I'm going to chime back in on this thread and say that MOST pins are a good value if you don't fall victim to FOMO, live in a pinball dense area, and you have the cash to spare. I have now rotated over 30 pins through my basement and the most expensive pin out of that bunch cost me $800. I've had Medieval Madness, Twilight Zone, newer Sterns, and a handful of games ranging down to an E.M. These games were all great bang for the buck pins because aside from putting in some elbow grease (which I enjoyed), I didn't overpay, and after making the games nicer than I got them sold or traded for more than I had in them. You can buy just about any pin out there today, play the crud out of it for 6 months, and then sell it for what you paid for it if not more. You will do even better if you put your game up as "trades preferred" and just take the best offer you get. The best value in pinball right now is that temporary trade with your pinball buddy. I usually do one temporary trade of 6 months or so with a buddy every year. I experienced a Metallica and AIQ LE this way while my buddy experienced STTNG and Twilight Zone.
My only big losses were due to dishonest traders and sellers, who I have a personal blacklist on. So far this has been limited to 2 people.
I have succumbed to FOMO twice, with a NIB Rick and Morty purchase (which has turned out to be a fantastic value as its increased in value 50%) and a NIB GZ premium which I paid over MSRP for due to current supply chain issues. In the future I will primarily be a used buyer/trader.
Pinball is an amazing hobby. I know of no other hobby where you can buy something, use it, and then sell it for about what you paid for it so easily.
You will do much better in this hobby if you buy the pin that is a good deal instead of the pin that is hot at the moment. Buy a pin, play a pin, sell a pin, repeat. If you follow this logic and clean up your games well, you can have a new (to you) pin in your basement every month for free.
Also, the data needs to be rerun as it uses pre-COVID prices, but this old thread is one of the best things on pinside and applies nerd math problems to the question.
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/statistical-bang-for-your-buck#post-6289526
I have copied the graphic from that thread. Credit goes to lpeters82 for the amazing graphic. See above thread for explanation.
bb.pdf
Edit: Spoiler, mathematically it is Firepower, Taxi, and Dracula.