(Topic ID: 219256)

Get those LEDs ordered! Tariff inbound

By mjalexan

5 years ago


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  • 66 posts
  • 37 Pinsiders participating
  • Latest reply 5 years ago by Brijam
  • Topic is favorited by 2 Pinsiders

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    #38 5 years ago
    Quoted from Scorch:

    Well, hopefully this will bring lots of jobs back to america.... but at the cost of lower srtandard of living as prices will go up, and lower corporate earnings as companies can't exploit cheap foreign labor, and tariffs show up on our exports. In the long run, I hope to see this result in the equalizing of the classes.... though when the cost of goods goes through the roof almost overnight, I have a feeling Trumps base may turn on him.

    Scorch how are tariffs on Chinese imports going to bring back jobs? Won't people do what barakandl said he'd do -- just buy parts from somewhere else?

    I'm having trouble connecting the dots on how tariffs on Chinese imports will result in class equalization, could you explain?

    #47 5 years ago
    Quoted from Allibaster:

    Part of the reason Chinese goods are so cheap is due to labor exploitation and almost non-existant environmental regulations. American made products are more expensive due to higher priced labor and heavy regulations. The tariffs allow American products to be more cost competitive, which creates demand and generates more jobs.

    Yeah, no. You're being quite simplistic... and rather biased. The situation is far more complex.

    For one thing, we don't even have the ability manufacture a lot of these goods. LED panels for example. Take Vizio, a US-based company, production has always been in Taiwan or China. They're simply not made here.

    So let's say we jack the tariffs up so high that we can afford to spin up plants in the USA. Great, we are now paying 10x for goods produced locally. Think about the collateral damage and the end results. Businesses that rely on imported steel, install solar roofs, sell electronics will have to raise their prices. Those costs get passed straight to the consumer, and if the consumer can't or won't pay the higher cost, production drops and jobs are lost. Oh yeah, this impacts retail consumers too. Do you really want to pay $3,000 for your next phone?

    You state that "American made products are more expensive due to higher priced labor and heavy regulations" which is very narrow. Of course it costs much more to live in the USA so we have to pay people more. But we're certainly overturning those regulations that keep our air and water clean, though! Soon we'll be able to compete with China and enjoy the same smog levels as Beijing, where the last time I visited the AQI was /literally/ off the chart at 999+, where 300 is the maximum bad.

    The reality is much more complex. CEO's absurdly high salaries, American corporate waste (the insanely high cost of advertising, for example), and ever-increasing healthcare costs are at least as much of a factor why we can't compete with a Chinese LED panel.

    Another thing to consider: what do we really gain from making LED panels in the USA? Oh yeah, the government would gain. That's where the tariff money would go. Not a particularly free market move, though.

    In addition we'd gain a few jobs, but not many. Making LED panels is a heavily automated process.

    A similar set of stupid is behind the effort to reignite coal. Coal is more expensive than solar or wind, and it also spews radioactivity and toxic fumes in the air and is very dangerous to mine. The industry should be allowed to die, because it doesn't make any sense any more. What's next, whaling for oil?

    My last point for now, China and everyone else we hit with tariffs will just impose them on us. We're still a massive, massive exporter. More jobs lost.

    I've not even scratched the surface. Trade wars benefit nobody.

    Policies of this board prohibit me from discussing the real reasons behind these tariffs, but they should be glaringly obvious.

    Quoted from Allibaster:

    Like others have said, other countries also export cheap products, but they're generally not close to the mass quantity that China exports.

    Others including me, yeah. And I think you vastly underestimate the capacity of Thailand, Taiwan, India, Costa Rica, etc etc etc etc etc to produce cheap high quality goods.

    -3
    #49 5 years ago
    Quoted from Scorch:

    brijam ... I think you're getting hung up on the LED panels.... ya... chances are we will never be making them here... so worse case scenario is that prices go up by 25% on all our LEDs, so in essence that gets passed on to the consumer and the 25% difference goes in to the government coffers.... in effect creating a luxury tax.

    Not hung up, I was just trying to keep on topic.

    But see, that's not the worst case scenario. Worst case, China gives us the finger and stops buying our stuff. Since they're effectively a dictatorship they can do that. We can't.

    Quoted from Scorch:

    I'm pretty sure though that tariffs on other items like steel, will absolutely increase domestic manufacturing. which will create new jobs.

    Based on what, exactly? Did you read this, maybe:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_United_States_steel_tariff

    Quoted from Scorch:

    Now the downside.... domestic companies will see a decrease in exports, and component prices will increase. so lower corporate profits.

    And lost jobs. And incentive for international competitors to make deals and sell things where American businesses once had the deals. It can be really hard to recover from this kind of thing.

    Quoted from Scorch:

    You say that trade wars benefit nobody... but I would disagree. There will definitely be winners and losers in a trade war, and I would think that the US will absolutely benefit (though not all segments of the population will benefit equally).

    It's widely understood (by economists and supported by data) that trade wars hurt all parties. That's why they call them wars. Feel free to provide economic data that proves otherwise.

    Here's where we can agree. I'm not okay with China dumping solar panels on us and destroying our solar industry. That shouldn't be allowed, and to my knowledge we actually reduced tariffs on Chinese solar panels recently. But... steel? Coal???? Really?

    Quoted from Scorch:

    I do agree that coal re-vitalization is about as dumb as trying to subsidize Asbestos manufacturers..... obsolete technologies should be allowed to die.
    FYI - Not a fan of our current president... yes I would have voted for Hilary (if I could vote)... but his attempt to equalize the trade deficits by imposing tariffs is something I can get behind. And maybe the inflation which will result combined with the additional income from the tariffs may just help to reduce our national debt..... (or more likely, just reduce the deficit)

    I'm 100% behind getting our trade deficit equalized. But come on, it is extraordinarily unlikely that we'll ever be able to compete internationally in the steel markets. This is just going to screw a bunch of American businesses. I'm not finding any businesses or economists who support this, except the steel industry itself of course.

    We should be signing agreements like the TPP and fostering the innovation of products that will sell internationally (Tesla, SpaceX, Boeing). We lead the world in entertainment, culture, cars (finally, again), Internet, software and technology and a few other places.

    But we have to go further. We should steal a page from China, who is investing billions into their New Silk Road, investing heavily in Africa. That's how you build a trade empire. That's how /we/ did it post WWII. China is going to /crush/ us if we don't change our ways.

    Of course I'd much rather see us balance the Federal budget than aim for balanced trade, but no chance of that with this administration.

    #60 5 years ago
    Quoted from Scorch:

    Not sure what you're saying here.... you want high tariffs on the things that can help reduce our carbon footprint? Or you think tariffs should only be used to protect american industries that you support?
    Coal though, as I already stated, should never be imported. We should be minimizing its use period. What we do use should always be sourced locally. So yes... huge tariffs on coal would benefit US. Raising the cost of steel will also help not only the once dominant US steel industry, but will also increase the use of recycled material.... so why should we encourage imports?

    Good question. I'm happy to clarify.

    We're a net exporter of coal, so I don't know what you're talking about there. Huge tariffs on coal aren't going to do squat.

    Look, tariffs have a place. I absolutely support tariffs for legitimate national security purposes, I just don't think we're in any danger whatsoever of losing our steel manufacturing base because we are one of the world's largest consumers of it.

    Steel is expensive to ship, relatively easy to produce in a home country, and the market is highly elastic.

    Wasn't our former worldwide dominance in steel due to other countries lacking the infrastructure to make enough good steel themselves? Because as far as I know there is nothing magical about American steel. And we're not going to win the steel market through innovation; it's steel.

    For those reasons, trying to restore US steel production to former export levels is foolish. That ship has sailed, mate.

    I brought up solar because I believe that's a place where tariffs have been shown to work and are a good place to focus. China has done a lot of dumping of cheap solar in our markets, and tariffs are already in place to help against that. Since solar is an industry where there is a hell of a lot of money being made with enormous growth potential and is an industry where we stand a good chance of winning because we're still the best at R&D, we need to be dominant in that industry.

    Entertainment, technology and retail goods are also places where we need to demand compliance with IP and counterfeiting. These are way, way bigger issues confronting our prosperity as a nation.

    #61 5 years ago
    Quoted from BigStiffy:

    I didn't know we had an expert in world trade here, from Portlandia no less! Looks like you even took the time to educate all us fools on coal, CEO salaries, healthcare, and air quality. I feel so enlightened!

    It takes a big man to admit that you need education. I respect that.

    Quoted from BigStiffy:

    If the sky was falling, like your rants allude to, the stock market would be a good indicator of that. At this point, my portfolio is fat and happy and the economy continues to set records. We'll see where this leads, but the people betting seem to be cautiously optimistic despite the changes to trade.

    I guess you forgot how poorly the markets reacted when the tariffs were announced, or that steel prices have already jumped 20% this year solely on the threat of tariffs. Try googling "markets react to tariffs" and see what comes up. It'll be good for your continuing education.

    Or go ask the sorghum farmers in Kansas facing a massive retaliatory tariff from China. They'll fill your ears.

    #63 5 years ago

    I found it pretty hard to find out which country produces the most capacitors. It looks like Japan, Korea and Taiwan also make a lot. I found one source that said Japan is still number one in capacitors with China being second, but prefer having more than one source for my data.

    #66 5 years ago
    Quoted from Deez:

    Oh great - politics on my favorite hobby website...Drain. Can't you guys keep this on your facebook?

    A discussion on the effects of government policy doesn't have to be about politics.

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