So I will chime in. I have not seen the story/interview but on a local radio station they mentioned a story that people are making home arcades due to the pandemic. Stern pinball states sales are up 500%.

Think about that. Sales are up 500%. So Stern does not release production numbers but I would guess conservatively that with 3-4 releases a year 5,000 machines/year is a realistic number. If sales are up 500% that means he has sales for maybe 20-25,000 games if that report is correct. That’s a HUGE demand for pinball by any manufacturer in today’s pinball world. Stern is not worried about JJP. Demand appears to be high and the pandemic has helped is what it sounds like.

Post of the week here!

My own .02, I hope he’s right. I love pinball and I’m glad Stern is doing well. Spooky recently sold out their current game. JJP has a huge hit with GNR. This is fantastic! What an awesome time to be a pinball person.

Nasty comments about something like this are much more of a reflection of the critic than the state of the industry.

This should be the response, or who cares. Not he's trying to make JJP jealous or stir up sales and hurt other companies sales. Even if that was his motive or its an out right lie. Good. Who gives a shit.

Yes! That's the point of Gary's boast. Many distributors can't get enough pins to sell right now. If he could make another 5,000 machines, Gary would sell them pretty quickly to eager distributors, who are keen to make a buck, to quench the thirst from enthusiasts wanting to buy more quality pins than are currently available NIB.

What has Stern done that Bally/Williams didn’t do 2 decades ago?

Survived

That's so great.

They haven't given up.

Damn. That's a $33 Million in revenue if you use the pro price. Assuming their markup is 50%, that's a nice chunk of profit. Glad to see the industry is doing pretty well, even if Gary is completely lying!

After calling around looking for an in stock Jurassic Park pro, it sounds like distributors won't be seeing more until November-December. Lots of them show being in stock, but when you call...they do not have any.

Profit margin isn't anywhere near 50%.

Based on what I know distribs are having a hard time getting games so I dont think he is full of shit at all.

Also you guys know we are in a pandemic all year correct?

Their manufacturing (and their suppliers) was shut down so its not hard to see this backlog happening.

Also the comments about their margin by people who know nothing about business are laughable. 50% lol...

I'm sure it's a bit of trolling JJP. Lol

But i'm also sure they have a HUGE backlog. Remember the backlog? Stern jealousy is on HIGH ALERT!! LOL

We know they sell 16k plus pins a year from the sequential serial numbers that begin Jan 1 and end Dec 31, this is per distributors. And also from Dwight and other employees alluding to the numbers.

For the mathematically challenged, that's 4k pins out the door per quarter, and that number might be higher now, 5K?

One distributor did tell me that Stern is still only running at 50% output...so that is part of the problem.

Kaneda just said his sources say 5300 machine backlog.

This is brilliant I think. I think so.

Not sure why anyone would doubt those numbers? Covid has screwed up the entire supply demand curve. Distributors that normally have 20-40 games on hand at all time have no inventory. I bet there is a 3000 machine backlog on AIQ and TMNT alone. Never mind, JP, Deadpool and Star Wars. Let’s face it Stern is on fire with their theme’s and great games. Christmas is coming and if I was a distributor, I would want to ensure I could handle the demand that’s coming.......2020........The year the rich, got really richer!

While I do not know their exact discount schedule, many B2B goods like this go out to distribution at 35-40% discount from list price. (and I suspect there is no difference in the B2C model). So the $7500 MSRP machine is really $5000 in their accounts-receivables.

The math is thinner than you think.

I am pretty sure you have no idea what this thread is about.

No, I get the OP's original discussion about how many boxes are on order, or the accuracy of what is being said/publsihed about backlog, but sprinkled throughout is the discussion about the profitability of what 5000 machines would really mean. I was adding some detail to that part of the thread. Do I think they have 5000 backlog? Who knows. COVID is affecting every company differently...

Well, I officially account for 1 of the 5,000 - waiting for my JP Premium to be produced.

Glad you're putting all the money you made off my card purchases to good use!

So when did you order it?

I bought a SW Pro 8/26. No idea when I will actually get it. I estimate December at the very earliest.

No way. Gary is reading all of PanzerFreak 's posts. He sees them and he's like..."Whoa, Panzerfreak is slobbering over GnR sales numbers. I am going to flex during this interview to show who the real King of Chicago is!"

True story. Especially if Kanaeda says it.

I ordered mine early September. Paid in full this week and supposed to go out for delivery today.

When I was shopping around, AIQ premiums were many many months out - 2021. A lot of NIB titles are hard to find without a long delay. If memory serves, TMNT and Hot Wheels were the easiest games to get quickly.

Pinball NIB sales are healthy during COVID. GNR is proof of that, distributors with now light inventory are proof of that, sterns backlog is proof of that. But don’t be too fooled, as I believe their factory and supplier factories are not running at 100% capacity because of COVID, otherwise I don’t think we’d see such a tremendous backlog.

it means is Stern has a production capacity problem and opens up an opportunity for other manufacturers.

Except that production capacity problem is shared by all manufacturers in the world.

yah that and pinball is a low margin pain in the ass business... if it wasnt there would be 25 companies doing it by now.

Bingo.

Who else would want to put up with fickle pinhead a holes?

They aren’t lining up to enter this market and the ones that do get their ass handed to them

Drop that mic

Has stern gone back to full capacity? I can see if they have a reduced capacity (say 50 games a day), that has certainly contributed to the back orders.

Assuming no covid limitations they had capacity for 115 games a day.

Wrap your minds around that 115 number

Guarantee to you subscription model coming too

They would be stupid not to

I don’t think they ever needed to bump it to 115 pre-covid, but I do know they were rocking at 75 per day most of the time.

They have not gone back to full capacity but they broke their workforce into night and day shifts, in order to produce COVID restricted numbers around the clock. But Chicago has now imposed a business curfew on non-essential businesses beginning at 10 p.m. Unfortunately for Stern, and for distributors, and for enthusiasts who cannot get a NIB (JP in particular) until well into next year, pinball hasn't been listed as an essential service. The backlog of 5,000 games is growing by the day! 7,500 by Christmas?

Stern NIB pins, rare as hen's ...

image (resized).jpeg

A very large distributor told me today that Stern is running at 50%.

About a month ago, but production was scheduled to start this week on JP Prem.

If you use the numbers from ipsnd, you get about 10k, 12k, 13k for 2017-2019.

Those are less accurate for any given year, but the accuracy goes way up over time. Like, any of those yearly numbers you could have about 70% confidence in, but 3 year aggregate is like 95%.

So using the ipsnd what numbers do you get for JJP 2017-2019

Is there some place you can find out what is scheduled for production and when? I've had JP prem on order since July and still not a clue when I'll get it.

I would say you probably should ask your distributor. When I ordered a game that was backordered he gave me a rough timeline.

You have to talk to your distributor. It depends on what commitments they specifically have from Stern regarding when and quantities for them individually.

Thanks, I did have a rough estimate when I first ordered. The last time I reached out to them at the beginning of September they told me stern had JP premium on the build schedule for October but Stern doesn't tell them how many they will build so they cant tell me when I would get it. Maybe I'll reach out again soon.

I ordered a JP premium in late June and received it in Aug. i would be a bit perturbed if i were you. Ordered from game exchange co

I ordered JP Prem Sept paid $1k deposit. Am told now February.....

puffery i tell you. PUFFERY !!!

I have reached out to Game Exch to check lead time.... problem is I have to pay sales tax from Colo......

Edit...just checked their web page..... back ordered till Q1 2021.... oh well....

Ugh - I inquired yesterday on my JP Premium order and got a "hope they shp this week, you never know with delays..."