(Topic ID: 319618)

For sale:Toy Story 4 (CE) ***($1000 off MSRP)***

By danczaz

1 year ago


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“Toy Story 4 will be going for over/under $15k on August 1st, 2023”

  • OVER 4 votes
    3%
  • UNDER 129 votes
    91%
  • I got a Woody 9 votes
    6%

(142 votes)

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#51 1 year ago

We just played it at Asbury Park. It's an OK game. I can never fully appreciate a game until I have 1 in my gameroom, set up properly and can actually HEAR it.

That being said, no way is the LE a $12,000 game. It just isn't there. I think even $9k is pushing it. These games went up in price too far too fast.

My wife is a Disney nut. She wants one just on theme alone. But there is no way I would ever spend $12k on one for her. If and when the LE drops closer to 9k, then I would consider getting her one.

#52 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Nobody really believes this game will maintain its value Delt.
The real question would be if we set a betting line on the over/under, what would
the number be by next August?
Throwing in a little overall market downturn adjustment I’d put the CE at $12,200 by next August.
Maybe somebody would be the bookie here, that would be fun!
The only thing that gave a JJP CE some higher value was the “limited” nature. Even though nobody cared about POTC originally and that CE was 200. They couldn’t sell through 500 Wonkas.
Then GNR at $12,500 and 500CEs. Now they are fetching $15k OBO and I love that pin.
You make 1,000 TS4CEs, a much lesser title based on the one movie, and price it at $15k?
I think it was a combination of money grab greed and arrogance that is leaving a nasty taste in folks mouths.
Was it an innocent “misread” of the market? Maybe some of that but did no one in the room speak up? I heard otherwise, the arrogance with some distros was at another level.
500 should be the max number. They didn’t “get away” with anything. Said it at the announcement, no way they sold through 1,000 CEs. NO WAY
At the end of the day THE MARKET SPEAKS

That was my point about the Beatles Diamond etc. no one cares. They weren’t selling then and they aren’t selling now. You can’t just make people pay more money just by asking. Look at Potc which are selling high now but that because of a few unique aspects.

-3
#53 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

That was my point about the Beatles Diamond etc. no one cares. They weren’t selling them and they aren’t selling still. You can’t just make people pay more money just by asking.

And the game really, really sucks too. They flushed one of, if not the best licenses that you could have ever gotten in pinball right down the toilet on that one. Shameless money grab for crap in return.

#54 1 year ago
Quoted from usandthem:

And the game really, really sucks too. They flushed one of, if not the best license that you could have ever gotten in pinball right down the toilet on that one. ...

Ooooookay.

#55 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I’m not sure that’s true.
My distro was only having to buy “confirmed orders” for the CE. Many people dropped off of his list/allotment.
Betson dropped out altogether.
Wouldn’t be surprised if just like Wonka, JJP will be sitting on some CEs for years or not build them altogether.
Remember, they aren’t built yet.

From my understanding, JJP distributors had to buy a certain number of LE games just to be able to buy CE games. I would imagine some of those distributors are sitting on a fair amount of LE games, too.

#56 1 year ago
Quoted from rai:

That was my point about the Beatles Diamond etc. no one cares. They weren’t selling then and they aren’t selling now. You can’t just make people pay more money just by asking. Look at Potc which are selling high now but that because of a few unique aspects.

It just doesn’t work does it.

POTC seems to be either a love/hate game. Some people I know say it’s the best ever, others can’t stand it.

Beatles is cool for what it is. They just overestimated what we would be willing to pay for and old re skin.

Stern is selling premiums for $9k now. People used to blow a gasket when LEs got over the $8k range. Really hard to believe that.

My last premium, an AC/DC and I think it was either $6200 or $6400. Stern was raising the price on it and it was like whoa!

It is what it is though. There will be a lot of future 5 figure boat anchors.

#57 1 year ago
Quoted from BrianBannon:

From my understanding, JJP distributors had to buy a certain number of LE games just to be able to buy CE games. I would imagine some of those distributors are sitting on a fair amount of LE games, too.

And I think that’s why Betson told them to pound sand.

Let the game stand on its own merits.

JJP really F Ed it up pricing wise and quantity this time

#58 1 year ago

Is there any way JJP decide this is such a debacle that they make less than 1,000 CEs?

Ok, we all get the obvious arguments - they’ve ordered parts, have sold through, they have the money in the bank and can/have passed the problem to distributors. Obviously, also, what were originally low-demand games (POTC, Wonka) also sat around but eventually sold; other games are still sitting around etc. Clearly, TS4 numbers are worked on anticipated sales of 1k units, there are license fees, the BOM, indirect costs etc etc

But is the TS4 situation so brutally differentiated given the pincer movement of price and missed theme - and layer in the economy - that JJP (and its benefactor) would suck this one up, restore (some?) demand in TS4 by lowering production and move onto the next theme quickly and put this behind them?

If I were framing a market, I’d put the price at 33/1 in that 2 horse race.

#59 1 year ago
Quoted from Jokerman:

Is there any way JJP decide this is such a debacle that they make less than 1,000 CEs?
Ok, we all get the obvious arguments - they’ve ordered parts, have sold through, they have the money in the bank and can/have passed the problem to distributors. Obviously, also, what were originally low-demand games (POTC, Wonka) also sat around but eventually sold; other games are still sitting around etc. Clearly, TS4 numbers are worked on anticipated sales of 1k units, there are license fees, the BOM, indirect costs etc etc
But is the TS4 situation so brutally differentiated given the pincer movement of price and missed theme - and layer in the economy - that JJP (and its benefactor) would suck this one up, restore (some?) demand in TS4 by lowering production and move onto the next theme quickly and put this behind them?
If I were framing a market, I’d put the price at 33/1 in that 2 horse race.

I say odds are high they don’t make all 1,000

They couldn’t sell 500 Wonkas at $12,500.

The price shark has been jumped and it’s game over on the current model

#60 1 year ago

Beatles fans can get a little depressed

#61 1 year ago
Quoted from usandthem:

And the game really, really sucks too. They flushed one of, if not the best licenses that you could have ever gotten in pinball right down the toilet on that one. Shameless money grab for crap in return.

The game is stylish(beatles). Besides tna, the most stylish there is.

When my game room is completed beatles is a game on my radar ofc not on diamond or plat, but a gold.

If i would go for club feel to my game room tna, beatles and gnr are by far the three first on my list.

#62 1 year ago
Quoted from Vitty:

These will sell out eventually and cost more than MSRP. They always do. Some take longer than others

I've watched You post for a long time and admired Your collection.

I don't think this game will be in Your house 12 months from now.

Putting a reminder in My Iphone now!

#63 1 year ago
Quoted from TheLaw:

Beatles fans can get a little depressed

Got that right!

#64 1 year ago
Quoted from sepins:

I've watched You post for a long time and admired Your collection.
I don't think this game will be in Your house 12 months from now.
Putting a reminder in My Iphone now!

See, this is the gentleman's way to do it. Come back in a year and claim your prize of being right.

As one of the few here to ever actually accept one of these dumb "Pinside wagers," and win, and actually collect my $100, I do find the constant barrage of "Oh yeah, well bet me!!!!" challenges to be a little tiring. I'm not sure what someone's refusal to accept a pinball forum bet says, but people really seem to think it means they've won an argument when their "bet me" offer is declined?

I think we can agree to disagree around here without dueling glove slaps, right?

#65 1 year ago

If people liked the game the MSRP price wouldn't be an issue, they'd be buying them all up and begging for more

-4
#66 1 year ago

Not going to lie… After reading this thread again I’m thinking of raising the price back to $14,500. These won’t be dropping in price any time soon. If early depositors back out so be it… someone still has to buy game at MSRP. Anyone buying at MSRP really wants this game and ain’t selling that quickly for a loss.

#67 1 year ago
Quoted from danczaz:

Not going to lie… After reading this thread again I’m thinking of raising the price back to $14,500. These won’t be dropping in price any time soon. If early depositors back out so be it… someone still has to buy game at MSRP. Anyone buying at MSRP really wants this game and ain’t selling that quickly for a loss.

I would buy it, have it delivered, keep it NIB, then sell it 10 years from now when it becomes a "hidden gem" game people are creaming their jeans over

#68 1 year ago
Quoted from danczaz:

Not going to lie… After reading this thread again I’m thinking of raising the price back to $14,500. These won’t be dropping in price any time soon. If early depositors back out so be it… someone still has to buy game at MSRP. Anyone buying at MSRP really wants this game and ain’t selling that quickly for a loss.

Ron White might have a response to You after looking at Your poll.

#69 1 year ago
Quoted from danczaz:

Not going to lie… After reading this thread again I’m thinking of raising the price back to $14,500. These won’t be dropping in price any time soon. If early depositors back out so be it… someone still has to buy game at MSRP. Anyone buying at MSRP really wants this game and ain’t selling that quickly for a loss.

But...it didn't sell after a week at your current price, so that doesn't make any sense. If people aren't lining up to buy it, I wouldn't increase the price. (If they were lining up, I wouldn't increase the price either, but that's just me.) And does the warranty transfer, or is the no-warranty thing after you open the box and then sell it?

-1
#70 1 year ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

In the history of pinball there’s never Been a “$200 toy” included in a pinball machine.
If Pinside ran a pinball company they’d be tits up in a week.

The Addams Family "Thing" mech would disagree with you.

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https://www.marcospecialties.com/pinball-parts/14-7966

Quoted from Vitty:

Hosted a pinball party last night and toy story had the biggest gravitational pull for everyone.
Too early to rate it for me. I need to put at least 500 plays on a game before rating. First 25 games or so have been quite enjoyable.

LOL. That's silly. Once you've been to a game's Wizard mode once or twice, and seen everything in a game, isn't that enough to be able to rate it?

Didn't take anywhere close to 500 plays for me to be able to do that on games like Cactus Canyon or Monster Bash. So I'm not really sure where 500 plays comes from.

#71 1 year ago
Quoted from DakotaMike:

The Addams Family "Thing" mech would disagree with you.
[quoted image]
https://www.marcospecialties.com/pinball-parts/14-7966

LOL. That's silly. Once you've been to a game's Wizard mode once or twice, and seen everything in a game, isn't that enough to be able to rate it?
Didn't take anywhere close to 500 plays for me to be able to do that on games like Cactus Canyon or Monster Bash. So I'm not really sure where 500 plays comes from.

Right. Cause Williams was paying $329 for thing mechs in Addams family. About 20 percent of the cost of the entire retail price of the game.

Clearly I’ve been owned.

#72 1 year ago
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#73 1 year ago
Quoted from beelzeboob:

But...it didn't sell after a week at your current price, so that doesn't make any sense. If people aren't lining up to buy it, I wouldn't increase the price. (If they were lining up, I wouldn't increase the price either, but that's just me.) And does the warranty transfer, or is the no-warranty thing after you open the box and then sell it?

yes, obviously too expensive so he wants to raise the price?

#74 1 year ago
Quoted from DakotaMike:

The Addams Family "Thing" mech would disagree with you… $329 ….

You can’t compare the aftermarket price of a part ….

Williams made 20,000 of those. Probably cost them like $25 at the time.

If you built an Addams Family from scratch using Marco parts at retail, it would probably cost you $80,000 bucks to build it.

ADD: A car story just for Levi - I recall in the 80s people were complaining about Holden (GM) spare part prices in Australia. A new car was like $30,000 at the time, a mechanic worked out if he bought all the parts from Holden it was like $250,000 to build one from scratch. Something like that.

rd

#75 1 year ago
Quoted from rotordave:

You can’t compare the aftermarket price of a part ….
Williams made 20,000 of those. Probably cost them like $25 at the time.
If you built an Addams Family from scratch using Marco parts at retail, it would probably cost you $80,000 bucks to build it.
rd

This is what I have to deal with around here!!!

#76 1 year ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

This is what I have to deal with around here!!!

It’s like the guys who justify buying an LE over a premium … “it’s got $300 worth of powdercoat!”

Ahhhh no - the shiny colour probably cost them $20 more than the standard flat black they do.

rd

#77 1 year ago
Quoted from DakotaMike:

The Addams Family "Thing" mech would disagree with you.

You just posted 2022 retail prices of to cite 1992 wholesale prices?

#78 1 year ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

Right. Cause Williams was paying $329 for thing mechs in Addams family. About 20 percent of the cost of the entire retail price of the game.
Clearly I’ve been owned.

Quoted from rotordave:

You can’t compare the aftermarket price of a part ….
Williams made 20,000 of those. Probably cost them like $25 at the time.
If you built an Addams Family from scratch using Marco parts at retail, it would probably cost you $80,000 bucks to build it.
ADD: A car story just for Levi - I recall in the 80s people were complaining about Holden (GM) spare part prices in Australia. A new car was like $30,000 at the time, a mechanic worked out if he bought all the parts from Holden it was like $250,000 to build one from scratch. Something like that.
rd

Quoted from flynnibus:

You just posted 2022 retail prices of to cite 1992 wholesale prices?

Wow, you are some really smart guys. I was just joking around; it's not like I don't understand inflation, or that manufacturers can get things for much cheaper wholesale.

--but for fun, lets try to break the cost down a little, since we're being serious and all--

So that $330 dollar after-market "Thing" motor is just the motor right. Adjusted for inflation, that's about $150 in 1992 prices.

But that doesn't include the actual molded hand itself, the magnet, the under-pf metal housing/cover and subway system that feeds to the swamp, the various mounting brackets, the attached Opto-PCB and connectors, the various bits of hardware and wiring, and the lift-top box the hand hides in. Plus, you probably need to include the kickout-saucer and switch, since the mech needs it to actually function and be able to grab the ball. Also, while Williams certainly got wholesale prices, they didn't order the parts for all 20,000 "Things" at once. There would have been multiple orders, or order increases, based on how successful the run was.

Given all of that, I don't think it's completely laughable that the true total cost of the "Thing" toy was nearing $200. Maybe not, maybe I'm dumb or crazy, but I don't think anyone around here can actually say with any accuracy how much it really cost WMS to make. I mean, the "Thing" hand is one of the star features of the game, so I wouldn't be shocked if there was a lot of BOM cost put into it. It's certainly the "Wow!" mech of the game the first time someone plays it.

But regardless of how much "Thing" cost WMS way back when, if any of the current pinball companies were to do a TAF remake today, then I think it's easily a $200 toy. Given today's prices and the volumes that our current manufacturers produce at.

#79 1 year ago
Quoted from DakotaMike:

So that $330 dollar after-market "Thing" motor is just the motor right. Adjusted for inflation, that's about $150 in 1992 prices.

Why do you think Marco's pricing of a reproduction of that item has any relation to the original cost WMS spent to get them manufactured in bulk BITD?

10
#80 1 year ago

You don’t get to say you are joking and then write a lengthy word salad explaining why you weren’t joking.

That’s not how it works !!!

#81 1 year ago
Quoted from beelzeboob:

But...it didn't sell after a week at your current price, so that doesn't make any sense. If people aren't lining up to buy it, I wouldn't increase the price. (If they were lining up, I wouldn't increase the price either, but that's just me.) And does the warranty transfer, or is the no-warranty thing after you open the box and then sell it?

It's huberus or ego preservation. Hasn't sold for his asking price or below, so now pull the ultra-WTF strategy of jacking the price up to almost challenge someone to "pay more unless you're too broke and can't afford it" and show ALL of us how wrong we were.

Or wait 3 years like what happened with JJP-POTC and watch people with too much money and not enough sense pay $30K for a pinball machine.

#82 1 year ago

I WANT CANDY!

#83 1 year ago
Quoted from danczaz:

Not going to lie… After reading this thread again I’m thinking of raising the price back to $14,500. These won’t be dropping in price any time soon. If early depositors back out so be it… someone still has to buy game at MSRP. Anyone buying at MSRP really wants this game and ain’t selling that quickly for a loss.

It looks like you're stuck with the game for now unless you drop the price lower, you wont sell it anytime soon if you raise the price. It appears that nobody on Pinside wants the game right now except for original preorder buyers. There're 4 CEs on the market for 14k and 2 of them are obo, but nobody is buying at the discounted prices and how many more are going to hit the market before production in the fall when full payments are due.

#84 1 year ago
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#85 1 year ago

The game will level out at 10 or 11k. That's just the way it is with this one.

#86 1 year ago
Quoted from rotordave:

It’s like the guys who justify buying an LE over a premium … “it’s got $300 worth of powdercoat!”
Ahhhh no - the shiny colour probably cost them $20 more than the standard flat black they do.
rd

I bought the LEs for the “investment” RD. Worked out well!!!

Well not really why but it does look good now

10
#87 1 year ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

Right. Cause Williams was paying $329 for thing mechs in Addams family. About 20 percent of the cost of the entire retail price of the game.
Clearly I’ve been owned.

Word was that Stern’s POTC sinking ship added $300 to the BOM, and Gary wanted it out. Nordman fought for it to stay, and it became one of their biggest hits due to the awesomeness of that one toy.

#88 1 year ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

In the history of pinball there’s never Been a “$200 toy” included in a pinball machine.
If Pinside ran a pinball company they’d be tits up in a week.

A $200 tits up playfield toy. Brilliant!

#89 1 year ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

You don’t get to say you are joking and then write a lengthy word salad explaining why you weren’t joking.
That’s not how it works !!!

I was just breaking it down for you Levi! Give you something to read on the john.

#90 1 year ago

Literally came home yesterday and kids were watching TS4 and it was right when they go into the pinball and meet Duke Caboom

#91 1 year ago
Quoted from danczaz:

Literally came home yesterday and kids were watching TS4 and it was right when they go into the pinball and meet Duke Caboom

That’s a sign that you should keep it.

#92 1 year ago
Quoted from sepins:

I've watched You post for a long time and admired Your collection.
I don't think this game will be in Your house 12 months from now.
Putting a reminder in My Iphone now!

Thanks! Lawlor JJPs tend to have staying power in my collection. That said I don't assume any of my games will stick around forever Wonka currently enjoys the longest tenure of any game i've ever had. So far so good for TS4 though!

FWIW I voted the 'under' on the poll here, however I would change my vote to over if they cut production early! Its a stunning game in blue LE, I can only imagine the CE.

#93 1 year ago

From the launch video from JJP they said (or that’s what I got from it) that this game was targeted to more unexperienced/new players.

So I guess it works well: if you throw a pinball party and most people walk up to that game.

So indeed it will not live up to Pinside hardcore collectors standards, but I think it will eventually sell out to new people that enter the hobby. It looks like an easy fun game.

10
#94 1 year ago
Quoted from Faust:

that this game was targeted to more unexperienced/new players

Pretty expensive price tag for ‘unexperienced/new players’

#95 1 year ago

Even if it holds it value and you sell for 15k in a years time, at 10% inflation, you’re still losing.

#96 1 year ago
Quoted from 7oxford:

Even if it holds it value and you sell for 15k in a years time, at 10% inflation, you’re still losing.

Well, that’s true for the $20 bill in your drawer, car, house and everything else that inflation impacts.

It’s NOT an investment meant to keep up with inflation. Lol

#97 1 year ago
Quoted from CrazyLevi:

As one of the few here to ever actually accept one of these dumb "Pinside wagers," and win, and actually collect my $100, I do find the constant barrage of "Oh yeah, well bet me!!!!" challenges to be a little tiring.

Didn't you also lose one? I vaguely remember some dude chasing you down over the Alien game being remade. Don't think he ever got his "winnings" tho haha

-1
#98 1 year ago
Quoted from metallik:

Didn't you also lose one? I vaguely remember some dude chasing you down over the Alien game being remade. Don't think he ever got his "winnings" tho haha

No, that wasn't a bet.

That was a drunk idiot taking an obvious joke I made too seriously, to the point where it drove him insane.

I'd never welch on a bet!

#99 1 year ago

Lots of PM’s… no takers yet!

#100 1 year ago

GLWTS

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