I think the estimated prices are based off the average sales for that game. Like all of them. So the higher priced sales will have to happen for longer in order for the estimated prices to catch up.

As stated above, takes some time for these new bonkers prices to average up the estimated price. Market is rising too fast

I would not put much faith in the estimated prices. Look at active ads and archived ads to get a more accurate sense of what a particular game is selling for.

The algorithm here at pinside for estimated prices is radically out of touch with the actual pinball market.

Pinside has a great service, but when Addams Family goes from 6k (auction) to 15,995 (The pinball company) in three months, there is no way for the algorithm at Pinside to correctly evaluate current pricing using ANY historical data. It's not about how often to update the algorithm, it's time to reset and not use historical pricing at all.

So how are you to figure out what market value is on your pinball, or a pinball you want to purchase?

The pinball market at Christmas went through an incredible price increase. It's hard to say day by day what 'market value' is.

Pawn shops price things by looking up what the item has recently sold for on Ebay... Not the asking price, the completed items price.

I'd say to not look at pinside's estimated pricing until what you see on pinside starts matching what things are selling for at auction reports, ebay pricing, and retail pricing on the internet.

Start over with your understanding of pinball pricing, only evaluate pricing with very recent actual sales, or, worst case, what someone is offering the pin for right now.

And hold on to your wallet if you are buying.

This is nothing new, it's always been like this.

People quoting "pinside estimated prices" when they try to beat me up on price gets laughed off just like in 2005 when someone started waving a Mr. Pinball Price Guide book in my face.

The estimates are a point of interest to noobs just entering the market, and may help determine relative value between machines, but anybody doing research on actual asking / selling prices will get up to speed quickly realize they aren't "worth" much.

I can't disagree more.. I've never paid much more than the average price of the last 4-5 sales of the same game I'm buying. When I've paid significantly more its was when the game was in superior condition. If your patience and polite you will eventual find a game for a fair price. Prices have gone up and it seems like they are gonna continue going up for the foreseeable future but that does not mean that every game that for sale is listed at a fair price. And there are definitely people over paying.

Username checks out

Are they based off of reported sales prices? Because people rarely reveal what their game actually sold for, if they even report that their game sold here at all. There must be a super robust marketplace somewhere where all these games are selling. Not to mention all the people who decide to keep their games after listing them for a day . But my guess would be that only games that sell for a reported price can move the needle and people rarely say what the final price was.

Nice humble brag with that 2005 story.

People need to know how right you were 17 years ago.