It's a private company, so they don't release that info. We can assume 1000 on the LE, but there are no counts for the rest of the models.

Williams/Bally doesn't offer any of us support and we're doing just fine thanks.

perhaps you should purchase through a distributor then. that way, if JJP does not do well (which i personally believe is not going to happen) then you will still have someone to deal with for service. with all pinball though, if you are looking at this piece of entertainment as an "investment" then you are already going to be upset. pinball machines are meant to be played, not just looked at under a glass case. there are some cases where machines have actually gone up in value, but the majority of them either go down or just hold their value. that being said, if you are looking for a good "entertainment" piece then Wizard of Oz is a great choice.

Where are you located? you might have a distributor in the area.

Christopher
King Pin Games

My understanding is right around 2,000 total games have been shipped as of a month ago. How that breaks down by model is anyone guess. Green, red, standard, rescue, proto, etc.

Perhaps investment is a poor choice of words by the OP. Perhaps the real sentiment is that a buyer simply wants to avoid very large losses, whether it be at resale or due to lack of replacement parts for key components. (A machine not working is no better than no machine.)

With regard to replacement parts, the biggest risks are purpose built parts with a history of failure. The main PC, for example, would not qualify as purpose built and is using standard reliable technology. The light boards are a known area of concern and are purpose built and would represent a potential concern if JJP does not survive.

As to the question of how many machines are sold, there are the 1000 limited editions that are for sure. The fact that JJP has added the 75th edition on top of the unknown number of regular production may or may not speak to how steady the sales are from JJP's view. For example it doesn't make sense to add another series if you can't sell what you're already making, like trying to sell a limited edition Isuzu.

I think at this point Jack has turned the corner from start up company to stable ground.

I personally would not hesitate a deposit. GREAT job to Jack and the whole JJP team !!!

On the "stable" comment, it's worth noting that JJP needed a capital infusion approximately a year ago. On the other hand, they did find someone who had enough confidence in JJP to provide funding and the press release refers to these funds for expansion purposes rather than sustaining operation. As always press releases are to be taken with a grain of salt.

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/jersey-jack-pinball-partnership-with-jda

Sorry for the multiple posts, but this is a question I have been pondering as well.

I think they're stable. And they are lined up to get a cash infusion from me for JJP#3 (Hi Pat!). All this other malarkey is just that, malarkey. I've owned WOZ for over a year already, and I bet #3 is even better.

Depends on the definition of stable. I think the company leadership, technology and teams are most definitely stable. However, it is still too early to say JJP as a company will be here in the future. IMHO (and this is most definitely my opinion since I have no inside info or insight in to the operations of JJP) they are running mostly, if not entirely, on the JDA funding.

I think JDA provided that funding (in the form of an equity stake) because Jack had a real product (WoZ) and, more importantly, customers committed to buying it. He also had a business plan to demonstrate where the company was going through the secured Hobbit license and Pat's third game. I also think JJPs sell through or pre-sell through numbers for WoZ were close enough to what Stern (the industry leader) was doing. JJPs product itself also represented a step forward in this segment.

Based on those things (again, completely in my opinion) -- JDA clearly believed the investment of their money was worth the risk because Jack had all the pieces in place for a viable pinball manufacturing company: an experienced team, a developed and shipping product, company structure and paying customers.

However, getting back to "stable" -- there is no way JJP is assured success at this point. They can't be profitable right now. In the venture cap world it's all about EBITDA (look it up). My belief is that the amount of the capital required to get JJPs operating structure in place (building, fixtures, development costs for WoZ, etc) and day-to-day overhead such as salaries ongoing expenses of developing and producing The Hobbit and Pat's game are burning cash. JJP cannot not have positive EBITDA based on WoZ sales. There is just no way I think that's possible, which is why they needed money from JDA.

What I think is that JJP is currently operating on the capital being provided by JDA. JDA has probably given JJP a minimum of three years to show positive EBITDA. Of course, we have no idea what the terms of that equity agreement are. I will assume, given my perception of the risk involved, that JDA is more than 50% owner. Maybe not. This is just speculation by me. Assuming JDA is a 50%+ owner and JJP is not profitable at some point, they can shut it down and sell off the IP to recoup some of their money. If JDA is less than 50% equity owner, that means Jack is still in control but if JDA pulls out there would certainly be something in the agreement about them getting some of their money back somehow. JDA is not going to just lose money and walk away if it fails.

End game is this: just because JJP is operating now and has Hobbit an Pat's game coming by no means guarantees their long term survival. Survival is about positive EBITDA and if they are not able to show positive EBIDTA down the road there is no way JDA is just going to continue to throwing money at it.

I say we won't know the outcome until sometime in 2016 or maybe 2017. If Hobbit, Pat's game and whatever else comes out of Lakewood in 2016 sells well enough and makes money, then JJP will be stable.

And for the record -- I am a WoZ owner and am anxious to see what's Pat's game is. I want JJP to survive but business is business and positive EBITDA is king. Assuming JJP produces two games per year, can they be or come close to profitability by producing and selling 4 games over the next two years (2015/2016)? Time will tell...

How many WOZ have been sold? One more If I can talk my wife into it.

RandyV - I was hoping we wouldn't get too geeky here. That said, to restate what you have already written, it's understandable that JJP would need capital to get started or find that they need more capital than originally expected. Stable, in this case, probably means something like Stern, where presumably all costs and investments for the future are paid by a somewhat predictable cash flow. Say what you will about Stern products, but the products are released on a fairly regular cadence. I'm sure JJP is working on getting there, but as you noted, is probably not there yet.

JJP seems to be set up to be the BMW of the pinball world to Stern's Toyotas. We'll see if there is a sustainable market here.

2000+ machines sold.

What is the actual BOM cost per machine? 4,000? He sold most directly correct?

I'm thinking he received at least 6,500 average price per machine. I agree many paid more, some though distributors probably paid Jack less.

So that leaves $2,500 per machine profit times 2000 machines. $5,000,000

Take out $1,000,000 for development costs. I really hope it's not more than that since other options exist that certainly would be cheaper.

He's been in business how many years now? 4? I'm really not sure on that.

5 mil minus 1 mil development= 4 mil to pay other expenses. 1 million a year if it's been 4 years. $800,000 if it's been 5 years.
Those expenses would include of course payroll, building rent and the other normal stuff. I'm guessing these expenses basically ate up all this money. The huge wildcard here is how much the early machine warranty claims cost.

IMO they are doing ok, but you can see why they needed to take on a partner, and that's with 2,000 machines sold. Had they only sold 500 clearly they would be out of business by now.

I'm just trying to make a ballpark cash flow estimate. My numbers very well could be way off. Anyone else care to throw a guess out?

Don't forget the Hobbit money.

@nosro: LOL. I got a little carried away but you clearly got my point. JJP will be here for at least a few years. It's the time between now and then and what they sell that will determine it (duh).

@smalltowguy: I hadn't run the numbers but what you have there is interesting. There has to be a minimum sell through to make it work. Would love to know what the bom and overhead are.

My standard says it's #700. Was made recently.

Figure 1,000 ECLEs...700 or so Standards...Maybe 400 RR?

I think you might be really short on some of the costs. For instance, 1 mil for development. I'd put it significantly higher. Both in time and costs. They built an entirely new platform from scratch. They didn't even have software to write their code in. All the design of the boards, multiple redesigns of the light boards both before and after release. Granted, a lot of that cost gets amortized over multiple game releases, but the cost was all up front.

I'm pretty sure, after investing a nice chunk of change, JDA changed their minds and bailed on JJP. Not sure what that tells you about the viability of the company.

how many WoZ's have they sold?
all of them

if you are concerned, wait. See how the rollout of The Hobbit goes
if that goes as smooth as silk, then I would become a customer
if it is as bumpy as the first 12 months of production of Woz, then I would hold off on becoming a JJP customer

My experience is that when working out the total cost of a project, the BOM always ends up being comparatively small against the cost of human capital ( which includes salaries but also office space) unless there is significant carry over from some previous project. That's why every industry tries to make things reusable and modular. Develop once, make lots. So I also think one million seems too low considering JJP is starting from scratch.

I suspect the BOM price doesn't even begin to tell the story of JJP's viability for the future.

I didn't include the Hobbit money because they haven't been produced yet. Until production starts I don't believe you can count that money. They may have used that money for Hobbit pre-production inventory but I really hope they haven't used it for Woz production. If they did and people stop pre-ordering and sending deposits JJP could have a cash flow problem.

I could very well be way off on the numbers. As has been pointed out perhaps the development number is low and perhaps the BOM is high.

I really would like to buy a JJP pin, just can't get into the Woz or Hobbit theme. I'm not pre-ordering though.

My understanding is that this is correct. To my knowledge, that private investment did not go thru.

Wow. Talk about pulling numbers out of your butt. JJP bled money in the first three years. I'd say your BOM ($4000) is a little short, development ($1M) is way short and you completely left out labor and overhead. The price increase to $9000+ shows the real price point where they can make money. Considering JJP told me they were expecting to sell 13,000+ units of WOZ back in 2011, I'd say that 2000 sold did not make them any profit at all. We will never know the true numbers, but I would bet that JJP would love to be able to say your numbers were true.

All things considered a start-up like this can't expect to be profitable until the second or third game completes production.

No idea on the whole story, but other things did.

LTG : )

13,000+ units of WOZ?? That is crazy talk right there. LOL. If he really thought he could sell that many, then he is VERY lucky to still be in business.

Here is the deal, when you are dealing with a small business this complex, there is always plenty of risk.......one could easily argue you are never out of the woods. I have done my share of JJP trashing and will continue to if they ever give me a reason, but I have not trashed them in a very long time as they appear to be learning from their mistakes and appear to have done an amazing job with TH. What they have done and accomplished............this shit is not easy.........Pretty amazing in fact. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that the profit won't come until the 3rd game rolls out.

If I played a pin I like, I'm going to buy it whether the company that makes it is around later or not. Always have Pinside to help if it needs repairs.

IMO, they will need to produce a $5,000 pin.

There's only so many high priced pins that can be sold on a yearly basis.

Good to hear. That whole on/off private investment announcement was left disappointingly murky, and frankly a bit negative. Glad something did come together, related or not.