I'm pretty sure you are right. I would rather have potentially open orbits both ways, but one way isn't the end of the world. It will be like Batman in that regard...left cannot make a full orbit, but right can scream it around. Plus am I seeing correctly that the Wolverine shot is a mini-orbit that comes out the left orbit lane? That will be a fun shot and kind of makes up for losing a full orbit.

I think the Prem/LE shooter lane ramp thingy is going to end up feeling kind of like the Loki lock area in Avengers (without the locking part..). I'm not sure if I buy that as a big game changer. Either one is going to get to the right flipper...just the pro is going to play in the pops first and be more out of control coming from the orbit. Prem/LE will skip the pops and give a clean feed. That and the stand-ups in place of the drops will make the pro the harder of the two games for sure.

That Colossal jackpot shot is awesome. Has there been that tight of a turnaround since the original Black Knight? That's what it reminds me of, just without screaming back at your flippers.

I am really interested in seeing what that "Snikt! Ramp Ricochet Target" does. If it really gives a consistent ricochet up the ramp, that is going to be freaking amazing. Not sure how that would work short of a kicking target ala Haunted House (and even then!), but that's what it sounds like. We'll see I guess.

And I adore Lil' Deadpool. There...I said it.

Loving everything I see here. Hope it shoots as good as it looks, and the code does it justice. I have a good feeling it will!

I like waffles.

You left out the most important factor... VOLUME

Losing some sales to the competition is never fun... but this isn't a finite space... new products are still pushing growth. And at the end of the day, stern is crushing it in volume.

And as long as this spike platform doesn't become an anchor... a decade from now we will look back at this 5+yr period of Stern games as one of the golden ages. Tron, Metallica, StarTrek, ACDC, TWD, GOT, Maiden,... and even the games people hate on now, will be considered B or B+ titles.. the only real turd has been WWE. Think of the vault assets Stern has at their disposal now to build on demand...

The "World above the glass" & "Another movie theme" comments on the PF tell me Pinside is not a small % of Stern's business.

Nor are we good at "quoting" things

that was less muscling and more just 1 dude being a dick for the sake of being a dick.

I honestly think Stern is likely too big to be sustainable at this level. The cycle time to build more games is not because each one is selling so many. It is because their model is to keep the machine running and they have a new factory to pay down, tons of staff and lots of new hires. Even hits like Maiden dont appear to be selling like hits from just a few years ago. More games per year in order to maintain the same total sales numbers. If Maiden sales were still strong then it would have prevented DP announcement.

All the while other competitors are producing games in numbers. They may be much slower but those numbers are impacting Sterns churn of new games.

"much slower" yeah, by more than 10x. You really take a slice of something you heard.. and run with it and spread it everywhere. Yes, the factories move releases based on need (I guess The Josh Interview is fresh in your brain) but there isn't any sign of that here. DP has been in this timeslot since before Maiden was even launched. Stern has been on the record as doing 3-4 main titles a year... how do you fit 3-4 games into a year if you don't do one per quarter??

How do you think Stern is ready to show DP on stream in a week if things were so reactionary in your view?

Years ago Stern shifted to the idea that their dealers should have stock AND variety on hand to sell to the new type of buyers instead of the typical commercial model of 'the latest game'. Since then, Stern's cadence has been regular and hasn't shown any signs of parking releases to let a blockbuster own the line. Instead, they continue to intermix product, and build a variety.

The facts just don't support your view of the world.

Stern has been growing 40% YOY according to Gary Stern. Given overall its a really niche market, manufacturing in the USA, etc etc, that's pretty impressive.

That makes no sense. Why sit on a game and delay all of your development money and time. Is it better to have 1 awesome option of a game for people to buy or is it better to have 2-6 options. If someone is looking to buy a pinball machine they are going to buy a pinball machine. The more options of great games stern gives a buyer the more likely they are to hit on a theme the person wants and it greatly increases their chance of selling a game.

The market is substantially larger. Stern is selling more games then ever so other manufacturers are not really having the affect on stern that you think they are. The only thing that they have really done is show stern that they can charge a lot more and make even higher profits. So much so that they have a new factory, more employees, new coders, new designers, etc. Everything you are claiming is in direct opposition of what we are seeing at stern which is a massive growth period.

the publicly available data does not seem to mesh with that. Sure we never know actual production numbers but it sure does not appear sales are anywhere near 40% growth YOY

40 percent is not sustainable YOY.

The not another movie theme on this pin is a bummer for me, the movies are so fantastic I just cant imagine Deadpool without Ryan Reynolds. I'm not into comic books but the movies are like part of the local culture. I know people that worked on them, my son trains with guys that did stunts on them. The movie theme would have made it a must buy. It still might get my money it does look great but I am very wait and see.

Gary's cites are growth, not necessarily growth in UNITS. Stern is diversifying their revenue streams and increasing ASP of games. That means they get growth even at the same number of units sold.

Ever take note of how many more retailers of pins there are recently?
Or stern's significant expansion of their office staff?

Do you think these things project shrinking sales activity?

From the whitewood photo above, it looks like the left orbit could go all the way around on the pro. Is it certain that the ball is stopped at the top?

There was a mention of increase of staff at Stern, these are some but not all from the last year or so (sorry for those who were left out):

http://funwithbonus.com/tim-sexton-hired-by-stern-pinball/
https://www.retrorefurbs.com/brian-eddy-returns-to-pinball/
https://www.pinballnews.com/site/2018/05/29/doug-skor-joins-stern/
https://www.amusementrc.com/2017/08/14/stern-pinball-announces-the-hiring-of-zach-sharpe/
http://www.replaymag.com/erik-gilly-joins-stern/
https://funwithbonus.com/keith-elwin-announces-he-will-be-working-for-stern-pinball/

The line of thought is that revenue comes from the factory... not from development. The job of development is to feed the factory.. so if orders don't support running the factory at full steam, you shift what the factory is building... and the inverse as well, don't waste opportunity on pieces that aren't selling (which also costs inventory). So the net result of that is... order demand can alter release schedules. Don't stop building something that is going nuts (Josh mentioning Halo at Raw Thrills)... and pull the next game forward if the factory faces weak demand for the title in hand.

Stern has diffused that rigid structure by being able to effectively swap between builds and make smaller 200-250 piece runs economical. Add in a pent up demand for older games you've held in reserve... and you can switch to building existing titles instead of pulling an unfinished game forward.

It's still way more expensive and limited ability to actually build the game, vs waiting to capitalize on a design. A design can be be put on back burner.. the factory can't. Optimizing the factory building what you can take an order for is the ultimate goal. You don't want to overbuild, or have to slow the factory down... as that is your direct revenue stream. So game releases will be managed to manage factory demand.. not just 'waiting to convert development to revenue'

No. It's not that long of a wait. It can be less than a 90 day turnaround. Depends on who they use.

Especially with the impact that Alien and Predator made...

possibly the worst offenders. They took millions off the table that evaporated, ruined consumer morale, and could not be later sold to recoup for other new purchases.

Yes, you can see the gate by the truck (right curve) if you look trough the photos.

I was just going from what guys have said on music industry podcasts I listen to.

The plant in Nashville someone mentioned before quotes a minimum 4 month period from go-to-whoa - that’s still significantly less than what was discussed on the music podcast. Maybe those music guys should shop around more.

rd

The flag flying on this board is worse than ever. I'm just surprised to see that there is a contingency that is actually flying the Spooky flag now. Really? We are going to suggest that Spooky is taking a penny from Stern and making it count? Stern is churning out games because they are committing to an unsustainable business model? WTF? Seriously, WTF? Stern is churning out titles and machines because they can't keep up with their orders. That's why there is a waiting list a mile long for Iron Maiden Premiums right now. You think they won't sell a metric assload of Deadpools? Please. Stern is laughing all the way to the bank. In the time I took to write this post they made 5 machines and recorded a sizzle trailer for the Munsters. JJP and Spooky are in the weeds. fighting for the crumbs.

I cannot be bothered with reading lol

Well said sir but you can't stop the bullshit, some people believe JJP isn't a boutique outfit and that Spooky is a threat Stern is king bottom line.

And then you immediately start flying a flag...

Spooky and JJP are doing fine. Neither one is trying to operate under the same business model that Stern uses. People need to stop trying measure up the companies like it matters in any way to them. If you want a game from any of these companies, you can buy from them and know that you will get your game. None of them are fly by night companies with a shady proposition. But neither Spooky nor JJP are fighting for crumbs.

Spooky has as many orders as they can handle, and they're totally fine with being the company they are.

JJP is ramping up, and they're making good games that are selling well. Would they like to make and deliver games more quickly? Sure. Are they getting crushed? Nah.

These fanboy wars suck. Stop it.

Edit: I should mention that in the last two years I've bought 2 Sterns, 2 JJPs, and 1 Spooky machine. All were delivered.

Arguing with whysnow is a moronic exercise due to his loose grasp of facts, blatant cheerleading/hating, cherrypicking of data, etc so I don't event know why I am wading into this but here goes.

Let's ignore the gross revenues and look at net profits on the numbers that you referenced. Based upon these volumes, are these companies making much money? We know that Stern is and has much better margins on their games. The possible exception would be CGC since a lot of R&D can be reused. But with Spooky and JJP, are they being adequately profitable at the levels that they are producing games, particularly factoring in the lead time for developing and distributing games? We know that JJP has had financial troubles in the past that have required outside financing, that they have had delays due to redesigns, and actually lost money per unit sold on WOZ. Without knowing particulars but not needing to, those are potential warning signs there.

You allege to have insight into Spooky's particulars, but the question with them has been if they can achieve the scale needed. TNA has been a great boon for them as the R&D was handled outside, although I am sure that they have had to pay in some way those costs (whether a royalty per unit, flat fee, etc.) With them trying to control margins (you mentioned this yourself in another thread about keeping the cost of TNA low), and at the volume that they are creating games, but based upon their manufacturing backlog, their throughput, and the fact that they have 2 games at the same time, are they going to be able to generate enough volume to be relevant? The 700 game backlog that you mention has to be amortized based upon how quickly they can produce the games, and that gives you a better feel about profitability. The Spooky crew could be in a position where they are the right size and scale for them based upon financial status, risk profiles, etc and that if they try to grow too fast or big, that they would actually go backwards. From the outside, Charlie seems to have a good head on his shoulders and feel for this, and might be the reason he is trying to tightly manage growth.

As flynn already mentioned, Stern is focused on profitability per unit. They have that luxury because they have the ability to manufacture at scale, which other manufactures don't have that ability to Stern's level. Stern's marketshare can shrink (and to be clear, these other companies have relatively negligible impacts due to the volume that they can produce games) but they can be more profitable due to their scale.

Just remember, it is not the volume of games produced, it is the profitability per unit manufactured that matters. Having better margins and the ability to produce at scale is the key. Based upon these metrics, Stern has no real concerns about Spooky, JJP, American, etc, regardless if they go from 94% of the market to 93%, etc.

The wildcard is CGC because even though they are doing some new R&D, a majority of their's is already done. If they decided to increase volume (numbers of titles on the line and output), they are in the best position to materially impact Stern.

Can we talk about Deadpool and move fanboy wars somewhere else? I feel like I'm sitting between my cousin and his friend in the '90s while they argued over Super Nintendo and Genesis. Always the same crap. Can we just play the games?

Am I flag flying, or stating facts? It's not mutually exclusive. Is Stern selling more machines than both JJP and Spooky by a factor of 10? 20? 30? Year over year over year? Are they making 3-4 titles in the time that other companies are maybe releasing a collective .75? Am I tipping the scales by pointing out hard facts? These are businesses. Businesses make widgets and earn revenue, and profit in the end. X,Y,Z. Simple math. Is one of these 3 businesses killing it and out earning, outproducing and outpacing the others? How significantly? On a scale of 1-10. Coke blows Jones Soda into the weeds. And Jones Soda fights Reed's for the crumbs. Is that flag flying for Coke? Or is is basic math and fact?

Edit: I should point out that I have bought zero machines from any company in the past 5 years. I have traded away Sterns and B/W games for Stern titles. I love Spooky's existence and hope and wish them all the best. I might one day grab a TNA, in fact, and look forward to a day that they produce an in-house title that interests me and that I enjoy playing enough to own. Admittedly, I wouldn't piss on a JJP machine if were on fire.

It's 40% profit growth. So the next time someone wants to stick up for Stern about price increases, think about that.

Got to side with gambit3113 on this. Since Spooky, JJP, etc are not operating under the same business model as Stern, they are not going to materially impact Stern's bottom line because they do not have the scale. That is not to say that they are not carving out great businesses for them, but until they can up scale and increase per unit profitability, they will have minimum impact on Stern's day to day operations.

Try not to make this long but I try to contribute and give back to the forum where I can. My wife and I were Honored to visit and meet with the design team at Stern today for a tour and view of the New Deadpool masterpiece. To start I did Not take Any photos out of respect for their business and the amazing team behind this project. I will try to provide a few details I observed to pass time but honestly not much to say regarding should you or should you not buy. Pinball is a personal experience! I will say having owned most every Stern and other title the art package on All models from head to legs was honestly breathtaking! I will go on a limb and say this is the best art Stern has done in my opinion. The playfield art pops in person and the imagery is pure comic book perfection. No clip art here just a well laid out vibrant color as you would expect in a comic book presentation. The cabinet art looked equally amazing on all models. I have placed my order with Flippen Larry (Great guy) for an LE but I must say from art to playfield ALL versions for this title are a win with only minimal exclusions across the 3. Would be proud to own Any of the versions. (Not how I felt on SW for comparison). The toys and screened plastics were crisp and very clear art. No pixels again.
Game notes: Yes the disco ball does spin and does create a very creative and innovative attraction for modes. Games are rolling to the boxes as we watched so I suspect lucky owners will be showing unboxing videos in not time for sure! Pro is now, LE then Premium as I understand but not a fact but as I viewed finished cabinets etc appears the plan.

The Stern Team. Love or hate the big dog on the block the Stern team was professional and welcoming. They all clearly LOVE what they do each day with each game. Seeing George himself on the line helping and supporting to make sure perfection was really cool to see. Yes he's a big boss now but he still knows how to roll up his sleeves and still has the passion in his belly. Some have asked, Yes that was Georges white wood. This is His design and creation. All the work from that person (happily forgotten!) was trashed and reborn into a better quality product. This was a costly decision but Stern and George wanted to start a New path without any past crap on it. Leave it at that... From Production to receiving games are running down the line like a well oiled machine. (I do production for a living, this was impressive to see). Gary, Mark, and George were gracious hosts and Very excited to get this amazing game into the hands of the world.

The game plays smooth and no issues or clunkiness that I could see. Might add I'm a crappy player so YMMV! Great lighting, sound was clear, and the animations were extremely well done. Can't say much on the LCD as I didn't really pay to close attention sorry. Mesmerized by the art and play I guess. Similar to the #SDTM guys I did not have enough time with the game to tell people what to buy but for us this was a Solid choice and a Great game we very much look forward to owning. I feel conformable saying it is the best game they have done for a long time Yes including IM sorry.... I personally loved seeing George back in the bull pin again doing what we know he awesome at. Building/designing amazing games. Thanks to everyone at Stern, I do hope this at least gives something to read while we wait for the trucks of amazing toys to hit the streets. lol

And just think a year ago you broke up with Stern!

WHO CARES ABOUT WHO IS IMPACTING ANYBODY'S BOTTOM LINE?! ALL THREE COMPANIES MAKE PLAYABLE AND EASILY PURCHASED PINBALL MACHINES.

I swear, if you asked the typical Pinsider to walk across a Walmart parking lot they'd end up at a Target yelling at the doors that K-Mart sucks.

FFS

Well,
BOOM!!!
That’s all I need to hear.
Hello my long-awaited Avengers replacement!

These are counters to points made in this very thread. You didn’t come all caps the guys blathering nonsense that started it all.

I only quoted him because he was the last talking. Everything leading up to it has been silly too. We have someone who actually played the game, but his comments are surrounded by fanboy wars.

After one day and getting pretty hyped up it’s time to ask the question: Will I buy?
Answer: No/ Not yet. I definately have to play it first.

While the game looks sweet and the layout is interesting, the Bashpool as only interactive mech is a bit lacking. That might be no problem at all (like with Iron Maiden Pro), but as one that bought a Star Wars Pro on release and sold it after 2 weeks, because the Tie fighter on a spring didn’t do it for me, I’m definitely cautious.
Code/ Callouts/ LCD could definitely make the game stand out but we yet have to see more of that.

Anyone knows how/ if the “Modes” form a story?

can I ask Yelobird when you played it, what one did you play the Pro or the Premium?

if the Pro how was the shot from the left flipper then to the upper left ramp via that right lane guide mid field?

and if on the Pro what orbits were available as the notes on the guide just say one controlled gate and 1 x one-way gate for the orbits?

Left Orbit = Pops.

See one way gate in released photos.

Well, good luck fixing the inherent vice of the internet. Everyone stop responding to things altogether. Fanboy Wars truce. We can all just sit and look at one another. Go.

So, send me your pictures, I'll look at you.

The modes don't appear to be linear, so I don't see any sort of highly structured story in there, but it could be something like Dialed In where at certain thresholds of modes passed things happen, but the order of those modes doesn't matter. I guess we're one week away from seeing the game on stream, but if it's playable at the factory, a few more people can probably chime in on that.

Sorry if you disagreed which is fine just sharing what I observed. But respect your opinion as well.

Only the Pro's were out but others in motion. Shots all seemed very smooth and fluid which did surprise me as I questioned the whole left to right crossover up ramp concept. Really well laid out and designed in my view. I to Really hate clunky shot games some of which I have sold in weeks of ownership. Not this one, very smooth in my opinion.

Bold text. BWAHAHAHAH. It's all good.

Just for the record, Target rules, Walmart sucks, Kmart is on the verge of dying, and Meijer's is a weirder, often-times grosser Walmart.

Very cool but a reminder, I don't like to tell anyone what to buy as pinball is So different to everyone from theme to playability. Just don't want anyone taking my tour as a solicitation to spend their money on my opinion. I'll leave that to the blog and pin reviewers! lol

I'm super excited for the cross-ramp, but the rest doesn't do it for me enought to order one. I wish Stern would go a little further with innovation. Elwin will hopefully do something epic for his next pin. For me, this will be a great location game. Can't wait to play it.

As for Stern and the market, they are doing great, but I wonder about saturation. I'm noticing on a local level, there are at least double the pins that are usually for sale, and, unfortunately, they are slow to sell. This tells me that collector saturation has hit my area. I also see big growth in pinbars etc., but I wonder about saturation in the routing market. Pinball is clearly growing, but to me it seems that the production, in general, is set to outperform demand in the near-ish future, say in the next 3-5 years. I hope we can gain pinheads to keep up, but I'm not seeing it. We are in a golden age of purchasing. I see 2020+ as another decade like the early 2000s where pins were being sold for chicken feed. I just might have to buy more property so I can make room!

Which is an accomplishment in and of itself.

Went and listened to clips of the voice actor for Deadpool. Great choice there.