I noticed you listed today's CV's ranging from 7k -10k. You neglected to mention the 10k was a prototype.
And yesterday (May 20th), there was a CV listed for 4500 (first call gets priority).

Would you say the 4500 for sale post was reasonable, or are you going to whine because it wasn't offered to you for 3k?

That's near what you just paid for a LOTR, is it not? There's fair prices for A titles out there gorilla my friend.

Everyone throws this "low production run" statement out there as if it's meaningful... ipdb tells me 90% of pinball machines had production runs under 4000. By that measure, 4000 is actually a high production run.

4000 is a relatively low run for a popular game from the 90s where many went on route and have since died. Compare that to games from the 2000s where many more went in homes and are still alive.

I think price of these games is directly reflected.

Take similarly popular games with different production runs and look at current prices:

MM / ~4400 made (3500 alive?) / current cost 10000-15000?
MB/ ~3400 made (2800 alive)/ current cost 9000-12000?
AFM/ ~3800 made (3000 alive?) / current cost 7000-9000?
TZ/ ~15000 made (12000 alive?)/ current cost 5000-6000?
TAF/ ~22000 made (15000 alive?)/ current cost 4000-5000?

Considering that out of the original 4k of any title with that production number, not all of them survived(figure 10% loss).Now you're down to 3600 left. If you figure there are 400k people globally collecting pins (total guess) and 10% of them are interested in the example title, that leaves 40k people on the "I want it list". Of course, probably only 10% of those people can/would buy the example pin. Now you're down to only 4k people in the hunt for this pin, but there is only 3600 left. If you take that example, you're looking at quite a deficit in supply, which would make a 4k production run rather rare (IMHO). Not to mention there isn't 3600 for sale, that just happens to be how many are left. This is total speculation on my part, but I would bet on a global scale this is what's happening currently in the hobby. Basically I think 4k wasn't that low before, but with a growing hobby it is becoming rare.

CV for 7k + is completly ridiculous, MM, BBB, and game a like going trough the roof.
i don't think there is more demand (enough) then 1 year ago...
some people look at the over prices from e-pay and started to do the same thing everywhere else.
if everybody's going crazy over a title (because they have one or will buy one).. we have a new trent.
let's say everybody's going crazy over raven or baywatch... what will be the next pin to go up?

with all the new pin makers coming with new titles price will go down again...

It does not help they did this with many previous games and Williams did not catch on till MM. CV WAS A GIANT TURD ON ROUTE. Game was total suck fest until Cameron did the Home roms.

Like it or not most CV where sold on closeout at 1700-2000 pending on who you went threw.

Glad i bought and sold my MM 5 years ago for under 5k

This is all part of the reason i got in on BHZA. If im going to drop 10k on a pin I would rather it be a "NIB as special as it can be limited edition" pin that many people will only see in pictures. Droping 10k+ on a 20 year old pin is to rich for my blood. I like new technology, I like new cars, homes, computers, ipads, tv's ect. I have played MM and love it. Its a great pin. I just would never spend that much wood on it when I can get a pin almost as good for less then half the price. Or somthing that is brand new for a bit less. If i had a MM i would be selling at this point bc no 20 year old pin is worth that money. I would rather 3 pins that are almost just as good in its place.

Edit: The 3 i would get in its place would be TOTAN, TOM, TFLE

Still 2/3 of the 90's games were under 4k runs. Those examples you list are good, but there's such a steep pricing dropoff when considering the rest of the well liked, low production run (3k or less) 90's games like NGG, GNR, POTO, WHO dunnit, 1812, BF, Congo, JY, CP, SG.

As a newbie who wants to get into this hobby I'm having a hard time finding anything in a decent price range (2k or less for a fun machine in good condition) in my area. I haven't been around long enough to say, but maybe the price of all pins are going up?

A lot depends on what your definition of a "fun machine" is. 95% of all EMs ever made can be had for under $1k and many are great fun. Most early SS machines can be had for under $1k, and almost all of the rest of them can be had under $2k. Lots of Sys11 era games, which are almost all wonderful machines, can be had for under $2k...many under $1k. Almost all Gottlieb, Data East, and Sega games can be found under $2k. Many great B/W DMDs such as DM, JD, JM, NF, etc can be found under $2k. People tend to get a narrow focus as to what makes a fun game when in reality there is an endless array of great games out there from all different manufacturers and eras. I think lots of people also get a bit hung up on condition, thinking only a "perfect" game can be in their collection. For me, a little wear adds character...especially in the older games. I like a game to show where it's been and how well it's been loved. Nothing wrong with that. I don't want a game so nice that I'm afraid to play it or let others bang around on it a bit.

If your definition of "fun" is what is on someones cookie cutter "a-list", or if your idea of good condition is mint/CQ/museum quality only...then yea...you are screwed. But if not, there is lots out there to make you happy if you keep your eyes open.

Have to agree. For pure fun at 2k I love my Getaway!!

Not any more, not only do they not come up hardly at all anymore, they are moving above the $2k mark.

All of those games (except JD) as well as many others were available at a local show just 2 months ago for under $2k. I personally paid $1200 for a DM at the show and have seen numerous examples since in that price range. Also bought a JP there for under $2k and would have bought a WCS for significantly less if I hadn't missed the guy. These deals and many others were all just at one show so not exactly hidden deals from unknowing sellers.

I'm not arguing that pin prices haven't been going up, but there are plenty of good bang for the buck machines out there yet in that price range. For how much longer though...who knows?!

I'll take two DM's for that price rigth now if I could find them

I've been trying forever to buy back the one I sold for just under $2k.

Here you go...$1350, so close. With only a minute of looking in the usual spots...
http://forums.arcade-museum.com/showthread.php?t=230597

(ah crap...just noticed it sold already...sorry)

Also a few on Mr Pinball. One asking $1300, one $2k OBO, so there's two more under $2k without looking too hard. They are out there!

Hey Jedi !

I dunno man, it's starting to get a lil' scary. TFTC is getting precariously close to the 2k range - every one of them I've seen is bordering the 2k mark. As far as the B/W games you mentioned - you know what saddens me...? Those 4 you mentioned seem to be all that's left of the B/W games for under 2k. Like - lately - I feel like I've memorized those four titles, and I almost can't see/find any other titles of B/W for under 2k. BSD WAS one of those until everyone seemed to get a universal chubby for it - now it's starting to flirt with 2k. BSD to me at absolutely best in 95% perfect condition is worth $1800, but lately people are trying to get over $2k for routed beaters and people with all the dollars have little "sense"....

And a Getaway for $2k??????? Man, I wouldn't go over $1600 for one, and I've passed on 3 of them already. Of course, I'll bet it'd be different if I was at a pinball show/convention/tournament, and I saw one for $1700. I'll guarantee I'd let up and take it to my truck

I'm starting to think I'm becoming part of the price police....

Don't get me wrong...I hear you and I'm seeing it too. I'm just saying as of now, deals are still to be had, though there is some luck needed for certain titles. I haven't seen a BSD or a HS2 for sale around here in quite a while, so no clue there. As for the DE games, it does seem like people are finally getting over the name brand stigma a bit and their best titles are creeping up. JP, TFTC, Tommy, and of course GnR are all getting up there. I hope that we don't see prices overall get too much higher in the near future, but I'm not holding my breath! I'm going to have to switch to all EM soon! (not that that's a bad thing)

2k getaway is a little steep. Picked up a DH for $1100 recently. Docotr Who on CL here for $1350.
Saw a LW3 for $975 about a monthish ago.

Is it fair to say that prices in MI are a bit lower than most other parts of the country? I'm generalizing, but it has seemed that way to me. Any insight, TheLaw?

No, I'm not terribly picky about condition as long as it plays (since I'm new I'd rather not have to fix a machine before I can play it yet). Scratches and dents don't bother me since this is probably going to live in the garage. I'm ok with EM or SS, and by fun I mean a pin that does not get boring after a couple dozen games because of shallow gameplay. Machines are scarce in my area and it seems that many sellers are expecting a lot for their pin. Tried to visit a dealer and his prices were sky high, so that is off the search list.

Bought within the last year:

JD for $1300
JM for $700
HS2 for $1150
TFTC for $1280
NBAFB for $1400
I500 for $1500
T2 for $1400

Most of these needed a hundred or two in parts to get them playing decently, but to say EVERYTHING is going over $2k is a bit far-fetched.

Something can't be considered a "low production number" at X if the average run for every title in that medium is X or under. It becomes, *drumroll*, the average.

If we want to compare in the grand scheme of things, yeah, 4K is a low production number compared to a music album or a movie DVD's production run. In pinball, it's average. We're dealing in pinball exclusively here, and in pinball 4K is not low production (from the numbers I've seen, at least).

If there were hard numbers that out of 4k, 3500 of them were ruined, then you can start busting out "rare"...but to claim "low production" is still kind of ridiculous.

This is like the debate over NOS and people finding justification to use that term for obviously non-NOS parts.

I couldn't help but comment. Just my $0.02...

Part of the reason prices are rising is the decrease in the availability of 'routed' games. Now most games are coming from a collector and are at least clean and working. I don't think it will be too long before you see the term 'routed beater' disappear altogether. At the very least, I know that the handful of times I've gained access to an operators warehouse, we took all the most desirable titles before considering the C listers.

Also, regarding newer games decreasing the value of older games, I am not so sure that is going to happen anytime soon. People keep referring to the drop of prices on EM and SS games when the DMD games came out. This wasn't exclusively linked to the addition of a DMD. They also phased in ramps, modes, bigger multiballs, wizard objectives, diamond plating, licensed themes and a whole hell of a lot more around this same time. What has been introduced on a new Stern games that wasn't done before?? What features are around the corner that are going to make 90's games with a proven track record worth substantially less? The LCD??? I don't think that's going to be enough.

When I first started buying games, I wasn't doing it out of nostalgia as I had hardly played pinball as a kid. I was always pretty objective about my purchases, but I had some sticker shock on the $2500 TZ's and $3000 AFM's, etc. I eventually acclimated once I knew I was in the hobby for the long haul and I loved those games, so I saved to buy them. I have pins from several different manufacturers (Bally, B/W, Gottlieb, Alvin G, Data East and soon SkitB). So I'm no B/W elitist, but overall they just plain DID make the best, most solid games of all time.

Flame on!

Excellent point!

+1
I love having games knowing that they "ran their race" and are now in retirement, like racing dogs and horses. They full filled the reason for their creation - making money on routes. Now I'm taking care of them in the final years.

And I agree, there are tons of great pins out there. New people to the hobby who read Pinside and RGP could easily get the impression that there are only a few games out there and they are all 3K and above.

1) Supply and demand.

2) Higher NIB costs.

3) Lots of "collectors" looking to make a buck. I'm in the arcade business and in the past year, I've met dozens of new faces who buy a machine (often a pinball) and either they tell me up front, or later I discover that they bought it to flip right away. Sometimes I even see it flipped again. I don't mind, but it's funny (and sometimes frustrating) to see how some buyers will pay more to get a machine from a "collector", even though said "collector" is practically running a business (but probably not paying taxes, fees, etc.).