Apparently there is limited support at $37,300. If and when that cracks, it’s supposed to be a quick dive down to $30k.

I’m going to be crying in my beer tonight. These last few months have been draining.

I guess I’ll keep bitching and HODLing.

“A new report by Huobi Research, in collaboration with Blockchain Association Singapore, forecast Bitcoin to enter a bear market in 2022. The liquidity tightening measures undertaken by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks across the world and the regulatory action by authorities could play spoilsport and keep crypto prices under check.”

I don’t know enough to know what to think of this. Disturbing (to say the least) if correct.

https://jacobinmag.com/2022/01/cryptocurrency-scam-blockchain-bitcoin-economy-decentralization

Once more I'm not worried at all.. I just hate I bought all the previous higher dips and I have no fiat to buy now

Going to go down until the next run in 4 years

Shit..if we hit 30k I will have to find a way to buy a whole Bitcoin!...and do another wash sale

Tether…

Tether (usdt) did prop up Bitcoin in the past now it’s usage is much smaller thanks to usdc. That article you linked had a biased narrative but it does highlight a problem.

The solution is having a regulated stablecoin with lending protocols (in my opinion) because neither exists atm.

I do like the term peoples ponzi lol.
On a greater scale there are many ponzi’ in the world. Like social security have fun paying into that Gen Z.

Only dreams come true.

Out of curiosity, did any of you big holders sell at any point to lock in some profit and to buy in later?

Also, that article spells out many of the things most people think of crypto. Right or wrong.

"Locking in profit" means you still need to do something with that cash? So, no, I don't sell...and hopefully I never need to.

Given the current trends, that is like buying a stock, and never looking at it regardless of if it goes bankrupt. I get the 'not a loss if you don't sell' part, but that's assuming you are already holding the bag. Losing 50% is quite a punch in the guts, because yes, you could do something else with the cash until things turn around.

I suppose you could make an argument for moving into "value stocks" at a time like this. But I would hate to miss the flip back to "risk on".

I definitely get the timing part. It still seems quite unpredictable at this point.

Most of my profitable positions are no longer profitable. This really stings and the writing on the wall says it’s going to get much worse.

See you all at the bottom.

I'm not a big holder, I have about 15K in crypto. But I've sold at a big profit multiple times. Once to help fund a pinball machine and once to buy my Bobcat miner that still hasn't arrived.

Lots of times I profit from the pump of a lesser coin, sell it, and buy ETH or BTC or another coin. I do this with stocks too, occasionally I buy penny or MEME stocks, sell when it pumps, then buy something like Apple with the profit.

I just checked my Paypal crypto account, the ETH I bought in it 13 months ago is still up 167.5%. Any crypto I've held over a year is still massively up, but about everything I've bought in the last year is now only slightly up, even or down.

Oh man, if ADA hits 99 cents again I'm buying a bunch! I'm going to try to time the bottom to pick up more ETH and CRO too.

I think people have been spoiled by never ending gains really. Maybe it’s GME syndrome. People don’t expect to have to wait for gains anymore, it has to be within weeks, etc at at extreme percentages.

I bought in pretty high up on most of my stuff, so there’s nothing I really can do except ride it out, even if that means waiting for several months or perhaps even years. Selling now just crystallises losses.

I’m sorry but if you’ve been in it pre-2021 then I doubt you’re even that far down, if at all. Measly double digit gains? Let me break out the worlds smallest violin

I definetly wish I unloaded a bunch back in december. I just wanted to make it until about march to make some of it long term gains. But now im even instead of being up over 50%. Bleh

El Salvador buys more Bitcoin, 410 coins. I think their average is higher now than price.

Anyone who has been with crypto for awhile, this is the usual volatility spike. It keeps happening and the floor keeps rising. For those of us who believe BTC is a much bigger asset in the future, and that crypto is really the future of online exchange, it's important to remember that we are expecting those to be future conditions, not present conditions. It's getting started. It can never entirely decouple from world events (stock market is tanking) because people liquidate crypto as needed, but that's the same with all things of value. BTC and ETH can reasonably 10x from here, Netflix stock would be lucky to 2x from its current price.

Anyone else catch the WL for TronWars?

Replace "cryptocurrency" with "dollar" and the article is just as accurate. How much energy does it take to print money or mine then mint a silver coin? Does the dollar have more intrinsic value than the paper it's printed on?

Of course not... it requires a belief that you can ultimately exchange your dollars at the central bank for something of value... that something used to be gold, but they tossed that decades ago so that they could freely issue more money without having to stack gold. And the result is a central bank that has been actively devaluing your dollar for 2 years by issuing more, and more. So people have been trading in their fiat for stocks for higher returns and stability... stocks that are each run by a company headed by someone that you can only hope they are being open and honest, but it turns out they also can to print new stocks on a whim. And now you see the reality that cryptocurrencies are simply mirroring fiat and stocks. And the world swims in irony.

I don’t think that’s how stock works. Unless you mean a stock split, which doesn’t have the same devaluation effect for existing shareholders as printing more money would for people holding cash.

A company can issue new shares of their stock without doing a stock split. All it takes is a board motion (and approval).

I invested over 6 figures by now and currently -25% in the red.

Plan is to buy more BTC and ETH if they drop even lower and HODL.

No pain no gain.

What a bloodbath this week, just in time for taxes! How predictable, ugh. Watching everything go down the toilet is depressing. I’m in HODL mode at this point until things turn back around. In lighter news, I snagged a couple of Ozzy CryptoBatz and pinball prices continue to rise. COVID can go F itself!

55B8D1C6-8C76-43C0-8202-1C0754BF1471 (resized).jpeg

What do you do with the art? Look at it until you can sell for a profit?

Yes, look at it and enjoy it like pins. The Ozzy batz can bite other blue chip NFTs and create new mutant NFTs. Pretty cool, plus it’s Ozzy Prince of Darkness so I had to jump in. But yes, I’ve sold many NFTs for profit and a few at losses

I need to find more shitty $. Friend of mine did just lump sum pay off the rest of a loan I gave him...so that's going to go in...need more!

This is "blood in the streets time" folks... remember what "smart money" does here. P.S...."even if the blood is your own"...

After my bitch fest yesterday, I bought a small amount of HBAR and a small amount of CRO. I'd love to throw more at it, but Uncle Sam will be knocking in April for his cut of my asset disposal last year so I need to start saving for that bill.

Sell , sell , sell ...

If you're selling now, you're doing it wrong.

I’m looking at long calls on Bitcoin again

Cool Dogs are popping off. Look into grabbing one or two before they go higher. I bought another one yesterday, might even add a few more. Half the supply of Cool Cats, same great art. Great potential upside with this one, but DYOR.

https://opensea.io/collection/cooldogsofficial
F258198C-5FA5-42B3-B81E-8E2E61DECEF4 (resized).jpeg

I have no idea what that is.

They worked out pretty well for me last major dip

Just don’t get too greedy with the call amounts.

I think next week is going to be crazy with the stock markets.

Do you have an instruction manual I can borrow?

I'm listening too

So, hey, all you crypto veterans, question. A friend of mine finally convinced me to invest in crypti a few months ago. Looking back now, I realize that was a terrible time to jump in. I've been putting a little more in every so often as values dip. Friday a.m. I put 1k into a bunch of different stuff. As we can alp see, it's still dropping pretty drastically. Would you veterans hold off? Or should u maybe throw another 1k at it? Thoughts??

You’re buying options, which is a common stock practice, the simplest way I can explain is your buying the stock or commodity (Bitcoin)in the future and picking a price. You pick the date and price. A call is you think the price will raise, a put go down. Example let’s say today you buy a call for 12/31/22 of btc at 50k, The price today is 35k. What your hoping for is the price to go over 50k because on the date you can buy (exercise) the option buy btc at a cheaper price. Most of the time people sell the option before the exercise date.

Example say the 50k call.

Let’s say btc goes to 75k. If you bought one btc at 35k and the value is 75k your profit selling is +40k.
Let’s say you bought 50k calls and it goes to 75k from 35k. If you bought the calls for 35k (I wouldn’t buy all at one price but for the example to make it easy) you would buy 525 contracts.
If by the 50k hammer price the price is at 75k you stand to be able to sell your calls at about 120k profit (estimate because you need a buyer to complete the sell without exercising) if you waited till the end. Time is a big factor as you can sell contracts early and if you asset moves more in the direction it’s worth more. Personally I never exercise them and always sell before. I try to slowly start selling when in profit.

Risks
Huge risks if you miss you target along the way the money you put up decays faster. If you wait till exercise date and miss the hammer your calls are worthless or next to worthless.
If options are new to you please do a lot of research. The rewards are greater if you call them right the punishments are much greater too. It’s a confusing process till you do it a few times.

Edit: NFA
34C24281-66B3-418C-8750-743B271F2693 (resized).png

Wtf??? Lol.... man I'm just too old for this.

Thanks for taking the time to type all that out.

So based on your screen shot and what I’ve learned from doing some reading is that you’d be paying essentially $35,000 for the privilege to buy 5.25BTC at a price of $50,000 each between now and December 2022? The privilege can also be sold to someone else at anytime as well and you collect the difference between the future price of the option and what you paid for the option. Is that correct?

Is that actually a trade your going to make? Anything you’re currently looking at for strike price and date?

Do you have to link a bank account to LedgerX or can you just send over some BTC convert it to USD and buy a call? Looks like that’s what you’re using and appears to be what most people are using.

NFT market is attracting all money to a very few top projects. Every project I've got WL for has not done well, but the super-hyped ones have been popping off. I wish I had liquidity but I'm always all-in... my crypto portfolio is 1/3 the size it was 4 months ago, partially due to some level of drain to NFTs, the rest due to bad market.

I actually like my crypto holdings at the moment and there are some fantastic prices out there, but the reality is all new money is going into NFTs though... not the PFP type, the ones with real utility and gaming behind them. I bought some Mouse Haunt boosters yesterday (really cool game). Buying some Heroes of Mavia land next week (think Clash of Clans), and Botborgs (Sci-Fi metaverse game). Homies in Dreamland oversubscribed their whitelist by 3-4X the amount of mints, so it'll be a crapshoot if you're not in Tier 1-2. So TBH I was glad to get some cheap ETH and SOL to keep up with these

Of the 10 eth WL I’ve had 7 are up and 3 are down. The 7 are outweighing the 3 by a lot.

Sol has been less reliable as a WL money maker and a network lately. Little disappointed I hope they get it running smoother.

That isn’t how I would do it. It was just an example of 35k for 1 btc or 35k for calls.

I would actually split it into different hammer prices. More for closer calls and less for further away hammer cost.

It’s not as risky as Futures but it is much more risky than spot prices.

Another "theory":

Screenshot_20220123-113325_Twitter (resized).jpg

If this pattern holds you're looking at the next cycle being 2023-2031 (8 years) with a 5.5x to 1.1M.

If/when the US/Fed releases a digital currency, how do you guys think it will effect BTC value?

Personally I think it will increase it's value. A US CBDC is just fiat in digital form...which frankly most fiat already is anyway. It's just a "stable coin". One that gives the feds much more surveillance capability. It gives them the ability to audit every transaction. It's still not scarce and it's still not "hard/sound" money.

But, it introduces even more people to the concept of digital money. Which will lead even more people to Bitcoin.

BTC was supposed to be $100k at the end of last year. I’d seen some commentary earlier in the year that talked about it going up to $250k in 2021 too (I think this belief was predicated on the belief that the SEC were going to accept that Bitcoin ETF, which they seem to be permanently delaying a decision on).

I’m sceptical about that tweet simply because it presupposes that past returns are an indicator of future returns, which is the very first thing you’re told to not rely on with stocks & shares. It also disregards the chance of any kind of potential SEC intervention.

It’s possible that it will, but at the same time I do wonder whether it has any wind in its sails anymore.

A large part of the speculation about BTC reaching $100k and beyond had to do with predicting institutional adoption of BTC, and crypto overall, which we are seeing, but it's still at least as speculative as any individual stock, so we wound up with crypto and the stock market being tethered together, and money fleeing the stock market is being dumped into a devaluing fiat instead of BTC.

Not having an ETF for retirement accounts to use is an issue, but it's also tough to trust an asset to be a store of value when it swings up and down every quarter 20-50%... and is known to dump 90% every 4 years. So investing in BTC becomes useful only for traders. This is the exact inflationary environment that BTC was designed for, but it's going to have to become the "stable" crypto to get that final leg of mass adoption.