I replaced the coil for the auto launcher with the one recommended by NeilMcRae and PinMonk , but am still having the ball brick into the post at the skillshot about half the time. I have the power set to 205, but also tried 225, with the same results.

Can someone that has their auto launch dialed in, post a top down pic of the launch kicker arm to see how the ends of it are resting against a ball in the shooter lane?

Here are two slomo videos.

Also noticed the end of the guide is a bit hammered and it might be throwing the ball trajectory off sometimes.

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Thank you guys. I will adjust and report back. For clarification, by downwards do you mean loosen the screw and push the guide in a bit and then re-tighten. Or bend in the the top of the guide a bit.

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OK, thanks again guys, I think I’m good to go. I polished the end of the ball guide on my grinder to get it smoother. I adjust the guide at the end as suggested, too. Now it makes it around the loop 9 out of 10 times.

There is a screw holding the top part of the guide to the playfield, via a tab. You have to remove the gate and plastic to get to it. Then loosen it up and adjust the guide, re-tighten.

It's right on the other side of the guide where I have the arrow in this pic.

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This is what you need...

https://sternpinball.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Stern-ShakerMotorAdvisory.pdf

It came along with my shaker motor kit and I haven't had any issues with mysterious tilts.