Which pins are you speaking of? Woodrails? EMs? Early solid state? Or NIBs?

Many will tell you to use the search function. But the search function doesn't work very well if you don't type in everything just so. And then you have to wade through 7 pages of search results that lead mostly to unresolved posts.

Maybe instead of asking something about the bubble bursting, you might try asking about how far, and how high, and for how long will prices keep rising. People will like that.

The questions I would ask are:

1A) How many people own their pins outright and how many have pushed on the monthly payment button?

1B) How many people are employed in jobs that will remain secure in the future?

1C) How many pin owners are retired, have no debt, and pinball has become their retirement hobby? That is me. If the pin market collapsed tomorrow I would still be paying my utilities, eating well, and playing my pins. I would not need dump them if everything fell apart.

2) How much stock market money is fueling the prices, and in some cases, a meteoric rise in prices?

3) How much of these higher prices are related to the pandemic?

Everybody is talking/complaining about how high pin prices have got. But there are enough people chasing and buying that asking prices are going nuts---but someone keeps stepping in a paying up.

I guess you could say that right now that pinball is a seller's market. And Stern sure is taking advantage of it with its annual price increases which lifts the ceiling for all pinball machines.

Here is one item that could slow the used pin market down: To ship one pin is now costing $600.00 to $650.00 a pop. USPS, FedEx, and UPS ship prices are starting to hurt. A medium size USPS priority box with $50.00 worth of insurance costs $17.00 to ship. And in extra insurance to $100.00 and you are looking at $20.00 to ship.

I have flapped my gums for way too long here but you thought you were asking a simple question, looking for a simple answer. It is more complex than simple.

Here is my math. I would like the market to stay hotter than hell as I have another pin I am building and I would like to make some money for my efforts, but now I am wanting a Ghostbusters and wish GB prices would collapse.
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Lets talk about the price/value proposition. I made a thread asking about how much your hobbies cost.

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/how-much-does-your-hobby-cost

On a comparative measure, pinball offers a good value for your entertainment dollar. The absolute first value pinball offers is that to get some action, all you have to do is walk into your game room and throw a switch and you can immerse yourself in action all day long for the price of some kilowatts of electricity. Maybe nano-watts. Replace a rubber ring and a ball every once in awhile and you are still rolling.

Is it 15 degrees outside? Brew a pot of coffee and crank up the pins. Is it 110 in the shade? Turn the AC on, make some iced tea, and fire up the pins. In any type of weather, pinball is a hobby to carry you thru. Just like the Pony Express: " Neither rain, or snow, nor death of night, can keep us from our duty." Or a session of pinball.

Golf: You have to load up the clubs and irons, trek to the golf course, and pay those green fees. Don't forget to factor in all of the lost balls.

Fishing: Sure, you can get by cheap. String up a cane pole and get some worms and walk to the pond. Or you can go the Bass Pro route ( did you know you can finance a boat for 10 years? ).

There are all kinds of hobbies that cost a fortune. And there are a lot of hobbies that require you to keep feeding the money monster.

Pinball? Just plug it in and it is sitting there waiting for your beck and call.

You want the hobby that will cost you a fortune? Start restoring an old car and then feel proud if you get half of your money back when you sell. You have to find the right buyer who will pay up for your custom green and purple poke-a-dot paint job.

The only question you asked that can be answered is this one:

Answer: No ! Sure, some of these guys who have owned their pins for years are getting a nice ride, but the answer is still No !.

Or Germany pre WW II.

Some are starting to talk in terms of 1970s style stagflation.

I don't agree. This is not the pinball I grew up with in a bowling alley and some of the 80s/90s pins displaying with lots of T & A. Stern is making family friendly machines. And people are bringing them home. And teaching their kids how to play.

I think that perhaps the woodrails and EMs might slow down. But these pins coming out today at least give some value of play for the dollar for the casual with the ball savers instead of the drain-o-matics of old.

So, if you have a family and you need some entertainment for them, you can get a pool table---if you have a large room. Or you can get a pinball machine to put it in the corner of the room. Granted, a pool table will probably be a lot cheaper these days but a pin fits better.

In the end, my crystal ball is as clear as yours, so who knows?