Let me start off by saying I'm not an expert or metrologist and I don’t want to scare you I’ve lived in Florida for 40+ years and actually work with hurricane prep and recovery with my work and have delt with several storms in Florida. This storm is a serious one. If your in Pinellas or the Bay Area this storm has the potential for major storm surge 6+ feet. The problem with this storm is the eastern half of the hurricane is the strongest and when it pushes water into Tampa bay there is no where for it to go except low lying areas. The models are starting to converge and it looks like Tampa will be affected even if it passes within a 100 miles in the gulf. I would heed evacuation orders head towards center of state Orlando but leave early evac times will be long the closer the storm gets. This one has a very bad track for those on the west coast of Florida. I wouldn’t want to be beachside trying to ride this one out. Hope it moves further west but after Charlie we saw a quick eastern track as it gets closer to landfall. Usually the media does it’s best to get everyone up in arms but if I were in the Bay Area or costal SW Florida I would take my loved ones and head to higher ground anything past a cat 2 is trouble for the Bay Area. Oh and mikes weather page spaghettimodels.com is probably the best source for models, tracks and analysis. Hope the models change but we are battening down the hatches and preparing for a blow later this week.