First of all - don't think about old vs. new...it means nothing in Pinball (and is one of the reasons I love this hobby). People are forking out 8K for MMR's right now (including me) and that game is over 18 years old!
I don't know...if you want a sure thing and a game that has been proven time and time again to be one of the best/deepest - then LOTR. If you want to buy something that's going to excite you for the next two years (as the code is updated...and updated...etc.) - I'd go with Hobbit.
Personally, I think the LOTR Trilogy is in another category of filmmaking than Hobbit. I just like the movies better. That's why I'd probably go LOTR VE.