If you factor in stock splits Apple was closer to $2.00 I think. Somewhere around 1997.

Coin op in the Great Depression: As LTG noted, coin-op did good in the bad times. There were no jobs (well, that is not true. If unemployment is 25% that means 75% are working) so if you were broke and down to your last nickel and bored you------fed a pinball machine.

The founder of the Holiday Inn motel chain got his start during the depression with pinball machines.

(Google search is wonderful)

https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/14/business/kemmons-wilson-90-dies-was-holiday-inn-founder.html

" He dropped out of high school at 17 and borrowed $50 from a friend to buy a popcorn machine in a local theater. But the manager got rid of him for making more money than he did.

" From popcorn, he switched to the pinball machine business and used his first profits to pay for a house for his mother. He built the house, saving $1,700, by doing the work himself. He then mortgaged his house, which had cost him $2,700, for $6,500 and bought a jukebox business. Other ventures, from an ice cream parlor to home building, quickly followed.

If my pin collection that I have been building gets hit I won't be selling in a panic. I'm retired and everything is paid for. But the poor boys who have loaded up at the credit barn and then lose their job.... I'd have to join that Warren Buffet "blood in the streets" buying opportunity.

The chart O-din put up is interesting.

2001 is when G.W. Bush was inaugurated. As I recall, almost as soon as he took office, the first words out of his mouth is "that the country is going into a recession". By the chart, he was correct, but maybe late in calling it (enter hind site). From February forward there is a little more of downward slide followed by the 9-11 drop.

In 2002 GWB starts talking about Saddam and his Weapons of Mass Destruction. Then the mini recovery and sideways action until around March 2003 when the U.S. invaded Iraq with Shock and Awe.

2004 and 2005 would suggest that war is good for the economy. A quick victory was expected.

In 2006 things stalled out on the chart. What I recall of things happening is that California came out with the 50 year home mortgage, and an outfit called Ditech was pushing zero interest home loans, and I starting hearing from people getting laid off and moving back home with mom and dad.

2008 was all GWB and Obama was inaugurated in Feb. 2009.

2016 and everybody was saying Trump would be bad for the stock market and look at that chart.

The question: Are we at the peak like 2006?

c430316a96de5ac150cd8b775e0828d182245488.png (resized).jpg

I do have to laugh when all of the pundits are saying that inflation is starting to pick up. I remember in 2009 when cat food went from 20 LB. sacks to 16 LBs per sack and the price stayed the same---a 30% price any way you cut it. Sugar was 5 lbs. then 4 lbs; I'm waiting for the 3 lb sack to arrive.

A gallon of milk is still a gallon of milk but the grocers use milk as a price war vehicle. A quart of oil is still a quart but to compensate the price had to go up; No hiding the price increase with smaller containers here.

And finally, we have bailed out all of the banks and all of the underwater homeowners; Somewhere in here Greater Fool Theory has to come in to play.

Next up on the list: We will start hearing about Galloping Inflation.

I know those those types of paddles. But nothing stings like a ping pong paddle on gym shorts.

Yeah, but that is not as dramatic for story telling.

All this has got me to wondering what will happen to prices of the items on Pawn Stars and American Pickers.

Just like some of the old cars that are never driven, some of these games will never be played. The high end collector: "I have this in my collection and you don't."

Not personally, but I have a couple of stories.

I assume you are speaking to me. Yes? You want to hear the stories? They are a bit boring.

Thanks for the invite. I'll do what I do best and put you to sleep
*********************

Depression Glass: A Definition

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_glass

" Depression glass is clear or colored translucent machine made glassware that was distributed free, or at low cost, in the United States and Canada around the time of the Great Depression.

" Most of this glassware was made in the Ohio River Valley of the United States, where access to raw materials and power made manufacturing inexpensive in the first half of the twentieth century. More than twenty manufacturers made more than 100 patterns, and entire dinner sets were made in some patterns.

"Common colors are clear (crystal), pink, pale blue, green, and amber. Less common colors include YELLOW (canary),

*****************************************
I have not seen him in years but an old friend of mine collected, traded, and sold depression glass. Some us here load up a pin and drive for miles to reach the next pin festival to sell a pin, or buy a pin, or gawk, or just shoot the shit. The depression glass hobby is no different.

I had a friend who was into the hobby of buying and selling depression glass. Almost every weekend my friend and his wife would load up the van for the next show & sell. They might drive all the way to Colorado for a show.

One time, when the show was local I went out for a look-see. It was quite impressive with glass of all different colors laid out on folding tables. Beautiful rainbows of colors. Everywhere. Every once in a while you would hear the sound of glass breaking. Many single pieces of glass could be bought for $30.00 or less. However, some of these glass specimens are quite valuable. How about $700.00 for a water pitcher with some parrots festooned all the way around? So, when the sound of breaking glass was heard everybody sort of sucked in their breath.

Some of this originally low-priced glass makes pinball look like a cheap hobby.
****************

Ebay was still in relative infancy when I realized I could clean out my attic and make a tidy sum from my childhood treasures that had been unceremoniously shoveled into boxes years before. I started selling and did very well ( when I saw that a bobble-head doll of a Cleveland Indians baseball player that my mom gave in 1963 was selling for over $400.00 I knew my two pieces of plaster and a spring was destined for a new home. After a while I developed a nice 100% Ebay feedback and had credibility).

My friend called me one day and asked if I could sell a piece of glass for him on Ebay. I said, "Sure."

He had located a guy in Oklahoma who was selling out. This was a guy with money to burn and according to my friend, this dude had developed one hell of a collection of rare depression glass pieces. According to my friend, this well heeled individual was in a competition with some other rich bastard with accumulating rare and very rare pieces of depression glass. Call it a friendly competition, I guess.

The details escape me, but goes along the lines of the money burner getting beat out by the rich bastard for a particular set of rare depression glass pieces. In some way, this was getting rubbed into money burner's face and it pissed him off so bad that he said "screw it" and started selling.

That is the story part of the "I have one and you don't" attitude of high end collectors. You might conclude that these would be selfish individuals. I am not inclined to disagree.

End of Story

***************************
Up above I all-capped the word YELLOW. One of the patterns of depression glass is called Mayfair. There is pink Mayfair, green Mayfair, and I believe there is blue Mayfair. In the hobby these colors are fairly common. And then there is Yellow. I don't much about Yellow other than is ultra rare.

There was a medium size square yellow bowl that was produced. Only TWO were produced. So you are talking scarce. From Money Burner, my friend scored one of these two yellow bowls. He was giddy about it. He said it was worth $7K-$8K and he was getting it for $4000.00 ! One piece of glass for $4K---and you thought pinball machines were expensive. I thought is was all BS.

For my friend, I put up an Ebay auction for this rare piece of glass. We put it on a reserve price auction, of course. It has been too many years but I think we put the reserve of $4K to match his purchase price. I think the final bid I got on that piece of glass was $3800.00. Since it was a reserve auction, I always wondered if we had a real money bid or if it was someone sort of testing the waters to see how high they could go without getting stuck with the bid. I remember that there were not too many bids and at the time I thought they were real bids.

My friend laughed it off and did not seem to be bothered that he might have paid too much and went ahead and added this piece into his nice collection of depression glass.
***************
Here is one last thing you all may be able to relate to.

My friend and his wife owned an extra house in their town that they used as warehouse space for all of their glass. He ways always telling me how much glass they sold at where ever. My friend was just an old country boy; One day he finally admitted to me that they did not make much money at it. That it was their hobby that they could enjoy together, it kept them busy, and they got to meet a lot of people.

My other story is about a different friend who used to paint and "weather" model trains who was sort of "F'd over by a different rich bastard who was into the model train hobby. If you like throwing your money into black holes get into the model train hobby.

Careful, or you will wind up like that red headed female comedian who pulled an effigy of his head out of a box. I forgot her name and I don't think anyone has heard from her since. I think Big T called all of his TV buddies and told them to not broadcast here again. Ever.

I have a short position on that I put on way too early. I have been waiting quite awhile to do some averaging down but I have learned the hard way to NEVER fight the Fed.

Interest rates are going up. We have seen the lows in interest rates. The Prez, is bitching about the Fed jacking rates and screwing up his economy. The trouble for The Prez is if the Fed does not get in front inflation and raise rates, the market will take care of that and kneecap the bond market. The last thing the Fed wants to be doing is following the market.

For years, the govt. has been telling us inflation is not a problem. But I never ha e believed that. Every time I go to the grocery store another package has gotten smaller and the price stays the same. Drop your the size of your box 25% but leave the price the same that is a 33% price increase anyway you cut it.

The Fed has managed to bail out all of the underwater homeowners from 10 years ago. Wages are finally moving up. All the signs are starting to point to the market's unprecedented 10 year run talking a break.

I am of the opinion that The Prez's first two years in office are the best he will be seeing for awhile. He did the the Presidential market cycle ass backwards.

How with it affect the pinball market? Depends on how leveraged up some of these pinball buyers are. I am one of the retirees with a paid off mortgage. I won't be selling my pins but I may find out that I overpaid for them and hope I can scratch enough cash to pick up some screaming distress sales if they come up. My problem is that my little house if chock full of pins and I really cannot be a buyer and I am not willing to take on a mortgage just so I can accumulate more pinball machines.

Actually, I think you are referring to the early 80s when The Fed under Volker boosted rates up to 22%. 30 year bonds were paying 18%. This goes to the case of "if I knew then what I know now" I would have loaded all my IRA money in 18% government bonds. Start with 10,000.00, load up the IRA with $10,000.00 and 30 years later you would have 1.5 million in your IRA. With no worries about the ups and downs of the stock market.

Screen Shot 2018-10-24 at 7.35.54 PM (resized).png

https://www.valuepenguin.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates#nogo

I bought my house in 1979 and paid 10% interest for several years. Then the government came out with a "streamline" refinance package that allowed me to get it down to around 6%-7%. In 1995, I had some extra cash and paid it off. The financial pundits would tell me I would have been better off to "keep that money working" but dumping the mortgage was the best thing I ever did. A paid for house, and a cheap, reliable old car met that I always slept good at night and had money in the bank. You cannot put a price on peace or mind.

Whistling past the graveyard applies here. But you keep your hands off of my Medicare.

This last crisis, The Great Recession, all came about due to Wall Street shenanigans with the mortgage backed securities. Since the local banks could palm off their crappy loans to Wall Street, which "repackaged" the crappy loans with a few good loans and then foisted them and the risk off on the public the banks could go for another round only the next time the loans were even crappier since the local bank could keep the profits and sell off the risk to Wall Street who would repackage another tranche of crappy loans. It worked until it didn't.

Every politician out there is/was in bed with Wall Street.

The Great Depression in the 1930s in an interesting study. How we got there, etc. But two of the things that made a bad situation worse and brought on the Great Depression were the trade barriers that were set up; And interest rates were jacked up.

Country A set up a trade barrier to "protect" its markets and Country B would do likewise. Now, your markets for you to sell to collapse.

The second item that brought on The Great Depression was that The Fed raised interest rates. So, just the time business needed some government help, business could not get capital to operate with.

Ben Bernanke, or Helicopter Ben, as he was called, had studied The Great Depression and knew what rising interest rates brought on. So, Uncle Ben took rates down to zero. I am of the opinion that we would have had in much worse in 2008-2009 had he not dropped rates to the floor.

And what pisses me off the most is that the Wall Street icons got all of these hand slapping free rides for the BS they caused and, as you noted, I can't make any interest money on my savings. But that was Uncle Ben, and Janet Yellen, keeping those rates down so the only way to play the money game is stocks.

It is all kicking the can down the road. I agree. Wall Street needs to get over itself and rates need to normalize. But a lot of companies have larded up in the last 10 years with easy money. They are going to feel some pain.

I think you are being optimistic with the 40 years. I don't know what you consider as an older collector, so say if 40 is old then how many 40 year olds are going to live until 80?

I think there more than a few of us here who are over 50. Let's remain with 80 as the upper age limit ( I was talking with someone a couple of years ago who was selling a Volcano. He was 80 ). Now you are at 30 years until mass liquidation.

Some of us are over 60. Staying with 80, now liquidation is 20 years out.

I'm 66 and have spent the last 3 years chasing the pins that caught my fancy. Somewhere between the it-will-never-happen-to-me-18-year-old-attitude and my current age, I started awakening to my own mortality. I figure if I live to 80 then I am lucky. That is 14 years away.

I have not figured out how I want to play the actuarial odds. Do I want to hold my pins to the bitter end and then you all will be seeing them in an estate sale? Or do I want go "proactive" and start selling off in the next 5-6 years? I can't answer that, yet. I do have a couple of pinballers who are thinking ahead and have asked for dibs

I think your rotation will start happening in the next 10 years. It will be a rolling wave.

I am thinking about that a lot lately.

I have always been interested in the Presidential Election Cycle.

During a President's first two years he wants to get the economic house in order because his predecessor left him a mess to clean up. These two years are hard on the markets, and the economy, and jobs. And then when year 3 rolls around, The Prez will start pulling all the stops and the party in power will start pushing money. And miraculously, the economy starts picking up steam and people go back to work and by the time election arrives in year 4, everybody is happy and vote Prez in for a 2nd term.

Our current Prez has not followed the play book. First, during the election, he talked about how The Fed needed to get interest rates back up because savers were getting hosed. And he talked about all of the "dirty" money the hedge funds were raking in by paying very little taxes. Wall Street was not looking forward to having our current Prez win the election.

And what happened? Ever since Day 1, Prez has been kissing Wall Street's ass. He has been jawboning The Fed to keep rates low. And showing not fiscal restraint at all, from Day 1 he stepped on the gas and it has been happy party times.

I think we have a reverse Presidential Election cycle starting to unfold. I am sort of looking for everything in Washington to turn to shit in the next two years.

When I was 14 I could hardly wait until I was 16 so I could start driving.

When I was 19 and 20 I could barely wait until I was 21 so I could go to the tittie bars.

When I was 62 and laid off and trying to find the jack to pay for a horrendous health policy ($6700.00 deductible ) I could hardly wait until I was 65 and get Medicare. Now I can afford to live.

Medicare Health insurance now costs me one decent pin per year. Obamacare was costing me 2 pins per year.

For those who cannot get subsidies, insurance can really suck. Like in suck the life from the economy.
I did not directly answer your question but it is a valid question.

government says inflation is under control, though. It all depends on what you are looking at.

Very well could be. The trick is to try and figure out which pins are mostly likely to be in in the hands of someone who is over leveraged and making big mortgage payments or who has been financing their pin purchases and what kinds of pins they might own.

I think of the miles I drove to put together my small collection. There are a couple more I would like to have, but distance and ability to travel would be key. And if it gets really bad, the highways may be locked down and not be passable. So---no deal.

Sure. They can be cleaned. Set them in sun for a couple of hours. Get some Lysol. Wipe them down. The virus does not live forever.

Once this virus passes and people are not getting sick and/or dying, the survivors will not forget about it. But it will be in the past and most are not going to let the past rule their lives.

When it is over (The "when" is the big question) , people will put the masks away. They won't be carrying hand sanitizer. Life will go back to normal. And pinballs will be played.

Good point. Glass off and flip the play field up. Maybe cover the flipped up play field with a blanket. You would not want to do it in the middle of summer at high noon. Early morning, maybe. You need sun. Not heat.