Yeah we just spent 20 million on expanding one of our plants and the entire line is just sitting there unused. Luckily I'm an account manager so it doesn't impact me but all of the employees we hired to man that line are. It grinds my gears when I hear people say that this trade war isn't impacting anything yet.

I agree this could get really ugly. Right when I am doing the best I ever had in my field of work too. I’ll sell my wife before my pinball machines.

LIAR!!

A true pinball fan with his priorities in order.

My hats off to you sir.

LTG : )

Hes lying. His wife is awesome and he couldn't live without her. Liar liar pants on fire trust me!

Wow. I'm guessing that's a joke, but if not, that's a shame. Pins would be the first thing to go in my house.

Oh snap i think o-din just leaked Stern's next title!

I'm pretty sure the "Unofficial Barometer" that's widely used is coffee. When coffee shops slow down, that's the very beginning of a recession. I'm not sure if you meant "Car Parts" or "Car Sales", but when car PARTS slow down, that actually means things are doing very well. Theory is, that when bad times come, you're afraid to commit to a new car, so you'll tend to keep 'ol Betsey going by replacing parts.

When coffee shops slow down, that's the very beginning of a recession.

June 18, 2018 "Starbucks Is Set To Close 150 Stores Across The Country
That’s up from the around 50 stores that usually close each year."

If you think about the rate at which higher paying jobs are disappearing from this country, I think I saw an article a month or so ago that said something like 80% of the jobs or more in the country are $20 or less an hour now, and factor that in to the next down turn, it only makes me think that the shocks will come harder and faster as time goes on. Each shock with less "recovery" than before. I'm going to guess that there aren't may people who make $20 or less buying pinball, that don't still live at mom and dads house. Before I'm dead, I fully expect the US to be a certified 3rd world country.

Lots of times it has to do with greedy landlords renting space at airports, highway/toll road service centers etc.

By car parts currently and used by ford, dodge and other major companies. Which is correct in saying "car sales". When you work 60 plus hours a week trying to supply these companies and go down to 40 or less hours. That means a dip at least.

Many of them are wise enough to know that pinball is not an investment tho. So, they likely aren’t buying either

I have a short position on that I put on way too early. I have been waiting quite awhile to do some averaging down but I have learned the hard way to NEVER fight the Fed.

Interest rates are going up. We have seen the lows in interest rates. The Prez, is bitching about the Fed jacking rates and screwing up his economy. The trouble for The Prez is if the Fed does not get in front inflation and raise rates, the market will take care of that and kneecap the bond market. The last thing the Fed wants to be doing is following the market.

For years, the govt. has been telling us inflation is not a problem. But I never ha e believed that. Every time I go to the grocery store another package has gotten smaller and the price stays the same. Drop your the size of your box 25% but leave the price the same that is a 33% price increase anyway you cut it.

The Fed has managed to bail out all of the underwater homeowners from 10 years ago. Wages are finally moving up. All the signs are starting to point to the market's unprecedented 10 year run talking a break.

I am of the opinion that The Prez's first two years in office are the best he will be seeing for awhile. He did the the Presidential market cycle ass backwards.

How with it affect the pinball market? Depends on how leveraged up some of these pinball buyers are. I am one of the retirees with a paid off mortgage. I won't be selling my pins but I may find out that I overpaid for them and hope I can scratch enough cash to pick up some screaming distress sales if they come up. My problem is that my little house if chock full of pins and I really cannot be a buyer and I am not willing to take on a mortgage just so I can accumulate more pinball machines.

Actually, I think you are referring to the early 80s when The Fed under Volker boosted rates up to 22%. 30 year bonds were paying 18%. This goes to the case of "if I knew then what I know now" I would have loaded all my IRA money in 18% government bonds. Start with 10,000.00, load up the IRA with $10,000.00 and 30 years later you would have 1.5 million in your IRA. With no worries about the ups and downs of the stock market.

Screen Shot 2018-10-24 at 7.35.54 PM (resized).png

https://www.valuepenguin.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates#nogo

I was shocked when I heard what interest rates on homes used to be at in the 80’s, your right O-din! None of my friends ever had interest rates in the double digits... I think the highest I can remember was around 8%

I bought my house in 1979 and paid 10% interest for several years. Then the government came out with a "streamline" refinance package that allowed me to get it down to around 6%-7%. In 1995, I had some extra cash and paid it off. The financial pundits would tell me I would have been better off to "keep that money working" but dumping the mortgage was the best thing I ever did. A paid for house, and a cheap, reliable old car met that I always slept good at night and had money in the bank. You cannot put a price on peace or mind.

Whistling past the graveyard applies here. But you keep your hands off of my Medicare.

This last crisis, The Great Recession, all came about due to Wall Street shenanigans with the mortgage backed securities. Since the local banks could palm off their crappy loans to Wall Street, which "repackaged" the crappy loans with a few good loans and then foisted them and the risk off on the public the banks could go for another round only the next time the loans were even crappier since the local bank could keep the profits and sell off the risk to Wall Street who would repackage another tranche of crappy loans. It worked until it didn't.

Every politician out there is/was in bed with Wall Street.

The Great Depression in the 1930s in an interesting study. How we got there, etc. But two of the things that made a bad situation worse and brought on the Great Depression were the trade barriers that were set up; And interest rates were jacked up.

Country A set up a trade barrier to "protect" its markets and Country B would do likewise. Now, your markets for you to sell to collapse.

The second item that brought on The Great Depression was that The Fed raised interest rates. So, just the time business needed some government help, business could not get capital to operate with.

Ben Bernanke, or Helicopter Ben, as he was called, had studied The Great Depression and knew what rising interest rates brought on. So, Uncle Ben took rates down to zero. I am of the opinion that we would have had in much worse in 2008-2009 had he not dropped rates to the floor.

And what pisses me off the most is that the Wall Street icons got all of these hand slapping free rides for the BS they caused and, as you noted, I can't make any interest money on my savings. But that was Uncle Ben, and Janet Yellen, keeping those rates down so the only way to play the money game is stocks.

It is all kicking the can down the road. I agree. Wall Street needs to get over itself and rates need to normalize. But a lot of companies have larded up in the last 10 years with easy money. They are going to feel some pain.

I'm at a fixed rate 2.625%... it's brutal man!

Are you suggesting...

The Bubble may burst?!?!?!

I’m thinking people are realizing that everything always bounces back. If your not retiring in the next decade wait out the storm. I’m hoping for a crash. People are getting greedy with their valuation of things...

The goal is to die with the most debt.

Google Home told me average household debt in the U.S. is around $130K.

Including mortgage? That seems low including mortgages, but high without them.

This is why Joe Public always gets destroyed in the market on their own. They let their emotions of fear and greed dictate how they invest.

Why has Warren Buffet averaged almost 20% for the last 40 yrs? Read a few books about his methodology. Actually since 1965 the S&P has averaged 9.7% while Buffet has returned 20.8% annually during the same time period.

Bonds are a terrible investment in a rising rate environment and on pace for one of the worst years in history.

You can buy things like PSA (Public Storage), green today and an excellent dividend, WM (Waste Management) another excellent dividend and well run company. Btw, trash is going away. MKC (McCormick spices) also green today, nice dividend etc. TJX (Home Goods, TJ Max, Marshalls etc.) Dividend and same store sale increasing for the last decade year over year. Walk into one of those stores right now.

That's just to name a few.

Buy great companies when they go on sale and others are in panic mode. That's how you accumulate long term wealth. It's a marathon, NOT a sprint!

And btw, a flattening yield curve of 2's-10's treasuries have predicted a recession 9 out of the last 10 times, the question is when?

Educate yourself and choose wisely.

Wouldnt today have been affected by the inverted rate on t bills?

And General Electric.

The economy will have its ups and downs. I used to consider my collection as somewhat of an investment. Now I see it in relative terms. I love the machines and may make or lose a buck, but I'm in no rush. I'll either get burried in one and leave the rest behind or sell them when I at least get most of what I paid back.

The true issue is not the economy though if you're concerned about value. It's saturation. When I started collecting, every single pin in my area that was posted for sale online was gone in 30 mins or less, gouging prices included. Now I see a variety of choices online at any given day, even great classic titles for similar pricing as the last two years or so. I am now often seeing lower prices.

I prefer 90s DMD games, and when I inquire why pinheads are selling them, it is almost always to finance the newest NIB. This can only happen so many times as the statistical purchasing is outpacing the growth of the consumer base. What happens when all of the upper middle guys have 10 Sterns in their gameroom and they all want the newest?

My take is that there are just too many pinball machines, period. The overall collector market value will continue to go down with each new title, especially good titles. When the older generation of collectors die off, say in 40 years, these will be worth peanuts simply because there are so many. I'll bet my collection on that one.

I think you are being optimistic with the 40 years. I don't know what you consider as an older collector, so say if 40 is old then how many 40 year olds are going to live until 80?

I think there more than a few of us here who are over 50. Let's remain with 80 as the upper age limit ( I was talking with someone a couple of years ago who was selling a Volcano. He was 80 ). Now you are at 30 years until mass liquidation.

Some of us are over 60. Staying with 80, now liquidation is 20 years out.

I'm 66 and have spent the last 3 years chasing the pins that caught my fancy. Somewhere between the it-will-never-happen-to-me-18-year-old-attitude and my current age, I started awakening to my own mortality. I figure if I live to 80 then I am lucky. That is 14 years away.

I have not figured out how I want to play the actuarial odds. Do I want to hold my pins to the bitter end and then you all will be seeing them in an estate sale? Or do I want go "proactive" and start selling off in the next 5-6 years? I can't answer that, yet. I do have a couple of pinballers who are thinking ahead and have asked for dibs

I think your rotation will start happening in the next 10 years. It will be a rolling wave.

I totally agree. My number was pretty conservative, but it is going to take a while for the prices to truly tank to peanuts levels, like a TZ for $500 or less. Most of the current pin comunity will need to be out of the market, but I truly believe that low value is coming.

You guys ever zoom out and think about what earth will look like in a few million years. They say humans will have been watered down to basically one race with big eyes and opaque skin...

Would sterns wood even last that long?

Time and Mortality....
This needs at least a few drinks to start!

Pinballs future???? The economy????
I feel we are in the peak decade...dont know
when it degrades...

If an economic crash occurs in 2019 its simple, Hey, I need 5000 dollars cash quick. (Looking around). I know, sell the pinball machine! (or two,or three).
Approximately 1900 people are thinking,and doing the same thing.
For the rich money no object Owner. Wow, price is dropping on my investment,perhaps I should liquidate while I can, otherwise I could be stuck on hold for 3-plus years and end up with old machines with less value. Time to sell.
For the Manufacturer. Cut back the order for raw materials and use up what we have, also,it may be time to lay off Charlie and 4 others, for now. Offer a Buyers incentive program.
For the Operator. No, sorry,not looking to buy anything else right now, its a ghost town in here. I dropped to 50 cents a game or 6 dollars all night, as well as offered lower beer prices, the Customers just aren't coming.
For the Collector. If I wait, it will go down more. I'm offering bottom dollar, cash is hard to come by.

Did the economy crash again?