I think it comes down to location. I sold a nice one (not HUO) that needed shopped (not badly, but it wasn't brand spanking fresh either) in March for $4300. I had 5 people lined up to buy it the day I put it up for sale.

I sold another one with a faded front cabinet, and some other minor stuff, but freshly shopped for $3700 out the door.

$4500 for a low play HUO sounds spot on to be honest.....

This is why I like pinball... I look at his current collection and think POTC would be a great fit. The game is very stop and go, and plays far differently than what he has in his lineup. OP, if you don't like stop and go, I wouldnt pickup a POTC.... I have a wide variety of pins, and when guests come over, POTC gets a lot of play from players and non-players.....It is easy enough up front to understand what is going on, but deep enough that 4 winds is a challenge for the better players.