Quoted from xTheBlackKnightx:I have some basic questions, for consideration of owners that they should ask themself in hindsight.
Why did owners buy Stern machines, and not buy a different manufacturer?
Why did owners buy NIB machines?
What were owners expectations of what a NIB game can and cannot do?
Did owners actually read warranties?
What experience do people have with games as an operator?
What experience do people have as an a technician in maintaining games on routes or in their own home?
What experience are people aware in the development lifespan of a pinball machine is "in the wild" and what ultimately it is designed for?
Many of these questions and more should be considered before deciding to enter into this hobby.
Knowledge helps dispel many myths and dysfunctions of understanding.
The current lifecycle of a pinball "collector" is roughly 2-3 years.
Yes, it is that short.
You are waaaay over thinking this. It's pinball, not the stock market.
People buy Stern because stern has been making absolutely stellar titles in recent years. Some people don't like Stern - that's their choice and they have the freedom to buy/play what they want. Plenty of these buyers can afford to buy NIB - whether it fits in your value system or wallet. Some Stern buyers like to buy NIB because they want to. They aren't just "Stern fanboys who do not know how to change a fuse, only buy games NIB, and have no concept of the industry." (As you stated on your pinside page). Believe it or not, there are buyers that want recently released games in their home. They like them, they like their modern rule sets, they like the themes. Amazingly, many of these buyers also buy older DMDs and classics... Which they love playing. Some of these buyers buy HEP because they value his work and don't mind paying for it.
Also, tons of collectors - new and old - know how to work on their own games and love working on their games.
Plenty of new collectors that have entered the game in the 5 years or so are astutely aware of modern pricing and trends. They understand the market and are still willing to be collectors in it. Many of these collectors love learning and their understanding of the market can be just as sharp as collectors of 10+ yrs.
You absolutely do not to be an operator, former operator, or technician to enter this hobby. If you weren't any of those, your value as a collector, player, or pinball enthusiasts isn't any less than someone that has been an op or tech. In fact, in some cases, ops are so dysfunctional and lacking in their desire and/or interest in keeping a game clean and playing, that games are literally junked and trashed at their locations. There are some ops that know far less about keeping a game operating than many typical collectors.
This notion that the average life span of a pinball collector is 2-3 years is completely unfounded. A statement like that needs some numbers behind it. Not just some stories from resellers that are applied to the greater collecting community at large.