Quoted from MtnFrost:Just summer or plus economy? This is my thinking - economy picks up, summer ends - better sellers market
I wouldn’t count on it. Inflation is at an all time high, despite a temporary drop in gas prices, and the Fed is in an unprecedented rate hike cycle.
The Fed Funds rate is now 2.5%. They will likely raise again in September another .75 basis points on their way to 4% by year end.
Mortgage rates, auto loans etc get hammered. They need to create demand destruction to get inflation under control.
Some think and hope that they can engineer a “soft landing” for the economy. I’m hoping that as well.
Plenty of other economists and analysts think a deeper recession is coming as a result of the rate hikes.
The yield curve is inverted and the old saying “don’t fight the Fed” really hasn’t kicked in like every other time in history.
Also, the release of the Oil strategic reserves is ending in October right before the elections. Then the government has to buy back that Oil in 2023.
That’s the real risk timeframe. Big tech companies all over the world are either freezing hiring or laying off people. That will be reflected in coming jobs numbers the next few months.
Inflation and rising interest rates are an insidious disease that affects everyone.
If the S&P 500 drops to 3,300 as some think then trillions of net worth get wiped out temporarily. Or it could go to 4,900 by year end. That’s pretty much the wide range of analysts opinion. And it’s at 4,150 now. Which way do we go?
“Soft landing”? I hope so, it would be a rare occurrence but these are different times.