OK, so this is your ultimate goal...but you're talking about two different things. Resale market & NIB prices.

Only a handful of games have gone apeshit in value in the resale market....most hold well enough, it's not a bust. So, resale is fine.

Stern usually sells out all or most LES to distribs in a snap. So - they're doing fine.

They're not going to lower their prices because of a few whiners. The prices they set are the prices these items need to sell for so they can run their business.

Who? Everyone making pinball machines is selling them for comparably high prices. This is not a business where you can "out cheap" the competition...it's expensive to create/build/sell. It is what it is. Don't like it, buy used pre-Y2k games. There are thousands of them, they're fun...knock yourself out. No one is obligated to buy new games....but for those making new games, they sell what they need to sell for to stay in business.

So what you are telling me is that I need to be really careful to make sure that I genuinely like the games I bring in? That I shouldn't bring them in just on hype and I should make sure I like them enough for the long run? Ok. I'll do that. Thanks for the advice.

The LE market has issues because people didn't follow that advice. They get caught up in the hype and buy the next LE that comes down the trail even before they know if they like the game or not. You wouldn't but a car without test driving it, and yet we will spend almost as much on a pinball machine sight unseen. That is just crazy.

Some said we are over the hump. I think the hump is about to hit harder. Final money on MMr , some still owe on predators. Tbl, Hobbit, more smaller boutiques and another stern soon enough.
It's going to get tight .

Can we scroll back to my question please?

Greg this sums it up well, thanks Rob for wording it a bit better then I did.

To put it simply I dont think I had 2 grand worth of fun from STLE. Its fun I like it a bit more then most and have no plans to sell it. But if I could incur a smaller loss from a sale to free up space and feel like I got my "moneys worth" then probably Star Trek would go up for sale sooner rather then later. Not sure if I have ever made money on a pinball machine sale or trade and that is not my goal. Not looking to make a dime but I also dont want to feel there is little to no reason to buy NIB.

I got out of MMR for various reason but number one is there will be a bunch for a grand less, no tax for a nice HOU months after release. Can't blame me for now wanting someone else to take the loss for me? Someone new to the hobby can either learn the hard way or be smart and not throw around money so easily like I have done.

Yeah it's fun to open a game up and it be brand spanking new, no doubt. But the way a lot of collectors baby there games it's not like they see a ton of use in a home environment. But I can do one thing to show my displeasure with nib LE purchases, don't buy them new anymore or stick to premium or pros.

$7500

I sold mine this month for $6800 so please factor that in. I listed it on mrpinball for $7200 and it sold quickly.

Winter is a-comin' on.And prices rejoice.

Liar, lair, didn't you trade your TFLE (bought nib) for a AFM only after a few months before the code update? "Duck".

Sorry Rare, gotta bust your chop, but I would do the same trade myself so I don't blame you at all.

Oh, you sold your STLE for that?

I debated whether to respond but ultimately decided a guy who hides behind a generic username with location not listed deserves a response. I did sell for $6800 in September and I really don't care if you believe me or not.

Good thread Whysnow, I like the discussion and pontificating about what the future looks like

And the key word is "future", short and long term, I don't see how anybody can say that the pinball world isn't changing rapidly in the short term and will look a whole lot different in the long term, 2-3 yrs from now.

I predict, that's what was working for Stern yesterday isn't going to work tomorrow. In fact, an overwhelming number of people are wising up to the reality that its simply smarter to wait it out and let someone else take the hit on an LE Nib from them. Why? Because they have raised prices, not features, to levels that just aren't in line with the competition anymore and people get it. In other words, a guaranteed loss is the order of the day, and its not insignificant.

Thus, if less people are willing to "take one for the team" and buy up front then how can there be secondary sales. The demand for a Stern $7600 Nib LE pin is shrinking RAPIDLY.

Picky and fickle is in vogue and ain't going nowhere.

Whysnow, is not a generic name , just to let you know...

Your on. see you at Expo

I agree with you in principle. Let's not forget, however, that JJP raised the stakes big time in terms of features, but prices of WOZ are in free fall as well.

Everything is in "free fall", relatively speaking, including Woz.

A full featured TH for the same price as a Stern LE? Well for me, its TWD solely because of theme and I love the artwork and then of course Lyman, but its the end of the line with respect to Stern at these prices and what you get for the $$$. Most people are gonna choose TH and pins like TBL and future Jpop's and Lawlor's.

I'm thinking Stern will adjust and adapt. Try to soak people on the LE's and drop the premiums is not the answer. Nope, that tells me Stern and their business model isn't "fine" anymore.

How many more pins are you going to buy after a 9k TBL or a 10k Jpop or an 8k MMr, etc…….? Isn't it smart to keep your powder dry with more and more options to pick from?

What I think will happen in the next 2-3 years in pinball:

1. NIB prices will drop as supply outweighs the demand
2. Used prices will continue to drop
3. Stern will have to adapt in prices and features. Other companies may have to as well.
4. Stern will use the VEs to take money out of the market when the other companies really start shipping games.
5. I hope when the smoke clears the hobby is left with at least 3-4 vibrant and strong companies making games.
6. The good news for us is that the consumer typically wins in the end when competition and supply stack up like this.

Well said Iceman. I agree. I'm In on TWDLE for the same reasons you are but I fully plan on that being my last NIB stern for a while. If there is a Stern I want, I'll wait for the prices to drop and the code to be complete.

Well yeah. That's kind of an obvious "no duh" situation as far as someone having to buy the NIBs. I have done my fair share of them.

I'm certainly not telling anyone to "stop buying new games immediately". I'm just sharing what I perceive is happening, and will continue to happen, as well as sharing how the current market trends have personally affected me (the main reason for me not going forward with buying TWD LE).

We are still a long way from a "sky is falling" scenario. It's more gradual than that. But something's gotta give with all these new pins on the market, at ever increasing prices.

I agree with this. I'm more than willing to take a reasonable loss on a new pin after owning it for a year.

The issue is how much of a loss is reasonable? That will vary from person to person. To me, losing $2k in a year isn't reasonable. Code or no code.

So what if I sell my STLE right now for $6k ...that's six-f*cking-K in my pocket...oh, woe is me!!!

Is that that new fangled "fuzzy math" that I hear about? Where selling a pin for $1800.00 less than you paid for it equals more money in your pocket?

The biggest problem is Stern can't control the secondary market prices.

I do think their LEs will hold better than JJP's. WOZ looks like a falling knife.

On a different note, I've gone back the last 2 years to look at Tron LE, it looks like used ones have dropped from $12k down to $10k. No one would have predicted that 2 years ago.

VERY few businesses control the secondary markets of their products. I don't see this as a huge problem.

Not so much LE specific, but the biggest problem I see in the secondary market is a majority of sellers having firm prices.

My way or the highway is not how a healthy market works.

I am not planning on selling my games. So the drop in value is not as big a deal for me, I have owned the few games I sold for over 5 years each, PotC is like new after 7 years and I'm not about to sell it. So the drop does not effect me, except when I'm out of space or running out of room will limit my buying. In fact being low on space allows me to spend more on nicer trim level like the LE instead of buying several lower priced pins.

So the net result for me, I will get to saturation (space) and may be near there, so I won't buy a game every 6 months, instead I'll just play what I have. It's good having a larger collection for me, so if I tire of a game, I can give it a break. I believe I spend less on pins than I do on cable-internet-radio-netflix-etc. (entertainment) in a month, and those things are non- durable meaning they are used and paid for per month. I don't get mad that I pay $20/month for Netflix and have nothing to show for it. I just accept the fact that things cost money. If that be pinballs or watching TV or whatever. I don't go to sporting or concerts a lot, I know people who spend $5k on sporting events in a year. I don't, I think that's a bit crazy personally, but if they enjoy the events then I'm sure it's worth it for them. My friend paid $500 to see the Rolling Stones in concert, excessive some would say but to him it was well worth it. I once paid $1200 to drive exotic cars, by all accounts was a lot of money for a few hours of driving, but it's a day I will never forget.

I understand, it's just this could possibly hurt Stern.

*cough cough 1300 cough cough*

I'm just sayin, all things considered, it's a huge value hold. Sometimes I take an old videogame back to the store and they offer me $1 lol

Where are these super cheap WOZs? I'd give the game a go in my collection if the price was right.

6 yrs ago people understood the hit they would take on buying NIB games and a 500-1k loss was expected so most avoided NIB and would wait until games hit the secondary market. Not sure when everyone stopped heeding their own advice about waiting to play, get code finished before buying, but it would probably would have helped in keeping the soaring prices in check.

Seriously? Demand meet supply...

If there is a low supply and a high demand, the price will be high. In contrast, the greater the supply and the lower the demand, the lower the price will be.

I would buy an LE NIB if it was something near and dear like STLE and TWDLE, never even consider the high price as it's a must have scenario but I have gone through several huo only much cheaper LE's like Avengers and Xmen and Transformers just to play them, give em a try and once they hit there low it becomes just like a B/W game to a degree. Trade amongst fellow pinheads and use towards new purchases but someone who loves Xmen bought it brand new and for whatever reason sold it, probably at a loss but who cares? Sometimes its worth it to get that dream theme in your house and experience that feeling of euphoria from a brand new pin, turning it on for the first time, to me that's worth something.

I am serious.

Look at how many pins remain unsold on the secondary market because the seller refuses to negotiate.

Translation: they must not want to sell it very bad

Sometimes a seller has to wait for/find the right buyer... Example: a couple months ago I sold my STLE for $7200 in 3 days on my local craigslist. The buyer could of come on here and bought one for under $6800 at the time, but he was local and saved more than the difference on shipping and he got to inspect the game before buying.

This is what every Pinside discussion about prices turns into:

That was Fantastic.....Prices Prices Prices lol who cares!!!! Just play pinball and enjoy your games

Joe(acejedi)

Creamium!

That was largely true, people were ok taking a hit because it was substantially less than now. For example 6 years ago you could get a NIB Stern for $3000, usually due to distributor overstock... and either way the price drop for opening a NIB was maybe $400. It was cheap entertainment to buy NIB and flip it after 6 months which amounted to $70/month of entertainment on a new game. NIB rapidly became safe shortly after that as demand rose and price drops became a thing of the past.

Now people are taking a $2k loss for a single game... so replacing it after 6 months with another NIB requires more than $2k as MSRP also rises every game, even every new run of the same game, so that entertainment cost has risen to $300+/month; a car payment vs a cable bill. Life has been good for manufacturers and NIB purchasers these past 6 years but this can't be sustained for long unless we see continued market expansion, that has already showed signs of slowing.

I highly doubt that....I mean, if waiting for the prices to drop and the code to be complete is a good idea for the NEXT time, why isn't is a great idea for THIS time?

You sound like a smoker saying he's going to quit, first thing in the morning.

As long as a premium model is offered with all the same features as an LE except for the art package, most true players would rather save a little cash and get the unlimited model.

AC/DC bucked the trend by having a far superior color scheme on BIB, and for those that hate too much red, that was the only way to go. Same with Spiderman.

Games that only an LE was offered as a full featured machine will continue to be the desirable unit.

LOL...you will be a convert one day!

The Aussie dollar has taken a nice 9% bath the last month so the whole NIB thing just getting a little harder from here too. We might have to go back to trading whatever stock we have here between ourselves.

Woz was the worst game that I've ever owned and I was one of the few lucky ones without a board issue. In my area I know of at least 8 wozles that were nib and NONE of them are still with the original owners.

Less than 1% of all the pinball titles have even kept up with the value of inflation.

I would hate to bust your bubble, but I sold my STLE at the TPF for $12,500 and yes I have others on pinside like Minnesota13 saw the deal go down. I would have sold two units in the same condition (tricked out) if I would have had it. People wanted to get into a bidding war over it.
I DID NOT want to sell it! so priced it so high and it went anyway. Is this normal "NO". Yes, I ran right back out into the market an bought another one NIB unit. Why NIB? because at that time most were still asking $200 off a HUO vs NIB price. Even some dealers had lost their minds asking $600 to $1,000 more than what they sold it for less than 60 days earlier. Do you blame them? No I don't! but asking and getting are two different things. I bought the NIB for the same price, I paid the 1st time. I like my STLE matter of fact, I like all my games. The only reason I am selling my MB right now is because I want to do something else. If it sells great, if it doesn't I won't cry one bit. I am not giving it away, and I am sure not buying into MB will be remade. I could careless who honks their own horn. It might just take me a few extra months to do what I am wanting to do home wise. So many want to buy a game and then flip it like stock prices 10 minutes later. This is pinball not the stock market. Are game coming off the Stern/JJP and others floors over priced? YES, way over priced. I have my take on all that, but will not share here as so many have ear wax, I'll never get passed. Look at TWD or TWDLE I mean people are trying to move, move, move stuff to grab a that pin. Don't worry they will be the first ones back on here complaining about something with the game and the play of the game. They will also be the first in line to move it and grab the next one. I mean they need something to complain about, their wifes sure do not want to listen to it. I hope the market holds up, we will just all have to wait and see. People are still buying games if the title is right and it's one they really really want in their collection. Like me

How many pins held their value in the 1st 5 years of their release? I have tracked all pin prices from
2000 to current and this same argument could have been made in 2000, as they all lost value.

I think it is a great idea for this time, but TWD is a theme I have been waiting for. It's my favorite show. I suppose if Stern did a original Star Wars Trilogy (which I highly doubt they ever will) I would cave in then as well.

Congrats on your sale. I don't understand why people take the lowest price of a recorded sale and assume that is the new benchmark. Local vs out if state... Fire sale vs a normal selling scenario... Prior dealings... I remember the acdc seller who sold his for $3500 (fire sale) then proceeded to raid every acdc fs thread trying to justify his price. Sometimes a quick sale is needed. I have bought and sold under those conditions; conversely I have encountered sellers who were set on a certain price. My spotless bbh is a perfect example. I could care less what a routed bbh sold for 3 months ago. The same applies to any ebay auction and any out of state friend to friend sale. I have my price and if someone wants to buy it for that price then it's theirs. Otherwise? I will gladly pay it almost daily. I have a nib IM VE. I'm debating whether to sell it. While I listen to all offers I find it amusing when someone says they can get one delivered for $4500. Whatever. On second thought, that is BS! You cannot get IM delivered nib for $4500.