(Topic ID: 77386)

Hobbit Update


By B9

6 years ago



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There are 10044 posts in this topic. You are on page 165 of 201.
#8201 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

...It is not vaporware. It might be taking longer than it should, but that does not mean they are going under. There are way too many other variables. Variables that we simply do not have visibility to.

I know of at least two times I have seen almost this exact quote in the recent past.

#8202 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

Adding a second line is demand dependent. I wouldn't commit one way or another until I understood exactly what the demand is for TH AND what remaining demand there is for WoZ. Until the machine is ready from a parts and design perspective, I would keep my options open as well. So "maybe" could also mean "it depends". This depends on the numbers. While they may have the majority of that information, they simply don't have to make the call yet. To me that is smart business. This probably is their "plan". Plans have multiple paths based on facts.

Jack is on record saying that WOZ is still selling and that they will make them through 2017. Jack is also on record saying they will make 2,500 Hobbits, with 1,500 already being pre-sold. Having all this info and no set plan is a terrible way to run a production line.

I can't imagine anyone who has pre-ordered is expecting their machine in 2015.

I hope they get it all figured out. I want a Hobbit machine.

#8203 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

Adding a second line is demand dependent. I wouldn't commit one way or another until I understood exactly what the demand is for TH AND what remaining demand there is for WoZ. Until the machine is ready from a parts and design perspective, I would keep my options open as well. So "maybe" could also mean "it depends". This depends on the numbers. While they may have the majority of that information, they simply don't have to make the call yet. To me that is smart business. This probably is their "plan". Plans have multiple paths based on facts.

We know demand is at least 1000+ machines so unless demand for WOZ falls to near 0, a second line would seem more than warranted. The part of the "plan" you are ignoring is the cash flow surplus and shortfall caused by the pre-order model... This is not "smart business" by any stretch of the term. It's a lot more like gambling with your customer's money ala Jon Corzine (MF Global).

-5
#8204 4 years ago
Quoted from SadSack:

We know demand is at least 1000+ machines so unless demand for WOZ falls to near 0, a second line would seem more than warranted. The part of the "plan" you are ignoring is the cash flow surplus and shortfall caused by the pre-order model... This is not "smart business" by any stretch of the term. It's a lot more like gambling with your customer's money ala Jon Corzine (MF Global).

Show me the balance sheet. Show me the cash flow statements. And the only one who as the exact forecast numbers for demand is JJP. So many experts on these boards....

sigh.

#8205 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

Show me the balance sheet. Show me the cash flow statements. And the only one who as the exact forecast numbers for demand is JJP. So many experts on these boards....
sigh.

You sound like a very effective executive. "Ignore the obvious so we can move forward in optimism."

Maybe you are just reminiscing about McMahon and "the fridge".

#8206 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

Show me the balance sheet. Show me the cash flow statements. And the only one who as the exact forecast numbers for demand is JJP. So many experts on these boards....
sigh.

http://www.pinballnews.com/news/jerseyjack8.html

If money weren't an issue, these investors wouldn't exist.

No business owner willfully gives up their profits to someone else.

Here's something interesting: http://www.pinballnews.com/news/jjp-investors.html

January 14, 2014, an investor was brought in.

Thats 2 different investment groups within a 20 month period.

#8207 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

This probably is their "plan". Plans have multiple paths based on facts.

They have a plan? That genuinely seems like news. And "facts", that's just so rich at this point...

#8208 4 years ago

Now with GOT officially announced. What will be the impact of this on JJP and Hobbit sales. Seems like a race to get the game out at this point. Of course, still no details on display for Stern at this time.

#8209 4 years ago
Quoted from ezeltmann:

Now with GOT officially announced. What will be the impact of this on JJP and Hobbit sales. Seems like a race to get the game out at this point. Of course, still no details on display for Stern at this time.

Yeah I would expect people to bail on TH and go buy GOT as this has been a title people have been waiting for.

Quoted from Trekkie1978:

Jack is on record saying that

Jack is on the record of saying a lot of things! I am in for TH and like what Jack has done but I don't believe anything Jack says!

-2
#8210 4 years ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

No business owner willfully gives up their profits to someone else.

huh? Ever heard of the stock market? Ever heard of a company going public? Ever heard of a private company getting partners so he can grow and not take 100% of the risk on him or herself?

unreal...

18
#8211 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

Show me the balance sheet. Show me the cash flow statements. And the only one who as the exact forecast numbers for demand is JJP. So many experts on these boards....
sigh.

You don't need to see balance sheets to know JJPs financial status before the latest "investment." Talk to all of the vendors who are owed money then report back.

#8212 4 years ago
Quoted from SadSack:

You sound like a very effective executive. "Ignore the obvious so we can move forward in optimism."
Maybe you are just reminiscing about McMahon and "the fridge".

I own my own business. So does that make me a bad executive?

I guess I can relate to some of the challenges JJP is facing.

I will be the first to calm this thread down. So sorry if I came across harsh here folks. Running your own business is very difficult. I just am seeing a ton of assumptions. I am not saying Jack is the best at everything. He has many shortfalls like we all do. I just don't want to see him fail and all of these assumptions about his books makes me cringe. And the fact that he has investors does not mean the business model is going to fail. In fact to me it quite the opposite. It means another individual with money had a close look at his books and has decided to invest in JJP. To me that is a very positive move. For some reason, it seems to be looked at that JJP is failing. I just don't get it.

If JJP fails, it is bad for pinball. I agree with the other post that GOT will push JJP even more. Competition is good folks.

#8213 4 years ago
Quoted from ezeltmann:

Now with GOT officially announced. What will be the impact of this on JJP and Hobbit sales. Seems like a race to get the game out at this point. Of course, still no details on display for Stern at this time.

GoT would have a bigger negative impact on Hobbit sales if it came with an LCD. From what I've heard, GoT will not have an LCD. I'm sure the majority of Hobbit buyers want that big LCD that it comes with. Still, I'm sure that some will bail as they are tired of waiting several years for their Hobbit, and now they can get a similar type theme from Stern in the next month or two.

#8214 4 years ago
Quoted from RobT:

GoT would have a bigger negative impact on Hobbit sales if it came with an LCD. From what I've hear, GoT will not have an LCD. I'm sure the majority of Hobbit buyers want that big LCD that it comes with. Still, I'm sure that some will bail as they are tired of waiting several years for their Hobbit, and now they can get a similar type theme from Stern in the next month or two.

Several years? going on 4......

#8215 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

I own my own business. So does that make me a bad executive?
I guess I can relate to some of the challenges JJP is facing.
I will be the first to calm this thread down. So sorry if I came across harsh here folks. Running your own business is very difficult. I just am seeing a ton of assumptions. I am not saying Jack is the best at everything. He has many shortfalls like we all do. I just don't want to see him fail and all of these assumptions about his books makes me cringe. And the fact that he has investors does not mean the business model is going to fail. In fact to me it quite the opposite. It means another individual with money had a close look at his books and has decided to invest in JJP. To me that is a very positive move. For some reason, it seems to be looked at that JJP is failing. I just don't get it.
If JJP fails, it is bad for pinball. I agree with the other post that GOT will push JJP even more. Competition is good folks.

There's so much you don't know and your assumptions above are not better than the people you complain about. So, until you see the books, talk to vendors, examine his credit rating, talk to the lawyers defending him in the Elaut suit and most importantly talk to the first investor that was wiped clean from the jjp site you shouldn't complain about people making assumptions unless you enjoy being hypocritical.

#8216 4 years ago
Quoted from chessiv:

You don't need to see balance sheets to know JJPs financial status before the latest "investment." Talk to all of the vendors who are owed money then report back.

Or just look at the Paydex rating that was posted a little while ago.

#8217 4 years ago
Quoted from aztarac:

Several years? going on 4......

I think hobbit wil soon released after GOT.
So the wait is over.

#8218 4 years ago
Quoted from iamabearsfan:

Show me the balance sheet. Show me the cash flow statements. And the only one who as the exact forecast numbers for demand is JJP. So many experts on these boards....
sigh.

When you see smoke pouring out of the house... do you wait for the flame to burn your hand before you are convinced there is a fire somewhere?

You are making up artificial standards as the only thing that matters so you can conveniently ignore everything else. You quickly seem to forget the LAST round of investment.. what did that actually add.. why they needed a SECOND round as well? There is a reason they won't tell you exactly what the new money will add... and you can keep ignoring realities like

- they supposedly have all this demand.. but won't ramp up production to match it
- they have documented credit issues
- we have cited vendor payment issues
- we have a company that has operated for years with very few income streams
- we have products that have been years late - this does not come for free!!

All of these things are undeniable examples of things that put pressure on financials and are signs of smoke in terms of sustainability. If there were no financial strains, most of the above wouldn't happen, and the founder would not have had to take on investors like he so adamently believed he wouldn't. The reason to change your mind is because you NEED them. If he had all the financial resources he needed w/o them.. he wouldn't NEED investors.

Sometimes this forum sounds like the 'Earth is flat society' -- they just don't want to believe what is in front of them.

#8219 4 years ago
Quoted from flynnibus:

When you see smoke pouring out of the house... do you wait for the flame to burn your hand before you are convinced there is a fire somewhere?
You are making up artificial standards as the only thing that matters so you can conveniently ignore everything else. You quickly seem to forget the LAST round of investment.. what did that actually add.. why they needed a SECOND round as well? There is a reason they won't tell you exactly what the new money will add... and you can keep ignoring realities like
- they supposedly have all this demand.. but won't ramp up production to match it
- they have documented credit issues
- we have cited vendor payment issues
- we have a company that has operated for years with very few income streams
- we have products that have been years late - this does not come for free!!
All of these things are undeniable examples of things that put pressure on financials and are signs of smoke in terms of sustainability. If there were no financial strains, most of the above wouldn't happen, and the founder would not have had to take on investors like he so adamently believed he wouldn't. The reason to change your mind is because you NEED them. If he had all the financial resources he needed w/o them.. he wouldn't NEED investors.
Sometimes this forum sounds like the 'Earth is flat society' -- they just don't want to believe what is in front of them.

My sources say the vendors are now paid and large orders have been placed - so the new money is certainly a good thing. I cut JJP a little slack because the pre-order model completely imploded in the last year...kudos to them for finding new investors. I am much more confident that everyone will get their Hobbit now - hopefully sooner rather than later.

#8220 4 years ago
Quoted from pinballwil:

I think hobbit wil soon released after GOT.
So the wait is over.

Lol. Over?

Neither has shipped.

The wait has just begun.

#8221 4 years ago
Quoted from Damonator:

I cut JJP a little slack because the pre-order model completely imploded in the last year...

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the pre-order pinball model start with JJP?

#8222 4 years ago
Quoted from Damonator:

My sources say the vendors are now paid and large orders have been placed - so the new money is certainly a good thing. I cut JJP a little slack because the pre-order model completely imploded in the last year...kudos to them for finding new investors. I am much more confident that everyone will get their Hobbit now - hopefully sooner rather than later.

What does it mean when a business practicing the pre-pay model is under a cash crunch before the first machine rolls off the line? The first thousand machines are paid for and there isn't money to pay vendors? Just think about that for a moment and realize how bad things really must be in Joisey.

#8223 4 years ago
Quoted from Purpledrilmonkey:

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the pre-order model start with JJP?

They did - and then JPop/SkitB destroyed it. So basically there is no pre-order money to be collected for JJP game 3. That money was probably needed to get Hobbit production going in full force. Since that didn't happen, investment money was necessary...my kudos were for being able to get out of the pre-order model and survive.

#8224 4 years ago
Quoted from SadSack:

What does it mean when a business practicing the pre-pay model is under a cash crunch before the first machine rolls off the line? The first thousand machines are paid for and there isn't money to pay vendors? Just think about that for a moment and realize how bad things really must be in Joisey.

It means that the pre-pay model died before Hobbit production started.

WOZ prepay money funded R&D and startup costs.

Hobbit prepay money funded WOZ production and Hobbit R&D.

JJP3 prepay money would have funded Hobbit production and JJP3 R&D.

So on and so forth...but they had to switch gears and abandon the pre-pay model...which is where the investment money comes in.

I'm sure the original plan was to have successful enough runs of 2000+ units per game and eventually wean off of the pre-pay model in the long run but that didn't happen.

-2
#8225 4 years ago
Quoted from ezeltmann:

Now with GOT officially announced. What will be the impact of this on JJP and Hobbit sales. Seems like a race to get the game out at this point. Of course, still no details on display for Stern at this time.

It's going to take more then the GOT theme alone to make people switch.

1. Story based reset: It must have this
2. Uses original character and character audio from show.
3. Offer a few cool interactive toys / features. The biggest complaint about The Hobbit has been the lack of interactive toys in the game.

If Stern can do those things above I'm sure they will sway some peoples decision. Unfortunately The Hobbit films themselves didn't turn out as well as everyone hoped they would. Game of Thrones on the other hand is along the lines of LOTR in terms of popularity and quality.

While JJP can make TH pinball fun nothing will change the fact that the films it's based upon didn't live up to expectations. Stern on the other hand now has a licensed theme that is extremely popular and highly reviewed. Now they must deliver with the game itself. If Stern pulls a Walking Dead with GOT then the game is crossed off my list regardless of how good the show is.

#8226 4 years ago
Quoted from SadSack:

The first thousand machines are paid for

Is this true?

People who are in on Hobbit surely are not paid in full are they?

#8227 4 years ago

There are also two words standing in the the way of GOT killing The Hobbit - Keith Johnson

#8228 4 years ago
Quoted from Purpledrilmonkey:

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the pre-order pinball model start with JJP?

No. Started much earlier than that with BBB.

#8229 4 years ago
Quoted from Damonator:

My sources say the vendors are now paid and large orders have been placed - so the new money is certainly a good thing. I cut JJP a little slack because the pre-order model completely imploded in the last year...kudos to them for finding new investors. I am much more confident that everyone will get their Hobbit now - hopefully sooner rather than later.

If that's correct big parts orders were just placed? That would mean previously promised delivery dates were complete bs?!? Say it ain't so...

#8230 4 years ago
Quoted from chessiv:

If that's correct big parts orders were just placed? That would mean previously promised delivery dates were complete bs?!? Say it ain't so...

If JJP never received the new investor is it safe to say the hobbit was doomed and refunds would have been lost?

#8231 4 years ago
Quoted from jlm33:

No. Started much earlier than that with BBB.

Good point. That was before my time - It also didn't go well if I understand. I guess JJP merely resurrected the idea then.

Us pinheads never do learn...

-1
#8232 4 years ago
Quoted from Purpledrilmonkey:

Good point. That was before my time - It also didn't go well if I understand. I guess JJP merely resurrected the idea then.
Us pinheads never do learn...

It was delayed, but it ended VERY well for the buyers. They got their machines which ballooned in value substantially. Best pre-order ever probably.

#8233 4 years ago
Quoted from thewool:

There are also two words standing in the the way of GOT killing The Hobbit - Keith Johnson

I'm afraid the Lyman F. Sheats Jr. will be fully operational when your friends arrive
palpatine_shades.jpg

#8234 4 years ago
Quoted from Skyemont:

If JJP never received the new investor is it safe to say the hobbit was doomed and refunds would have been lost?

No.

LTG : )

#8235 4 years ago
Quoted from Pimp77:

It was delayed, but it ended VERY well for the buyers. They got their machines which ballooned in value substantially. Best pre-order ever probably.

Yeah the end result +10 years of time healing has masked some pretty rocky roads during the process from what I understand. Maybe it wasn't that bad - it certainly wasn't as bad as JPOP/SkitB (so far) - but there were times it seemed almost as bad if I understand.

In any case it's off topic which I apologise for. I'm done on the topic for now

#8236 4 years ago

Does anyone know or have a reasonable guess as to how many Smaug SE's will be built vs the 1,500 LE's?

#8237 4 years ago
Quoted from pindome:

Does anyone know or have a reasonable guess as to how many Smaug SE's will be built vs the 1,500 LE's?

Everyone I know personally bailed on THLE after expo except one person who only has $500 down. At this point I would be shocked if they have paid up pre-orders left on many more than 600 games total including all the models. Either way, the numbers from JJP are meaningless as tits on a bull.

#8238 4 years ago
Quoted from pindome:

Does anyone know or have a reasonable guess as to how many Smaug SE's will be built vs the 1,500 LE's?

Maybe 750 to 1000? Less than the LE for sure.

#8239 4 years ago
Quoted from Pimp77:

Maybe 750 to 1000? Less than the LE for sure.

Except for a distributor like say, oh, ... pinballsales.com (owned primarily/wholly by Jack?) could have put in an order for an arbitrarily large order of Smaug Editions, and can decide how many JJP fills.

Is that number 10K, 5K , ? Who knows. I am not aware of Jack specifically saying/promising he did not to this, so doing so would match the words of his agreement (e.g. orders before XX date can be Smaug LE's...).

Considering the WoZ LE variants, who would be surprised by this? I don't know for sure and am open to clarification by JJP/pinballsales.com, but they certainly don't owe a clarification. This should have been a known possibility from day 1 of the Smaug announcement.

#8240 4 years ago
Quoted from BC_Gambit:

Except for a distributor like say, oh, ... pinballsales.com (owned primarily/wholly by Jack?) could have put in an order for an arbitrarily large order of Smaug Editions, and can decide how many JJP fills.
Is that number 10K, 5K , ? Who knows. I am not aware of Jack specifically saying/promising he did not to this, so doing so would match the words of his agreement (e.g. orders before XX date can be Smaug LE's...).
Considering the WoZ LE variants, who would be surprised by this? I don't know for sure and am open to clarification by JJP/pinballsales.com, but they certainly don't owe a clarification. This should have been a known possibility from day 1 of the Smaug announcement.

Thats possible, but i though they said it was less than 1500? Eh, either way...a ton of both types.

#8241 4 years ago
Quoted from BC_Gambit:

Except for a distributor like say, oh, ... pinballsales.com (owned primarily/wholly by Jack?) could have put in an order for an arbitrarily large order of Smaug Editions, and can decide how many JJP fills.
Is that number 10K, 5K , ? Who knows. I am not aware of Jack specifically saying/promising he did not to this, so doing so would match the words of his agreement (e.g. orders before XX date can be Smaug LE's...).
Considering the WoZ LE variants, who would be surprised by this? I don't know for sure and am open to clarification by JJP/pinballsales.com, but they certainly don't owe a clarification. This should have been a known possibility from day 1 of the Smaug announcement.

There can only be 1500 SEs, though it is likely less, and 1500 LEs

#8242 4 years ago
Quoted from Goronic:

There can only be 1500 SEs, though it is likely less, and 1500 LEs

They didn't put a limit on SEs (like they did WOZRR). The only limit on SEs was that they had to be purchased on or before 12/31/2014.

#8243 4 years ago
Quoted from John_I:

Everyone I know personally bailed on THLE after expo except one person who only has $500 down. At this point I would be shocked if they have paid up pre-orders left on many more than 600 games total including all the models. Either way, the numbers from JJP are meaningless as tits on a bull.

John you know me , I didn't bail, and I am paid in full See you at free play!

#8244 4 years ago
Quoted from Dalbok:

They didn't put a limit on SEs (like they did WOZRR). The only limit on SEs was that they had to be purchased on or before 12/31/2014.

I asked Jen if I could get a number higher than 1500 on my SE (specifically 1937 - the year the book first came out) and Jen said No because they had a limit of 1500. You could switch your LE to an SE if you converted prior to the end of 2014 and had an LE on preorder, or pre-order the SE at a higher cost.

#8245 4 years ago
Quoted from BC_Gambit:

Except for a distributor like say, oh, ... pinballsales.com (owned primarily/wholly by Jack?)

Pinballsales.com is not owned by JJP.
Where do you get these ideas from ?

#8246 4 years ago
Quoted from stretch2:

Pinballsales.com is not owned by JJP.
Where do you get these ideas from ?

Unless I have been living in crazy town, aren't both more or less owned by Jack (I have no idea about minority owners, if things have changed etc...).

But before there was Jersey Jack, there was "Jack from pinball sales.com". Jack played it ("it" being whatever the most recent Stern was at the time), and he liked it!

#8247 4 years ago
Quoted from thePLAyNone:

John you know me , I didn't bail, and I am paid in full See you at free play!

I might know you. Don't recognize the avatar?...

#8248 4 years ago
Quoted from BC_Gambit:

Unless I have been living in crazy town, aren't both more or less owned by Jack (I have no idea about minority owners, if things have changed etc...).
But before there was Jersey Jack, there was "Jack from pinball sales.com". Jack played it ("it" being whatever the most recent Stern was at the time), and he liked it!

You are not crazy. Most of us came to know Jack many years ago as the proprietor of pinballsales.com

#8249 4 years ago

Oooops, Ur right.I was thinking of Pinballs.com
Darn these are too close to call....

#8250 4 years ago
Quoted from Goronic:

There can only be 1500 SEs, though it is likely less, and 1500 LEs

Remind me again what LE stands for?

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