they've had months it's likely 1.5 years before a vaccine can be properly created, tested, and released. So even if they've been working night and day since late last year it's still over a year away. And no guarantee they'll want to share it for us, considering our latest campaign to distract from our own failures by rebranding the virus as China's fault.

    #466 1 year ago

    If you have 5 to 10 years to work, i would leave your 401k alone, actually up your contribution. Its like buying 2 for 1 right now more money when you are set to retire. 10 years from now the dow will be at least 38000 look what it was in 2008. If you only had 2 years from retiring and did not pull your money out of stocks well than that's your own fault.

    #467 1 year ago
    Quoted from Dr-pin:

    I hope it passes as fast and gentle as possible. To be frank, there are probebly biochemists all over the world working Day and night for a vaccin. Lets hope they come thru.
    Stay safe people and there will hopefully be lots of work available when this is over.

    They have multiple vaccines already in the pipeline and a few have started clinical trials. That isn't the issue. The issue is it takes time to determine the efficacy and particularly the safety of a vaccine.

    There have been times in the past where a vaccine has been rushed where it actually did more harm then good.

    I'm still hoping for a fasttrack but I think 6-8 months is best case and that would entail some long term risk.

    #468 1 year ago
    Quoted from RWH:

    I'll be the first to admit I'm scared shitless. I worry myself to death every time I go out that I'll bring this stuff home to my wife. She's in the very early stages of emphysema (copd) and would not do well if that happened especially now with the added stress of forced retirement.

    I upvoted you but I think we may need a new option besides upvotes / downvotes. Like "I feel for you / My support / My thoughts / Prayers / or whatever you feel appropriate". A kind of "empathy" button? Guess we will all need some.

    #469 1 year ago
    Quoted from Utesichiban:

    They have multiple vaccines already in the pipeline and a few have started clinical trials. That isn't the issue. The issue is it takes time to determine the efficacy and particularly the safety of a vaccine.
    There have been times in the past where a vaccine has been rushed where it actually did more harm then good.
    I'm still hoping for a fasttrack but I think 6-8 months is best case and that would entail some long term risk.

    Vaccine will take more time than approved treatments. But do not expect miracle cures though. Viruses are nasty. The influenza virus has been around for centuries and we don't have a super efficient drug against it. Tamiflu helps, but a lot of people still die.

    #470 1 year ago
    Quoted from jlm33:

    I upvoted you but I think we may need a new option besides upvotes / downvotes. Like "I feel for you / My support / My thoughts / Prayers / or whatever you feel appropriate". A kind of "empathy" button? Guess we will all need some.

    Nice sentiments.

    #471 1 year ago
    Quoted from jlm33:

    I upvoted you but I think we may need a new option besides upvotes / downvotes. Like "I feel for you / My support / My thoughts / Prayers / or whatever you feel appropriate". A kind of "empathy" button? Guess we will all need some.

    It's time to get rid of the downvotes and add an empathy button!

    This is no time for downvoting.

    Pinside must unite against this unseen enemy! We will defeat it, as we once drove the hun back to his castle, and pummled the axis of evil!

    #472 1 year ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    We will defeat it, as we once drove the hun back to his castle, and defeated the axis of evil!

    "We must Build an Atomic Blaster"
    Thinking of Attack from Mars, with Italy, France, US, UK and Germany targeted, we have a first wave of candidate nations to save (assuming China is now mostly safe - relative terms! - and Japan / South Korea probably on the right track (?)

    -1
    #473 1 year ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    We've been through this for a while. Even if they've had months it's likely 1.5 years before a vaccine can be properly created, tested, and released. So even if they've been working night and day since late last year it's still over a year away. And no guarantee they'll want to share it for us, considering our latest campaign to distract from our own failures by rebranding the virus as China's fault.

    Not so sure they they would have shared it prior to Trump hurting their feelings. Add to it that we now are going to try and limit our dependence on China for pharmaceuticals, such a bad move.

    -1
    #474 1 year ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    Not so sure they they would have shared it prior to Trump hurting their feelings. Add to it that we now are going to try and limit our dependence on China for pharmaceuticals, such a bad move.

    Yes, isolating yourself (figuratively) and pointlessly insulting the rest of the world is a "bad move" in an international health crisis. You are learning!

    11
    #475 1 year ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    Surprised that China hasn't come up with anything yet. They've had months.

    They don't invent things. They steal them.

    #476 1 year ago
    Quoted from guitarded:

    They don't invent things. They steal them.

    You've obviously never played skee-ball.

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    #477 1 year ago
    Quoted from guitarded:

    They don't invent things. They steal them.

    Not any longer; who is ahead of the game with 5G and they could not steal that?

    #478 1 year ago

    Integration and Invention are not the same.

    #479 1 year ago
    Quoted from NimblePin:

    If you work, or can continue to work from home to begin with, it’s technically just another day at the office.
    Why change spending habits if the above holds true for the foreseeable future and pinball is already factored into the annual budget?

    Because even though I'm working from home, I don't know what the future holds. Yes, pinball is factored into my annual budget already, but that is because I enjoy it so much. However I don't know where this whole thing ends. What if we go into a depression and I don't have money coming in? If I drop 5500 bucks on a game right now, is that enough money to feed a family of 6 for a year? What if a close friend loses their job and needs help for a bit? I'd feel like an asshole if I was saying no, but you can come over and play my new game! In unsure times people hold on to their resources a lot tighter.

    #480 1 year ago

    Being stuck in my house MORE than normal only means that I have more time to play pinball, order parts and work on my machines.
    The only negative affect to my selfish little world is that shipments from FLIPPP are being delayed.

    Marco, Arcadeshop and others are getting more business from me than anytime previous.

    #481 1 year ago
    Quoted from guitarded:

    They don't invent things. They steal them.

    That's a staggeringly ignorant thing to say... Yikes...

    Jeff

    #482 1 year ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    Surprised that China hasn't come up with anything yet. They've had months.

    They have come up with something. It is called Covid19 and they shared it to the world.

    If you're expecting any innovation in the biotech/pharmaceutical sector from China on this, you'll be waiting a long time. Their biopharmaceutical sector is still in its infancy.

    The clinical trials they've been conducting are with US/European biopharma products like remdesvir (Gilead) and anti-viral drugs for HIV, etc made by Abbvie and others.

    #483 1 year ago
    Quoted from jeffro01:

    That's a staggeringly ignorant thing to say... Yikes...
    Jeff

    It might be an over generalization, but it isn't wrong, especially on the tech side. The amount of counterfeit tech (or everything really) coming out of china is staggering.

    #484 1 year ago
    Quoted from jeffro01:

    hat's a staggeringly ignorant thing to say... Yikes...

    Single biggest perpetrators of technological theft in the world.

    #485 1 year ago
    Quoted from guitarded:

    Single biggest perpetrators of technological theft in the world.

    That's not what you said initially, but whatever. China and its people have invented a number of things this world takes for granted on a daily basis but again, whatever. I'm not saying patent theft isn't real and that China doesn't engage in it, all I'm saying here is broad generalizations are the last thing we need right now and it just makes people look the opposite of smart.

    Jeff

    #486 1 year ago

    So the government is going to pay me to sit home and do nothing? Where do I sign up!

    #487 1 year ago
    Quoted from jeffro01:

    China and its people have invented a number of things this world takes for granted on a daily basis

    They have made Great Leaps forward.

    #488 1 year ago
    Quoted from jlm33:

    Vaccine will take more time than approved treatments. But do not expect miracle cures though. Viruses are nasty. The influenza virus has been around for centuries and we don't have a super efficient drug against it. Tamiflu helps, but a lot of people still die.

    Didn’t Japanese release study of effective drug? Cuts positive tests from +14 days to 4. Already on market. Probably was suppressed by liberal media- joke. Search Japanese flu drug- don’t click the first link, that’s another virus.

    I guess this crisis is illustrating the ant- grasshopper Aesop fable. If winter comes, do you have resources to survive? If not, don’t buy a pinball. If your best retirement idea is pinball, think harder. The “I just fix up and keep my profits in pins” theory still means you are investing in pins. Just like tulips.

    #489 1 year ago
    Quoted from jlm33:

    Vaccine will take more time than approved treatments. But do not expect miracle cures though. Viruses are nasty. The influenza virus has been around for centuries and we don't have a super efficient drug against it. Tamiflu helps, but a lot of people still die.

    One precedent where a vaccine was rushed before they were 100% sure it was safe was polio... and fortunately it worked and saved thousands of lives globally.

    In the case of the H1N1 swine flu vaccine in 1976, there were people who experienced complications like Guillain-Barre which is is part of the precedent on why it can be dangerous to rush vaccines.

    It will be interesting in this case. Even though they are saying 12-18 months, if this continue to worsens and is still a major issue 6-8 months from now, I think the vaccine approval could get moved up.

    #490 1 year ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    considering our latest campaign to distract from our own failures by rebranding the virus as China's fault.

    ...coming in with the Communist Chinese propaganda for the win!

    #491 1 year ago
    Quoted from SpotsGotcha:

    Being stuck in my house MORE than normal only means that I have more time to play pinball, order parts and work on my machines.
    The only negative affect to my selfish little world is that shipments from FLIPPP are being delayed.
    Marco, Arcadeshop and others are getting more business from me than anytime previous.

    Actually this might be a weird by-product of everything that's happening...people may not want to spend $$$$ to get additional machines, but may instead invest $ for parts, upgrades, repairs.

    I made exactly that decision and put a few hundred in parts orders for my dr who, which will be my "quarantine project" for me and my son/daughter for the next few weeks...and i put my new purchase plans on hold for a bit. So the parts suppliers...comet, marco, PBL, etc...may end up not getting hit too hard...I hope.

    #493 1 year ago
    Quoted from DaveH:

    What if we go into a depression and I don't have money coming in? If I drop 5500 bucks on a game right now, is that enough money to feed a family of 6 for a year? What if a close friend loses their job and needs help for a bit?

    All valid concerns Dave!
    Too many “What if’s“ and no solid footing in sight.
    It’s quite overwhelming to witness first hand for sure.

    Personally, if I had just lost my job today, I’d be doing the GrubHub thing in a flash.
    Those folks are hustling like Costco employees right now but, with much lower chance of contamination due to the lack of actual physical interaction with customers.

    As for the pin funds, my only purchase has already been set aside in R&M.
    I consider that money already spent so, I don’t lose sleep over it.
    Now, obviously if the world goes completely upside down then sure, material stuff would probably have to go, but I’d like to think I’m still Nimble enough to find other avenues first to keep this current home life cruising right along.

    COVID-19 is still better (to me,) than an Earth ending Asteroid, HUUUGE Tsunami, or any number of other movie themed catastrophes that could easily take us puny humans out at any given time.

    We’ll see this through.
    Fingers crossed smarter than we were before; hopefully with more empathy towards our fellow peeps that are indeed falling on hard times.

    If anything,
    The positive takeaways from this are, people are FINALLY caring more about personal hygiene/surface germs in general, and two, Earth is having itself a nice break from all the normal hustle and bustle we humans put it through on a daily basis.

    As long as the WiFi holds up, we should be just fine.
    Once that goes, *insert god of choice* help us all!

    #494 1 year ago
    Quoted from Utesichiban:

    One precedent where a vaccine was rushed before they were 100% sure it was safe was polio... and fortunately it worked and saved thousands of lives globally.

    In the USA. The first year they weren't successful in killing the virus, and in fact infected some kids with polio.

    My Mother fought my Father tooth and nail on the vaccine the first year. She finally told him that he should get it first and if he was okay then us kids would get it. That was the end of it. Us kids got it the next year.

    LTG : )

    -22
    #495 1 year ago

    I used to not be a fan of Gen Z’rs , but this video made me a fan. They are right spot on about this. This is an old people’s problem (and I’m pretty much in that category). The only cure right now is getting the virus, and the kids are going to live through it. The rest of the world can suck it, it’s the bed these “old people” built, not these young people.

    I hope they stay out and party, this Flu+ outbreak is nothing more than that and the leaders of the world have actually made it dangerous by their inability to properly handle it

    #496 1 year ago
    Quoted from CrazyLevi:

    as we once drove the hun back to his castle

    Downvoted due to huns not knowing how to drive. Which makes as much sense as anything these days...

    -15
    #497 1 year ago
    Quoted from Gribbs:

    ...coming in with the Communist Chinese propaganda for the win!

    If China were in charge here, we'd be in about 10X better shape, and even the propaganda would make more sense.

    #498 1 year ago
    Quoted from wolfemaaan:

    I used to not be a fan of Gen Z’rs , but this video made me a fan. They are right spot on about this. This is an old people’s problem (and I’m pretty much in that category). The only cure right now is getting the virus, and the kids are going to live through it. The rest of the world can suck it, it’s the bed these “old people” built, not these young people.
    I hope they stay out and party, this Flu+ outbreak is nothing more than that and the leaders of the world have actually made it dangerous by their inability to properly handle it

    If I were their parents, I'd be sure to have their clothes on the steps when they got back. You aren't scared eh? Go live life, on your own. You're a man now.

    -2
    #499 1 year ago

    I am a big fan of Generation Z. They don't have a stick up their ass.

    #500 1 year ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    If I were their parents, I'd be sure to have their clothes on the steps when they got back. You aren't scared eh? Go live life, on your own. You're a man now.

    I hope this isn't true but it doesn't surprise me. Too many of these kids could care less about anyone but themselves and self gratification.

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