Quoted from cooked71:Isn't there a science to working out risk? There's probably an exact price these places should sell for.
You can kind of estimate "fair value", but it requires some guess work: there's still quite a few unknowns, so there's a lot of speculation on the probability of delivery. But at current price of $9500, this suggests about 68% chance of delivery. If you think it's better, you might consider this a deal!