I think
Quoted from Pinballomatic:A guess for total sales at 550 is not realistic at this point. The criticism of Hobbit has been heavy from the start and in some cases justified, but at this point the only thing that will probably be true in the end when it comes to Hobbit is that it will not surpass WOZ in terms of overall sales. Of course it could do so, but tracking the numbers and keeping in mind that WOZ has an additional small run in progress at the moment, it seems most unlikely. That said, Dialed In, which as you are aware is being sold using a different price model and thus leaves itself open to the haters chanting "it's only a small refundable deposit", has generated so many orders despite appearing at one show and on one Buffalo Pinball program that for it to fail to sell even 1000 units at this point (barring catastrophe) is whatever the opposite of wishful thinking is known as here in the land ripe with negativity.
I think a lot of things about the game could have been much better, and hopefully some of the feedback will be taken ... particularly about some of the disjointed art and the bizarre resurrection of Red & Ted / Bob The Builder clones. Name I really don't care about. Also feel that $8k / $9k for a game which will have a far lower bill of materials than WOZ, and likely Hobbit too, and far lower man hours put into assembly, is a joke .... as is the aping of Stern's SLE with the Collector's Edition (it was obviously scrambled together at the last second, hence no details). Presentation was terrible, and what I felt was Jack meme-ing (maybe he was serious) about the 6999 edition LE went down like a lead balloon.
BUT:
Anyone who thinks they'll only sell 1000 (much less 550) units is living in cloud cuckoo land. If they can build enough by then, they could ship that many to buyers on day 1, I suspect.
BUT 2:
Had the theme been a little more polished, the launch better orchestrated, and the price designed to really hit Stern where it hurts, this could have easily been a 5000-6000 units before the end of 2017 machine. There's no way it does anything close to that now, unless they seriously reduce price. Given their new system, and much less wiring and assembly steps, their theoretical max production capacity must have taken a big jump. I suspect they're currently running at a cadence of about 3500 per annum of the much more complex, bigger widebodies, and Jack had previously said they could do ~5000 of those a year. What ever they do, they'll continue to take market share in nominal and % terms, but it feels like they missed the wide open goal that Stern have left with all their recent (and pretty appalling) actions.
Assuming they produce it for 3-4 years, I think 5000-8000 units is an achievable number (higher end depends on price being lowered at some point), perhaps more. If they'd gone after $6995 / $7800 / $8500 I'm sure it would have been the first 10,000 seller since the 90s, and got there pretty damn quickly.
But there's a significant risk of the price bubble bursting and the market collapsing, particularly with economic storm clouds gathering, and numbers being way lower. I think chasing sky high (though not Stern high) margins was a far riskier move than trying to hit production capacity and maximise revenue.