$300 would be way to much for one single hologram. IF muliptles were involved in the package for $300, then maybe, yes.

Henrik doesn't have to choose between $300 and $125. He can do both. He can sell as many as he can at $300, and then when the phone stops ringing, he can drop the price to $250. Rinse and repeat.

Wait for it to get to $150 and there might not be any more.

And guys, don't forget that this is Monopoly, and I'm not talking about a crummy Stern pinball game. One company owns the license to that Creature image. There are only three things that can make Henrik drop his price. 1. Nobody buys. 2. A competitor comes along...but wait, there's that pesky licensing issue. 3. He feels like it.

Completely agree - what I was alluding to prior. All about supply and demand. If supply is unknown you can hit multiple buyers at different price points and different times.

Also, it seems we are all assuming that the initial outlay needs to be recouped in one hit. Most businesses have a longer term strategy that means they can put out their product and recoup development costs over time.

Setting a price that absorbs the development cost based on initial (first run) sales will make the hologram unaffordable to many.

Aiming for longer term sales would mean a lower unit cost where the development costs are spread to reflect the ultimate sales figures rather than what can be sold in the first few weeks/months.

We will all find out soon.

My hologram is somewhat blue, but decent. I will probably buy the video add on but would like a hologram too just to sock away. Here's my take:

$100 - I buy it without question.
$200 - I think about it, and probably forget to buy it, just like the last hologram.
$300 - I never think about it again.

I think that the small percentage of people on here that say they won't buy one if it's $what ever, will be easily outweighed by the people who will.

Selling multiples for a price would be ridiculous, as most people won't have any interest in stashing the others away, only in flogging the others off on E-Bay, thus cutting Henrik's chances of selling to other people massively.

Let the man make some money, and be glad that someone has at least bothered to produce something that will keep your pin more or less original. Ask someone who is desperate for something like a smashed ramp for their pin that is no longer available if they would buy one at almost any price. I'm pretty sure what the answer will be.

That's the thing - maximizing profit is not incompatible with a reasonable price.

Microsoft in year 2000 is a comparable case. Microsoft had a monopoly on computer operating systems. Like Henrik's good work here, the major cost is the up front development cost. The cost to actually make and distribute the copies is miniscule: in Microsoft's case, it is the cost of printing CD's and boxes.

Microsoft didn't recoup their development cost and maximize profit by charging $1000 per license. They maximized profit by charging approximately $100 per license.

Obviously, individuals will have their own price points, but I think this is close for a lot of people.

At $300 bucks no way am I buying one. I have two creatures right now with blueish green holograms and would like to put new ones in them but will be satisfied with how they look now at that price point. At $100 or so I would buy both and possibly a third one as a spare.

agreed +10000!!! He can still make a lot of cash by selling in volume.

I am just glad someone is making it happen.

True.
And would it be fair to sell a bunch at $300 and then drop the price to $150? There would be a bunch of pissed off people...I think like those color DMD's, you come up with a price and stick with it.

Although I understand what you mean, the problem with the Microsoft thing Nosro, is that it more or less proves the point the other way. Whilst their outlay would have been vast, the amount they charged for example on Windows 7 Premier Pro super duper edition (what ever it was called) was a fortune at around £200.00, which when you consider they were expecting to sell millions, is actually bloody expensive.

I expect that selling several hundred Holos will be the max in the short term, and long term should be seen as a long range income, not paying back what you've outlaid, otherwise it's a bad financial business investment.

I expect if no one had ever talked about making a new one, and a hundred turned up on e-bay as just been found in a lock up somewhere, they would sell like hot cakes for a mint, and no one with think anything of it. It's only because we see someone doing it now that people are saying they would be upset it if cost too much.

Also CBM, your quite right of course, to launch it at one price and then drop it would leave a very bad taste in peoples mouths to the extent that they may not wish to purchase further items from them in the future.

I would love it to cost $100.00, but don't see that being realistic.

But hey, what do I know?

Lets say production and R&D costs around ($25,000-$40,000), your retail price could be $375.00 USD?
Since I don't have a CFBL, I'm just a bystander and playing the game........

Pinball Dreams is a great company. I have done business with them and they provide some top notch products. Thanks Henrik for all you have done so far.

GAP

I commend you for taking on this project...

For fun I will try my best guesstimate on your outlined costs:

- aprox 200 hours of research Free >> that is part of starting a new product/business

- costs for scanning the figure we finally found >>>??? $250-500

- costs for the 3d artist (aprox 60 hours salary for a professor) >>> most professors I work with are happy to 'get the grad student some experience' and the cost is usually free or close to it

- costs for 3d printing >>> ??? $1500

- cost per hologramm >>> the actual thing? $5-15

- costs for developing the mounting plate >> again my time is free as it is part of starting a business

- production costs per mounting plate >> ???$5-10

- costs for assembling the holo >> ???$1-5

- sales taxes >>> doesn't the consumer pay this? or do you mean on the parts you used in production? if so ~6-7%

- VAT >>>??? is this export tax? just pass that on to the overseas buyer.
- licence fees >>>hopefully only a few $ per piece since PPS has also liscenced the rights to 2 other competitors for use of creature image use.

- worldwide insurances for the product (without them you cannot get any licence)>>> ???$500-$2500

- costs for preinvestement (interest rate) >>>I do not make investments with other peoples $, but again if you need to, then that is the cost for you to start up a business/new product

- common costs for the business >>> It sounds like most of this is farmed out work so overhead should be low

- salary for employees (assembling, packing, shippping, writing innvoices and so on). >>>With a small company, I am the only employee and my 'salary' is whatever profit I hopefully make after recouping costs of development and production.

I mean no offense if I am way off on my guesstimates. I am just pulling numbers out of thin air for the most of it.

However, from a business standpoint, your costs mean squat to the consumer if you can't provide a product at a price point that people are willing to buy (and in enough volume to make your efforts worth it).

I know that typically no matter how much time I put into a pinball project, I will not make anything for my efforts. I hope you do make enough to make it worth your time, but with 2 other options soon to be available to CFTBL owners I will wish you good luck if you are priced at a similar pricepoint. It seems apparent that if given the choice and if prices are equal, then many people have already made up their mind. If you product is significantly less, then you will likely steal lots of business from your competitors.

again, good luck, and awesome job thus far!

I'm not a creech owner so I may be wrong but surely there's no point in buying an extra spare holo? The foil will deteriorate at the same rate whether its in the machine or in a cupboard ?

Classic business 101.

Set an expectation that a price will be high due to x, y and z and then deliver a price that seems like a relief? The post that followed Henrik's list of outgoings was saying $375 per piece.

Just set a price and the market will respond.

Amen to that brother.... I hope the price is realistic and than most simple folks that don't have $100,000+ collections can afford to get one, but I feel it is going to be geared towards the guys with cash oozing out of their pockets that would pay any price for em...

I totally get how much it costs to make.

But, in order to re-coup costs volume is the key. Sell 1000 and price can shoot down. If only 250 then price needs to be high.

My hologram is ok, bit bluish but mainly green. $150 is about my price. If it died I would pay more but as a back up, less.

Hmmm...it is sounding more and more like I'm going video...we'll see.

Shit Joe, why do you want to go and be logical. No one does that anymore.

well, any creech owners outside the euro zone will not pay VAT. they might pay duty to their home country. i have bought several high end german trains and never charged for VAT. sometimes i paid duty, other times no tax/duty at all.

I think it should cost three dollars and eighty-six cents!!

Waiting to see price and then weighing my options. My hologram is very blue... And blue hologram makes me blue.

I realise that we've all been going wrong. Rascal has the right idea. Let's not say what we think it will be, let's go for what we'd like.

Rascal, I'll see your $3.86 and raise you 13 cents because I just don't care about the money.

Happens ALL the time with new products, especially when initial demand exceeds initial supply. Also happens when demand after product launch falls short of business plan, and also happens when a competitive product is introduced or if the price of a competitive product is lowered.

Did some of you guys seriously think this would come in around 100 bucks? For years we've been told this project is either impossible to do or too much work to be worth the effort.

I don't think he got it for free, or close to free. Sounds like he got billed at an hourly rate and it was a significant amount. I don't think he would have listed it as an expenditure if it was cheap.

I didn't realize that 3D artistry was such a crappy field to get into if 60 hours of time could be outsourced for nothing.

No, but there is a diminishing return on a new hologram. If it is going to cost $800 for a game that is only worth $3000, then we really have to decide how much it needs to be replaced. My hologram is scratched, but very green. I would like a better one, but it isn't high on my priority list. The price point needs to be low enough that games that have less than perfect holograms will get replaced. Not just the games that don't have them.

With nearly 8000 produced, I see a lot of opportunity for the Holo options out there. As for what this one should cost, well, we should know here soon. I know most companies want to recoup their investments as early as possible, but I would not try to make it up in the first 250. I think the first 1000 is a fair estimate and pre-order is also an option, so $250 is where I hope it lands. Now if there is a way to preserve these Holos, and priced right, I would buy 2.

i'm too excited to give a shit what it costs!

I think it should cost three dollars and eighty-six cents!!
Waiting to see price and then weighing my options. My hologram is very blue... And blue hologram makes me blue.

$3.86, shoot, wait a little longer and save the hard earned dough. I've received word there's a knock off coming out for $2.86. It's real close to the original but not perfect.

creechholo.jpg

Fine German professors expect their annual tenure salary hourly rate and most in Germany work about 1500 hours a year after taking into account all of the paid holidays.

Well I guess I will put my 2 cents in. Running a manufacturing business with 400+ employees under me I guess qualifies me to add a few things. First thing, quantity makes a huge difference in price point, but also most of the time you pay the same price for the first 100+ as you would if you just bought 1 (this is true for most products but there are always exceptions), so the key in any business model is the sell maximum quantity to reduce costs when possible. In this case as someone posted earlier the seller should shoot for a price point that would attract buyers looking to upgrade as well as those looking to replace a missing Hologram. Limiting yourself to only 1 party severely restricts your earning potential, and future sales (After people replaced their missing Holograms then you would have no further sales), whereas if you marketed to multiple parties you would ensure future sales as there are always people who will buy something that is affordable to put away just in case they pick up the machine in the future.
The second and most important thing in this case (don’t mean to alarm the manufacturer in this case but the warning bells should be going off in his head right now) is the fact that 2 other companies have been licensed to make the same exact product. Knowing this makes your price point even more critical. If you price the product to high, then buyers will just wait until one of the other companies come out with their version and then you are not only stuck with excess inventory, but you also lose “all” of your investment costs, which has bankrupted more than one company. It is always better to make a small amount on your product then no money at all.
The third and final point is, the first one to market with a quality affordable product is the one who gets all the business, and the others are always going to play catch up. After someone buys your product and likes the price and quality, then they tell everyone who is in the market for it, and don’t usually give the second guy a single thought. That in turn increases your sales. How many times have you asked about buying something and everyone says “I bought this and it worked great, I don’t know about the other ones”. Remember when Xerox came out with the first photo copying machine? People still call it a Xerox machine every time they need to make a copy even though the machine is made by someone else. Why? Because they were first to marker, and made a quality machine that people could afford.

It's like looking in the mirror of a morning. Scary..........

I'm assuming that's a picture of you muppet man?

"Well I guess I will put my 2 cents in. Running a manufacturing business with 400+ employees under me I guess qualifies me to add a few things."

First, how's the weather down in Mexico today?

Seriously, thank you for the dose of rationality. Didn't know about the other licensees...who are those guys?

Not sure I agree with your comment about customers being willing to wait for a cheaper competitive product if the initial product is priced "too high". Most/a lot of the pinball people here seem to be like a 16-year old in the back seat with a willing girl for the first time...they don't seem to be a particularly patient group.

And "too high" is in the eye of the beholder. With the sort of money being paid for the "mods" that people glue, screw, and zip tie to otherwise perfectly good games, there is no telling what "too high"is. Given that it is always easier to drop a price than to raise one, and what people are obviously willing to pay for stuff around here, there is a far better chance that these things are initially priced higher, rather than lower.

But whatever the price, I GUARANTEE that despite all the whining about price and affordability and video alternatives, these things will be sold out within hours of their announced availability.

Henrik,
I've been to hospital twice this week.
Doctor said I have come down with a bad case of anticipation.

Worst he's ever seen!

I got the Boogie Woogie Flu!

If only I were that good looking...........

That's #24 himself, Jeff Gordon! I'm not sure why this picture is on the internet, but there it is!

Kind of getting frustrated checking this thread every few days, only to find out the price still hasn't been announced!

Come on Henrik, put us all out of our misery...

I smell CONTEST! Whoever guesses the exact amount gets a freebie. I guess $350.
(we just have to get Henrik on board)

Is holo anything like hulu?

You're a heartless meanie head, all repro holos should be free and there should be a government department created to insure of this occurring!

har har har

If you "need" one, then you'll buy one (either nos, used or repro).
If you don't want to pony up for the cost of a replacement for your blue or yellow or
whatever color one, shouldertocryon.com should exist.

Hey Henrik -

The way you phrase this is interesting. It's actually totally backwards. This is the kind of questions that you need to ask yourself upfront, not at the end. The price you charge actually has NOTHING to do with most of that. In fact, most of those are spent (past) costs.

The price you charge is a balance of what the market will bear and what your expected volume will be at that price to maximize the profit. For example, let's say your production cost is $25 at 1000pc and $15 at 10000pc. Let's say you charge $300 and sell 1000, that's $275000 profit to recoup your NRE (this is a spent cost and has no bearing on quantities) plus profit. If you price it for $100 and sell 10000, that's $850,000 profit to recoup your NRE and profit. I know these numbers aren't realistic for this since this is pinball and no-one is going to sell those quantities. But, you get the idea.

I also know you're not new to business so I expect I'm not telling you something you don't already know. But, too many people (including large pinball parts suppliers who shall remain nameless), don't think this way. Ideally, you do the research up front to see what the market will bear for cost and projected volumes and then estimate your NRE. Then you decide whether it's even worth doing the damn thing in the first place.

Jaz

Dear Jaz,

Thank you for that. I like it that you say my phrasing is interesting. My English may not be so great, but it is better than your German. My parts are also better than your parts. We have a saying over here "Why does everyone know how to run my business better than I do?".

NO HOLO FOR YOU!

Hehe. What I want to know is with all these experts out there why didn't cheap holos come to market years ago?

But seriously, can we let the guy make his product and set a price before telling him he's doing it all wrong?

so, call me crazy, but do you have 2 pinside accounts Henrik?

Pinball-Dreams from Germany
and
JoeGrenuk from Atlanta, GA

Either that, or it appears that JoeGrenuk is answering questions for Henrik...

What fun is there in THAT??