A friend sent me this:
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Mini Guide to the upcoming Double Bubble.
Lessons from 2017 + A few other things to do / not do:
- Wherever you think the top is on an altcoin, it’s probably going 2-3x higher all in the final few days of the run. Shorting alts / btc is in its final blow off phase will get you liquiditated. When in doubt sell the retest.
- Do not fade green chad candles, if it’s your first bullrun, just buy dips and sell rips. Shorting is hard in bullruns and bear traps become super hard to read.
- Group your alts into categories: alts that follow btc, go inverse to btc, pump when btc crabs. Then Use this to find pairs / groups of 3-4 alts that have capital trickle downs. Often these are in the same ecosystem, so say AVAX tops, money will go from high to low caps of the projects in the ecosystem before exiting or flowing back. As the run goes on capital flows faster and faster as everyone plays musical chairs. This is where the real money is made.
- Have targets, sell points, and a whole portfolio exit point if BTC crashes. In the final moments of the bull run you’ll be so euphoric everything goes out the window.
- Once all the bears who try and call tops all the way up flip bull, we are topping, build a twitter where you follow tons of them too.
- When family members / distant friends start calling saying you might have been right, or saying they should have bought and ask you what to buy, it’s nearly over. Tell peeps other than immediate family / best friends you don’t offer financial advice, because when they get rekt they will offload the blame on you. They also never sell the top even if you tell them to, and then somehow sell the literal cycle bottom. Next cycle they will to do the same thing again. “Ahh mate why didn’t I listen to you, what should I buy?” or the infamous “Is btc okay mate?” Every tiny correction. Been there done that, it’s not worth it even for a large % cut.
- Above all take profits often, as a general rule of thumb you should be scaling out 5-10% around every fib zone and 10-30% on the zones above the 64.618. Keep stops at least a few fibs below to lock in profits incase of black swan events on alts (unless your bag is a 50m or below cap) in which case you’ll probably get stop hunted. Those bags are the are yolo 100x or rekt no stop bags. if the project dies / the dev rugs just accept the loss and make sure it’s not a big % of your folio.
- Use leverage to free up $, if say you entered at $1 and price is now $1.50+ that’s safe to slide up to max leverage and remove the excess margin to use for other plays. Make sure stop is in tons of profit. The only downside to this is increasing your ADL which can cause the position to be forced closed on some exchanges.
- Reduce leverage / tighten stops as things become more and more overbought + place safety stops with reduce only on if not in hedge mode (use hedge mode if you’re not already).
- If you make life-changing money for fuck sake take some off the table homies. I went through it so you don’t have to, plz learn from my mistake.
- Finally, If Peter Schiff flips bull, market sell everything
General weekly price action of a bull run:
Monday - Often dumpy & sets the low for the week
Other Weekdays - Follows up trend from Monday low, higher low often put in
Sat & Sunday - Scam sideways into a new high before dumping back down on CME open make new Monday lows through the gap.
General money flow:
When BTC tops this will be the flow of smart money for the final rally & REAL complacency shoulder.
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Euh?.....