You're right, buyers and distributors bear the brunt of misjudged sales, with forced pre-sales and usually declining values. There are only 3 options here:

1) Stern guesses low, some buyers are forced to purchase sign unseen and other buyers miss out entirely on the only full game play model, and Stern loses out on high $ game sales.

2) Stern guess high, buyers again feel they have to buy sight unseen just in case it sells out, and distributors are stuck with extra inventory because they too are forced to pre-order, and every LE loses value in the aftermarket. Patient buyers get to play the game and buy at a reduced cost.

3) Stern guesses spot on. Odds of this based on track record is 20%. Would anyone base their business on 20% accuracy?

Who likes buying a $7000+ lottery ticket with not even the chance to double the ticket price?

^^ This guy!!

Yesterday Gary said it's easy to make a premium but two weeks ago said the reason for not doing a Premium is too much effort for the sale? It can't be both (but we know it is easy). So I take the comment as Stern still trying to force-feed their LE price point to the populace even while their competition is out-doing them at the same price point.

That being said, Stern remains the only manufacturer in the world that appears to have any sort of handle on getting actual games to customers as promised. That is worth a lot.