the territories was to PREVENT people from under cutting each other and just selling on price alone. Channel management is not about getting customers the lowest prices - it's about ensuring everyone can stay healthy. Margin to the channel, margin to the end-user.

You hear everyone moaning about Walmart putting local businesses out of business? Very similar... the 'other' guy comes in with lesser offerings, but changes customer expectation of pricing... under cuts the incumbent who can no longer operate at the service levels they used to due to the pricing pressures. The guy either cuts his services or gets out because there isn't enough margin left in the business.

Customer gets lower prices... but due to lower margins.. there is less money in the channel to do value added services and less people interested in selling things.

"race to the bottom"

Two words... Drop Targets

of course lead with your highest margin product... same as Stern leading with the LE.

Why is 50% complete to be expected at this point? The project was supposed to be done last year was it not? I don't get why the tweaks made since its first public flipping would mean losing all that was some before

Your missing that they are missing not made up deadlines... But their own estimates

I can't put my finger on these 'send me your email' posts..

Does it remind me more of this..
scam.jpg

or this..
vtvseries.jpg

Blog.. you keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it means...

exactly what they said about game #2 because they had all that experience from WoZ... and how has that worked out for you?

The labor is cheap and is paid incrementally... the cost is all the parts you need to buy well up front. Something JJP has been struggling with.

Somehow I don't think lack of qualified manual labor is behind JJP's low output...

Well yeah, people tend to stop giving you terms and shipping stuff on credit when you stop paying vendors or allow disputes to carry on w/o payment. We are well past any 'lead time' issues.. WOZ games have been being built for ages now, yet they STILL can't ramp up any kind of volume... in a period they still have struggled to find cash flows. They are a factory - to get cash you gotta ship stuff.. yet they still can't do that. I doubt JJP is going 'lets stretch these orders out to ensure some slow trickle of cashflow over the next 12m'. They already have the next game queued up.. they need to crank up the factory output to convert all that R&D to INCOME.

So what's the excuse for failing to being able to ramp up woz production then? The man just said he has a sales forecast that will outpaces his production capacity by far... And has a huge backlog of games he already owes...

The hobbit changes don't justify letting any of that fester

The session mentioned 700-800 more wozs he expected to build in two years.. In addition to the hobbits he already owes... Plus whatever happens with #3. If the man has sales demand to predict such great numbers yet to be sold of his 'old' game... Why would he not be converting that demand into invoices now? He is either full of it... Or can't build enough games to fulfill demand.

He doesn't mention time to deliver because they don't have a good answer under their control.

Uhh its night and day different. The difference.... Stern had other shipping products creating revenue. Stern did go back and revisit titles in demand to FILL that demand... JJP has demand they can't convert into revenue because they can't build enough games. They are lacking revenue generation and suffering in cash flow because they don't have enough product to ship. 40 days (who asked if he meant cal days vs biz days?) is horrible for something that is in production right now!

The longer every game takes to build, the more it costs.

You are going to try to convince us shipping a handful of games a week is enough revenue to support your entire org? Or

We are not rubes jack. You may have reserves but cash flow is in vs out. You can micro-manage out to stretch it... But you need to ship. You boast about demand... But are mum on moving units.

Stern has proven their capacity and output... Gary doesn't have to give us numbers... They are a known commodity. Jack on the other hand keeps making boasts about what they WILL do... notice the difference??? One is promises, one is delivery. Stern isn't staring down the barrel with months of delays holding their production back with little to fill the gap. Stern isn't burdened with 6++ months of backordered product that must be built with little to no new revenue for that work... work whose cost that has still has to be burdened.

Stern and JJP are in very different boats... JJP has a ton of baggage, and hasn't demonstrated the ability to get out from under it. That's the point being highlighted... Just like with WOZ... JJP has all these backorders to fill. JJP promised #2 wouldn't suffer the same fate... I'm asking 'wheres the beef' when it comes to fixing the manufacturing bottleneck... so those hobbits CAN get out the door.

You forgot - 'and do so in a sustainable manner'. Anything can be solved if you just throw time and money at it.. the problem is neither of those are free or abundant. So a company must achieve their goals and do so in a manner that will be sustainable so they can continue to do so... else they will just go dark regardless of the best product or intentions.

You also left out 'prove credible with the market' -- so people will take risks and buy high value items from them.

Buyers need confidence in the product and the company. The concern is given the long run rate with limited return... is the sustainability there? The creditor reports hurt that story as does the continued problems of lack of manufacturing output. Jack made lots of promises after WoZ got going about how #2 would be different. Do you feel #2 has been different?

I think the market is willing to pay their prices... I think they have the staff to make leading games. But they gotta demonstrate the ability to produce and do so in a cadence that will allow them to survive.

That's only an accounting twist... It's not like the money is held back from the company... They just can't book it as revenue... But since they are private... It only matters when jack shops the company to investors. The money could be spent prior. The question is have they spent it prior... Or been able to keep it in reserve.

I doubt pinball sales.com and invisiglass sales are enough to keep them cash positive... So they gotta get those woz games pumping out the door...

I look at it as not being overly ambitious for their first game. Walk before you run... so to speak. Sounds like from the Maine show that FT is being much more welcomed as a solid package than when originally launched.

These price comparisons will always be tough given the Europe vs US builds.. so you're just trading places on who is taking it on the shipping/currency penalties. Plus, heighway will have the modular design which also obfuscates the comparison on a one on one.

Now represents more years on the clock.

When you startup a new company... you take a big pile of money and start spending it to get the company up and running... and keep spending that money until you sell enough product, consistently, to start paying the bills itself. But you buy time by having this big pile of money at the start. How long you can go before the money runs out you call your 'runway'. The longer they operate without a steady stream of games shipping... the greater risk of the runway running out.

Did you know the irony is that guy's name is Jo(h)n too?? But no JPop

They went through a lot of justification of how much they changed the game since Expo and the level of cost and effort that took.

The real nice part was doing side-by-side of the art changes from the Expo game to the current game. They explained that with the delay they had access to IP that was released after their initial designs, so they opt'd to incorporate that newly available content as they opened the design back up.

The side by side art comparisons really show how much brighter the new art is (light blues and brighter reds and greens vs the older greys, darker greens, etc).

They talked a bit about flexibility (or lack of) when dealing with IP holders.. and Keith talked a bit about how its different now vs when they did LOTR when Peter Jackson/Wingnut was not as established. Now they got very little info ahead of the release.

In the Q&A, someone finally addressed the elephant in the room about production.. Jack's answer was basically there are parts coming in all the time... some things are constrained in vacations, lack of urgency, etc.. but he said

- he hopes Hobbit is in production by end of Sept
- he hopes to announce Lawlor's game before the end of the year (it was kind of eluded to Expo.. but can't remember if he said outright).

I get the impression it was 'get Hobbit pumping out' before announcing Lawlor's game. He said its very far along (forget the words he used.. but gave the impression it was closer to a playable game than just a design).

Jack did not give any specifics about addressing their production output. He mentioned a 30 day time to ship currently... said he can keep building Woz til 2017. Was not precise in his answer in how he could/would/wouldn't be able to manage 1-3 games in production at the same time.. but inferred he'd want to be selling all three simultaneously.

On the showfloor... the games display is visually stunning... 'multi-media smorgasbord' I said. The screen looks incredibly sharper and more vivid than WoZ... maybe just the content, but it really pops.

The lighting added to the pop-up figures makes ALL the difference (flickering light from below). They look incredible. The PF art is nice and inviting. The armor is nice. The game is still pretty confusing on what you are supposed to be doing... but 3ball multiball and hitting monster hurry-ups can be had all day with easy for the 'walk up and play' angle.

This particular prototype had a problem with the left VUK.. but looked to just be a typical mechanical VUK issue.

The basic yellow flippers look lost where the rest of the game is so detailed.

By my math.. end of Sept is 7-8 weeks away. We call that almost 2 months.. I don't really think of 2 months as 'several weeks' but I guess that's a personal interpretation.

I wouldn't be counting on any 'real volume' of games. Sounds like they are going to continue at similar volumes as they are now. He was even asked about production volume and he didn't address the point. So I would expect the same slow trickle we have now, but he will be mixing in WoZ and TH as needed it seems for the foreseeable future.

The whole production topic was not even part of Jack's speech, it only came up in Q&A. I noticed they didn't even call the visuals/art they were showing 'the final version' which was a little interesting. Not once in the presentation did they say 'the final...' as if things were still up in the air... or maybe they've just been so conditioned to later changes they don't call anything final

Jack wasn't clear on 'shipping' vs 'building' either in his Sept comment. I don't recall if the question was 'when will hobbit be shipping' or was it 'when will hobbit be finished?'. Either way, no biggie... the key takeaway is they aren't close enough to nail down dates with any precision... that's what anyone needs to know. Beyond that, its just the waiting game.

He did say adamently that they weren't going to do pre-orders, but did say something to the effect of taking DEPOSITS. At what point would deposits come into play wasn't really discussed. So deposits... secure your order, but don't fund the company, etc kind of thinking.

Launched doesn't mean finished or shipping... Just announced.

The big thing here is jack taking in another group of investors. It must be getting crowded at the head of the table...

I think the distaste was warranted. What really helped TRON was the mod scene - it brought elements to what is otherwise a really borderline fugly game. Go play a bare stock Pro after not seeing one for so long and you go EWWW. The game was dark, lacked cool PF art, another goofy lenticular translite, had recycled features like the drop bank (which we had just had with Avatar as well). The factory light tubes were a neat add, but weren't central enough to the game to overcome the other bits. As people played the game more and more, the lure for the gameplay started to develop.. but it was still kind of an ugly duckling. Then when they brought out the other translites, we got the arcade mod, eventually eli got his ramp kit working, the whole UV LED angle came along... now Tron really starts to become a complete desirable package.

Iron Man was a good earner from the start... but the collectors saw it as a barebones game (which it was). When Stern is heading in a bad direction, it was more of the same... skimping on parts, skimping on art... the game just looked cheaper than what people were accustomed to. Again, as people got to work with the game more some started to appreciate elements of the game play... but its still an acquired taste IMO.

Its a grail theme for me... but when the game came out and we played it at York I had zero interest in acquiring the game. Dark, generic shots, rehashed toy, no real fun pin callouts from the cast, etc. It wasn't until much later (in the last 2 years or so) that the game has really grown on me... and mainly because of Pros that have been decked out. I have one on loan right now that its pretty much the only game I play right now It's a real keeper that is impressive when mod'd out tastefully.

But it takes a lot to get there..
LEDs + OCD
Arcade Mod
Flynn Sign
Scoop LED
Pitbits plastics
Pinbits pop covers + UV lights
Eli Ramp Kit
Alt Translite
Shaker
Sub

Optionals:
Orange Laser Cut Armor
Lit lightcycles and recognizer

Contrast that with more recent games like ST Pro... which are pretty awesome stock. But Tron will hate on you, and that can turn people off... but so can AC/DC. Both games lure you with the 'you almost had it...' objective/payouts.

WOZ had such a catalog of various things to do.. I never got that 'you almost got there..' draw that keeps you wanting to try try again. The Hobbit with its loaded catelog of things to do could suffer the same. I can't say we knew enough at replay to try to get any 'progression' in the game. It was mainly play hurry ups and multiball. Time will tell...

But I do find IM overrated.. and I'm pretty shocked to see another run of it honestly. Is stern killing the golden goose?

Love the music when Sea of Simulation starts....

That's pretty much it in a nutshell... beyond that are the people are the ones who fuel the drama-engine.

Most people had a lot of positive to say about the title at ReplayFX and I think it impressed people more than they thought...

But as much as we all harp for original themes... and say themes don't make/break a game... I think the theme here and lack of attachment for most people is hurting this game.. along with the idea of a new company, new ideas, etc.

You need to do some research... History is not bound by pinside accounts...

Stern typically has a newer game at Expo... so if its GoT or something else... who knows.. but I expect a new Stern for Expo dates, and it better not be Kiss

At this rate no way Hobbit is at volume by that date.. best hope seems to be aiming for production starting by then.

Not necessarily. In young companies especially, taking more investors can be about growth. You don't have the capital reserves to do the expansion you think you need. But the reason I don't think that applies at jjp- is because there appears to be no pitched plan in how they will address their biggest issue... Production output. When asked how they would change when there were multiple games to build (new opportunities!) jack basically side stepped the question. The man who loves to boast... Is dead quiet on production rates and concurrency. That's all I need to see.

The 40 number was in reference to a days to ship quote from jack. Basically that they had a backlog of orders.. Vs having stock on hand

There already is another company sharing that market... That jjp would not take market share from if they are so constrained...

And let's not forget... The market leader said there wasn't a market for a game like woz before jjp...

No one is waiting on WOZ preorders anymore.

If we were talking random joe director... Ok... But these guys have virtually whatever they want based on their rep... Increased distribution costs are just dollars expected to be made back from the blockbuster they were promised. The bloated marketing budgets these days should dwarf extra stock/distribution.

When you see smoke pouring out of the house... do you wait for the flame to burn your hand before you are convinced there is a fire somewhere?

You are making up artificial standards as the only thing that matters so you can conveniently ignore everything else. You quickly seem to forget the LAST round of investment.. what did that actually add.. why they needed a SECOND round as well? There is a reason they won't tell you exactly what the new money will add... and you can keep ignoring realities like

- they supposedly have all this demand.. but won't ramp up production to match it
- they have documented credit issues
- we have cited vendor payment issues
- we have a company that has operated for years with very few income streams
- we have products that have been years late - this does not come for free!!

All of these things are undeniable examples of things that put pressure on financials and are signs of smoke in terms of sustainability. If there were no financial strains, most of the above wouldn't happen, and the founder would not have had to take on investors like he so adamently believed he wouldn't. The reason to change your mind is because you NEED them. If he had all the financial resources he needed w/o them.. he wouldn't NEED investors.

Sometimes this forum sounds like the 'Earth is flat society' -- they just don't want to believe what is in front of them.

he has said more. He has boasted about how complete it is, and made inferences that it would launch very quickly.. and not suffer the same kind of long delays between reveal and shipment the other games have. But this is all about the staging Jack has done... hes not saying specifics because he doesn't want to get burned again.. but he can't help but promote just how great 'the next thing is..'

At replay he made it sound that that Pat's reveal *could* happen at expo... but inferred if Hobbit were late it might not be the right time to do so. Since Hobbit is sliding more and more past Sept and Oct... I'd wager they won't launch Pat's game at Expo.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pat is trying to deliver a turn-key game to JJP.. instead of delivering a DESIGN that then must be filled out, engineered, programmed, etc. The way Jack talks... I think its going to be more of that kind of relationship and that would support why he is so confident when he talks about the game's current state and how quickly it will happen after hobbit.