I have been collecting for a little over 17 years. I cannot say that I feel priced out yet. I have over 50 pins in the collection, but I have no modern stern or JJP. I cannot justify spending that much money on a toy. I know that statement sounds funny, with the amount of games I own, but I cannot tell myself that a new GZ prem is fun enough to replace a couple of my DMD era B/W pins. I have a tough time buying games over 5K. Ive only spent 5k 3 times on my Mystery Castle, Williams Mini Bowl, and very recently (last month) a Williams IJ.
I will say that when I look at the pinside classifieds, its disheartening to see the majority of what's for sale to essentially be above 6k. And anything under that mark starts at $2500 and goes up. Unfortunately that gets you Cyclones, Secret Services, and other low tier games, when it used to get you games like JM, Demo, BSD, stuff WCS, ect.
A good portion is all overpriced sterns/JJP stuff. And you know what? That's fine. Kind of like the new car market, someone had to pay sticker price for the car to drop significantly when you drive it off the lot. The problem is that a good portion of collectors who overpaid, are not willing to take a financial hit for how deep they got into their game. So all you are seeing are these high prices that guys aren't willing to budge on.
The deals are out there guys, but If you cannot wait a little bit, those deals will never translate to you.