The coil dust could happen within a 1000 plays, but the mushroomed coil stop that holds onto the sleeve would take closer to 4000 plays imo.
Plays or flips? I watch my 5 year old play a game in the shop, and she mashes those flipper buttons relentlessly. 10k plays would on probably correlate to over 100k flips MOL. A route game averaging 100 plays per week would probably have flipper hardware looking like that in 40-50 weeks.
My initial response is about 10,000.
You could, however, chronicle it and tell us how long it takes to get back to looking like that.
I'll need to see a high quality schematic from FedEx/Kinko's or OfficeMax before I can render a number.....
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