There's a lot of new money and new dummies coming into this hobby every day! They certainly don't want to miss out on any of this fun.

I guess so, but this old dummy is about to find a whole lot of "fun" elsewhere for $8k.

Pinball sales history and the current market speaks a different answer.
We are not there yet again on this latest round, but we will get there just like during the reimport era.
2-5 years or so, but they really go "dormant" per say but never "die".
It goes in phased periods, where it becomes more noticeable such as now during the latest revival.

The circumstances require NIB prices from the manufacturer to peak out too high that new buyers/operators balk.
That means operators just say "nope, I am just going to keep what I own based on costs to profits".
Owners and collectors just say "nope, the price is too high, and I will spend my money elsewhere", or get out of the hobby entirely by selling out when the market is high.
Secondary market follows suit when availability drops of used machines of the same titles.
No new game buyers (operators or home use) means no secondary market for NIB game titles.
Prices deflate, and process starts over.
Meanwhile, older titles that are popular hold their ground, but availability continues to decrease as years move on, thereby maintaining value.
It has happened this way for years with the exception of some abnormal market circumstance titles.
That is why you are always hear, "pinball is dead" every 15-20 years.
I guarantee I will hear it again within 10 years.

The primary reason is pinball is a toy, not a life necessity.

"Pinball Collectability Lesson".

We are in different times old timer.

As much as we all pump it, pinball will die a slow death as our generation dies off.

Young kids don't give a shit, never will.

but the ones that do will have a hell of a collection!

That is how I started out.
I "gave a $!@#", and I was certainly young once upon a time.
Most people think I am much older than I really am, but that is just the nature of when I started.
Many of the largest collectors did the same thing, teenage years for most.
I was precluded predominantly due to my first career choice, it was just not feasible.
Thereby, some machine just had to be sold.

The hobby has risen and fallen since the 1950s.
You can almost set a clock to the sequence.
Impacts due to technology, society changes, economy, and even war.
The primary disadvantage for new owners/collectors is if they want a title from the 80s, 90s, and early 00s, they will continue to get harder to find in superb condition.
Personally, I regret selling some games like my Genie, but that does not want me want to run out and spend $3k on beat up one.

There is also a change of mentality that started to occur in the early 00s in this hobby with "gotta have it now" regarding instant gratification.
Any title past 2005, is not really difficult unless you want a "rare" LE model or some type of low production quirky machine (ie back to the thread center mass)
If you are patient, you can find ANYTHING, make network contacts by staying in the hobby when times are lean.

Know where else intent does not matter? Murder victims (and their families) don't care if it was premeditated or spurred in the heat of a moment.

Pinball buyers don't care if you're selling because you planned to all along or are responding to some other situation.

The comparison might seem extreme, but the point is: Intent is irrelevant when there can only be one outcome. The difference is, nobody gets hurt in pinball and nobody forces a buyer to indulge a set price.

So arguing the "intent" to sell now or later at whatever price is just pointless. The price you set at the time you sell relative to the market, opens you up for judgement by the community. Want to give someone a deal? Great! Want to try and profit? Nothing wrong with that, we'd all like to occasionally. But don't get all defensive if your deal clearly puts you on one side of the fence versus the other.

Hmm... returning to the comparison, maybe there needs to be a defined difference between "Premeditated Scalping" versus "Involuntary Capitalizing"...?

In a word, "meh."

I own five machines today. I owned five before, sold one, owned four for a long time, just bought a fifth.

I'll buy more, too, and have the room for them. But..... only at a price I'm willing to pay. Of course the other side of that is that the seller has to be willing to sell, and at the ridiculously inflated prices I've seen of late, that's going to be a problem.

Or is it?

Not really. If someone is willing to fork up 2, 3, 4x or more what I think a machine is worth, more power to them! It's their money, and that's their call. I won't pay that, but that's because I don't see the value they do. There is no "right" and "wrong" just as there's not for a house, a car, a boat.... or a pinball.

There is only an offer and an acceptance, or not as the case may be.

I have a wad of cash for machines I want to own -- a nice list in fact. But I also have a price associated with each in what I consider to be 'acceptable' condition, and that's 100% working and a certain level of cosmetics. For everything that the machine is not on that list there's a price adjustment -- downward -- because my time is worth something and parts cost money to either buy or fabricate.

This means I pass on a lot of "offers", but that's because IMHO the sellers are insane. Of course that's my opinion, and it's only validated (or not) by others in the market who either agree with me, are willing to pay less... or will meet the ask.

Does this concern me? Not really. It means I have a smaller collection than I'd like, but I've been doing this for close to 20 years, and I frankly don't care about the bubbles. I'll let someone else lay out the cash for NIB, LEs, resales or whatever. When the time comes and they need money, and have a machine they need to dispose of, I've got a wad of cash -- but only a certain amount, and no more.

That's what makes a market.

Just for interest.

"Rainy day" collector example.
3X MET LEs "ducks in a row".
Still has 2X MET LEs NIB in storage (or at least he did).
Sequential order #247, #248, #249 (one is off screen)

Scalper? Flipper? Price Speculator? Hoarder? Investor?

Who knows right?
Not really.
The true reality is it all started with TAF Gold (more seriously), but has occurred since the 1980s.
I remember several people who bought two TAF Gold based on market speculation, just like owners did with BBB (very few based on skepticism of Gene Cunningham) and several other "hot" titles.
Some people just like to keep pinball machines in their boxes for years and make their own "time travel warehouse" and periodically look at them like the Governor and his zombie fish tank from the TWD.

Who is too judge?
Does it really matter for an individual?
It really should not.
This is not the standard norm, at least not yet.

The only difference now is people are willing to part with their money before they know what they are getting, on a game they have never played, willing to wait 2-3 years, watching significant changes in the market, complain the whole time, potentially lose a small or large deposit to a distributor who closes while they were waiting, to reserve a "slot" that was not a possibility in the past.
This is a recent "invention" partially generated out of the power of the internet.
Is this really an improvement?
Pinball price speculation gets people burned in the long run, if they don't stick around.
They might get lucky on a few titles, but eventually they end up with a dog that they sell for a loss.
They are no different than the "fly by night" distributors that end of shutting down during a dry period.
That actually is a concern, because it creates a different type of artificial inflation, which generally runs people out of the hobby, quicker.

Don't worry, be happy, and try not to be envious of first world problems.
As I always say, "It's only pinball, a toy meant to be enjoyed, not an investment."
If you want to invest properly use the stock market or buy real gold.

Be patient, GB for example is going to be a lot easier to find than a true proper documented, NIB purchased, batteries never removed to show the number of plays and hot swapped yearly, using a remote battery holder or NVRAM, waxed monthly, pinball fabric covered, only turned on to play, Home Use Only, "Top 10" game, 20+ years later.
Those are tough, but they exist as well, if a person passes into the realm of "hard core collector".

3X_MET_LEs_(resized).jpg

Collection of 24 top games, down to 5 within the last couple of years.

Bye bye, time to go.

Kids that I know, don't care.(including my own)

Don't get caught holding the bag.

Next!

Storer

So if you dont care about intent...

Do you think their is a difference in someone grabbing a game and selling it for profit later vs the quick flip?

intent matters to me and matters to many people.

If you remove intent completely, do you think same of the guy that buys NIB games and resells them before they even deliver compared to the guy that bought a game 10 years ago and sells it for current market. Just curious if you see any difference in character between these examples.

actually the entire planet "is being taken over" by scalpers

I think "many" is a very optimistic term here

Why are you so worried about what other people do? Why are you obsessed about getting in people's heads and trying to be morality police? Flippers perform a service. They help guarantee Stern sells out of LEs quickly, providing an immediate guaranteed income for them and their distributors on each new release. They make games available to people who missed the initial sale or otherwise couldn't get one at launch. They take risks that the game could be a dud and they wind up taking a loss. They have to build relationships with distributors and make multiple buys over time to get a chance at those coveted LEs. In most cases, they have to get the game, warehouse it and then ship or sell it on, all of which requires actual physical work.

You really should just drop this whole morality crusade, especially considering your AMH sale. I mean hell, you're basically loading teekee's 'hypocrite' gun and handing it to him. You did legwork, you got a desirable title there and there's no reason you shouldn't be able to sell it for what the market will bear. But, that goes for any item at any time from anyone. Don't like it? Build a distro relationship, commit early, buy your LE at launch and avoid the whole process, simple as that.

Your breakfast this morning, the gas you burned in the car you drove to work, the device on which you are reading this post....every product in the world is purchased by someone with the intent to flip it. Or scalp it, whichever you prefer. It's called "capitalism". Sometimes flipping works out, sometimes it doesn't; that's called risk. If there were no pinball buyers with more money than patience, there would be no pinball flippers.

The flipper/scalper isn't a world-class businessman or rocket scientist, having invented super secret magic sauce. If they were, they wouldn't be screwing around trying to make what amounts to vacation money; they'd be running Google or IBM.

He's no smarter than you. But he works harder and smarter than you.

Flippers actually help a marketplace by making products available to a buyer that would otherwise have no opportunity to purchase a product, at any price. For a real world practical example, down here in sunny Florida, we have hurricanes. When one hits, power goes out for days, weeks, or more. So generators are a hot commodity, pun intended. The stores here sell out of them a week BEFORE the storm hits. So scalpers used to take their own money, fly up to Georgia, rent a truck, and hit every Home Depot and Lowes, buying a truck full of generators on their way back to Florida. They'd jack the price, hoping to make a good buck. Then the ever-so-helpful bumbling government decided that scalpers suck, just like many of you. So they passed a law against it. What happened? They stopped that scalping of generators. And in stopping that scalper, they also took the opportunity away from everyone down here to buy one. Good work, right?

if you have not realized by now I dont care what most people think or do. I was aksing Rob as I was curious on his opinion/view.

This is a discussion forum and hence the discussion.

I am of the camp that when you buy just to flip then you are an asshole.
When you buy and then may end up selling later then you are just a person.

The real world is full of capitalism and all sorts of examples of trying to take advantage of others. This is a hobby with what I have found to be a COMMUNITY. Part of being in the real community is that you dont always put profit first or treat it like the real world. I have found in this hobby more than others, there are in fact lots of people ONLY in it for the business. There are also the ones that tend to have a tough time making friends and then tend to start treating it like everything is all about them with no effort to put in to the community aspect (helping to pass along a deal, keep an eye out for a game you want, come over to help move a game, invite you into their house, etc...) As far as "worried" with what others do, it is more so that I am curious where people fall on the community spectrum.

I know that I tend to ensure I dont help out those that are in the outskirts of the community and only trying to make a buck off the rest of us. On the flip side, I have knocked off a coulpe hundred for a good person that actually values the community aspect or gives back in some way (things like transporting games for cheap, passing along good deals, putting people in touch that are good people to help out a sale/purchase >> things friends do for each other as part of a community).

Everyone I know will give better deals to friends, and even friends of friends.. that's just normal behavior in any hobby. However, there's tens of thousands of people in the pinball "community." Literally, 25K+ registered on IFPA alone. Outside of your friends and groups, why do you even care what tens of thousands of random people do? Especially when your rules regarding intent get to be silly? I mean, at what point of possession does "intent" flip from play to profit? How much gouging is acceptable, if any? Do you have a whitepaper that goes over your reselling standards in detail?

I'm sure not many here are going to argue about your logic concerning flippers but what they're arguing is that you've lost the moral high ground to say anything about it.

they can be wrong all they want.

Happy Thursday everyone! There are so many new threads on Pinside.

Go check some of them out because this one is now closed.

Marcus