Yeah, unfortunately I knew it was here, but I was waiting to see something official for my city. Plus I still don't think there's any testing going on in my county yet. There is a drive up test tent set up, but it's empty.

At least we’re not debating dimpling and busted coil stops.

I think I made it clear in my post, we have to ask ourselves tough questions. What should be the cost to save those that potentially might die of which already have underlying issues taking into consideration exposure, contraction and recovery rates? I don't want anyone to die but that is not an option. This is a question we will be forced to ask ourselves soon than later. Are we to avoid it simply because it is uncomfortable? You think I don't have family members or friends that fall into this category?

Not to fan panic flames but HHS and UK equivalent reports on crisis have been released and they predict a very bad outlook....much worse than either government is stating publicly.

Waves of outbreaks for 1-1.5 years, no real end in site until vaccine...they’ve lost too much time already. Very restrictive lockdowns for better part of a year are needed.

And:
“Supply chain and transportation impacts due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will likely result in significant shortages for government, private sector, and individual U.S. consumers.”

So, the TP nuts may have been on to something.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6819-covid-19-response-plan/d367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

We are in a pretty low information environment right now. The best evidence I have seen thus far is that people in higher age groups have a pretty high mortality rate (from the Imperial College report in UK):

IMG_6993 (resized).jpg

This isn't a complete data set yet. We have no idea what the real denominator is to figure the actual rate of infection. It just includes symptomatic cases. This also includes data from countries where the health system was overwhelmed (Italy) and some people who died in a hallway because they couldn't get an ICU room might not have died in a country where they were better prepared.

So I nailed it?

Exactly! There is no such thing as two sides to the facts. Pretending that the group that argues against the basis of known reality (I.e FACTS) has any merit, is f'n ridiculous!

I think there is a lot more at stake then simply "Getting back to work".

Mandatory Vaccinations soon. This really is starting to look scripted.

Repo-man? There are going to be many unpaid loans on vehicles. People will be giving up the payments on the seldom used motorcycle, trailer, quad, giving them up to the repo-man.

OK, so I was close then. How about this - "allow coronavirus to take it's course even though consequences to the older/vulnerable population will be severe, so that we can go back to normal asap and prevent civilization from falling"

16 likes on your post and I am curious to know if people understood the point.

Apparently Not, I didnt either. So your answer is let nature take its course?
And if as history shows, Plagues , like the Black may have killed 500 Million....thats 670 years ago....
Think of the percentage!!
Do you Know it will be better or worse?

My point is we have a finite amount of resources and an abundance of problems in the world to solve. We have to approach this from an economic perspective because our economic utility is limited. How do we get the most bang for our buck to minimize deaths and minimize other horrible outcomes if all resources are concentrated on Covid? There will be no perfect answer. People will die. The economy will suffer. Lives will be upended. We live in an imperfect world unfortunately. I'll tell you this, we are most likely past the point of returning back to normal asap. That's definitely a false choice, as is civilization completely falling.

I'll humor you. If I had to answer your question I would say yes, let this run it's course to prevent all of civilization from falling (your words, not mine).

I'm not sure if you are just trying to argue for the sake of arguing at this point or I struck a nerve. Perhaps you fall into the high risk category and this is unpleasant? If so I apologize and I hope you stay safe.

I'm not orchestrating the narrative. I'm simply pointing out that these are questions we are going to be forced to ask ourselves.

There are links to detailed government reports a couple posts up that will end speculation as to best estimates and choices.

Searched the topic, didn’t see this in there. One thing we may see is an increased birth rate in the next year. People can’t go out to normal places and have to stay home, sometimes there’s something besides pinball!

You are talking triage. It could happened. In times of scarce resources, it could happen. You have one ventilator and 3 patients needing it. One patient is healthy young man in his 20s with many productive years in front of him. Another in middle age, diabetic and overweight. The third is 82 years old and suffers dementia.

One way to make is decision is rock, paper, scissors. Or you could flip coins for odd man out. Or you could go Ennie-meenie-miny-mo. But none of those work on the battlefield where you have to choose between some soldier laying on the beach, crying for mama, with his guts blown out; Your other choice is a soldier with half his leg blown off; Him you can help.

You did not win any friends and influence people but you are correct.

You aren't hurting my feelings, just trying to figure out what you actually meant and I have a lot of time on my hands, lol. Think I have it now - "just let it run it's course, because of limited resources and unlimited problems" Correct me if I am off-base.

It seems to me to be a harsh and unrealistic view of how to solve this issue, maybe with unintended consequences. Take the first 2 columns of the chart - % of cases requiring hospitalization/critical care. It really starts to jump at age bracket 30 and 40. It may not kill those people very often, but it can put quite a few in the hospital. That hospital trip is presumably to save their life.

But, if the hospital system is overwhelmed - it's the hallway or home for people in all the brackets who get there late - regardless of need - Covid, car wreck, gunshot wound, heart attack, industrial accident, whatever. All the models show our system overwhelmed if we do not flatten the curve for Covid. Everyone needs the hospital system - regardless of age or illness. We are in this together whether we like it or not. IMO only, there really isn't a 'tough choices' scenario where it only affects the older/more vulnerable population if the hospitals are swamped from a 'let'r rip' strategy.

Regeneron is working on a coronavirus Antibody shot that will give a healthy person passive immunity for 30 days at a time. It will likely be given to healthcare workers first. It won't be ready until late summer. And guess what the average age of doctors is in the US? 51 years old. 29% of them are between 55 and 65. It's going to be hell on them, other healthcare professionals, and everyone of us unless we give them some breathing room by slowing this down.

Good news for my work situation. We got in or new supply of hand sanitizer, wipes and other cleaning essentials today. Now have a team of people going around sanitizing high touch areas in the store. Cashiers are wiping down keypads and touchscreens between customers. The large panic crowd has finally settled down so we actually have breathing room again. As with many other stores we are now opening in the morning for elderly only shoppers for one hour. Many customers are now wearing masks.

Bad news is customers still have the need to get in your face to ask what isle this or that is in or where is the bathroom and so on. A lot of people still don't take this seriously. Saw 3 couples where the women were clearly pregnant. Wonder what kind of affect this would have on the baby if they would get it. Also saw a little elderly lady (probably in her 70's) was trying to open a plastic bag to put loose candy in by licking her fingers to open it. Hmm, she was just holding a candy scoop that dozens of other people held. 40% of our shelves are empty and not a single roll of TP came in today.

Had to maneuver around 3 sick people coughing and sneezing at our grocery store today. No masks. Why do sick people go shopping? Send others or wear a mask please!

Well boys and girls,

The US has passed S. Korea and France on the Total Cases list.

The US is now #6 on the list. I seem to recall Larry Kudlow saying they had an airtight (well, almost airtight ) lock on it

And the US is the only country in the top 8 that has more deaths than recoveries.

Screen Shot 2020-03-18 at 5.56.40 PM (resized).png

My english is to bad for this discussion but I will try it.
I am glad that I am not a politician and I don't have to answer the question you got there. As a human I don't like cost benefit questions when human lifes are involved. But to give you data that they post here in germany on news sides. Simulations are estimating 2.2 Million people dead for the USA alone without activities to shutdown and minimize personal contact. With a total shutdown you can only pause the curve of infection. A vaccine we will see in 18 months or longer time. So the total shutdown has to cover a time of 18 months or more. With a "soft" shutdown that we now try in germany to lower the curve the simulations tell that it would cut the dead count in half. Not more! But a few minutes ago in the german television was a news show and they explained the big problem that many people who think it would be better to just let the virus run still don't see is, that we don't know enough about what the virus does: A high percentage of people will not die directly but will get heavy damages to their lungs and would suffer the rest of their lifes from it. Nobody can say what this means for the future. It's not a cold that you get and can recover from.

Getting really tired of all this winning

Some people don't have anybody to help them out during tough times. Spouse has died. No living family to call on (that's me). The old neighbor they made a pact with for hard time help has died. They have very little money and cannot afford delivery. They may not be able to stockpile food. If they want to eat they have no choice but to go to the store and buy what they need.

There have been lots of people in the U.S. that have had Coronavirus and recovered that was never documented because they didnt go to the doctor. Those are definitely NOT accurate numbers.

Yeah this guy^^^^

This is true, I see it all the time. Plus many stores have a pharmacy in the store so where do you think sick people will be? I see people that look half dead standing waiting on their prescription. And while they are there, might as well grab some over the counter meds and some food.
I always make a point NOT to walk past the pharmacy or through the medicine isle.

Agreed, but it’s the data we currently have.
These numbers will change as time goes on (for various reasons).

I understand but why report numbers that you KNOW is not accurate?

You could say the same thing for the flu. It shouldn't matter if the numbers are 100% just use it as an educated guide.

Noticed a lot have recovered now, any one know what they are saying about it? I do not really watch the news.

The numbers aren't great data sources right now. Don't have a clue how many cases we have had or have currently. Data will get better over time. Low information environment right now.

I'm pretty sure we can whip Germany's ass by Thursday though.

Those are the numbers we have and that is better than no numbers. Testing fiasco has really hampered our ability to get our heads around it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The numbers on this website are all I know. I have been using the numbers on this website since these conversations on pinside started. If there are any inaccuracies I am guessing that these will be too low. But better than nothing at all.

What should they report then?
Those numbers will settle where they settle (just like the pinside top 100)

In germany they think we have at least ten times more cases as there are in the statistic above. But no one can say it for sure. Some countrys test more some less.
The link to the english simulations I talked about:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

All current numbers are pretty meaningless until a lot more testing is done, ya know, cold hard facts.

Are they trying off-label use of any medicines in Germany - antivirals, rheumatoid arthritis, or anything like that?

For anyone on lockdown, My wife got me this for Christmas, quality, convenient garage tunes, and unlike the virus it wasn’t made in China

If they do I don't know, have not heard about anything in the news. We have a great health care system and I think everybody has full trust in the system. They stopped many unnecessary operations in the hospitals and have for now enough capacity. But there is a lack of special breathing masks and protective suits if to many heavy cases would happen. I think from what they said on the TV this will be the main problem for the next days.
What I think is interesting and they talked about here is that the tests for the virus often times is faulty. But in many cases they could identify ill people with computed tomography even when tests where negative. And they hope they could use this to help people early.

It is only officially day 3 of no school and my daughter asked to go back...

My brother is a radiologist and said something similar about a CT of the chest I think

This here was my original interpretation. I appreciate the heartfelt and politely worded back and forth between you and @djshakes. Honestly my contribution to the debate would be a rehash and rephrasing of what y’all have already said. Probably less civilly. So for that, thank you two.

Have faith people. There are/will be a tremendous amount of resources working for a cure. It won't be long before every biopharma and scientific group is working together to create a vaccine/treatment regime. There could not be a bigger financial incentive and the largest companies with the smartest people will figure it out.

Deaths are pretty much 100% accurate, whereas infections are likely at least 10* what's being reported. Means the actual mortality rate is likely 10* less than what's being reported.

“Likely” and numbers don’t mix well, math is finite, and yes 100% accurate on death numbers made me laugh.

That's exactly right. There's no way that every death that was actually caused by this virus has been verified and counted.

Laughing here as well. lol.

The chart with the numbers isn’t the scary one. It’s this one (from the same site) that clearly shows the trajectory here in the US: about a 9x increase every 8 days, with no signs of slowing. If the lockdown efforts that started about a week ago are effective, they’ll start showing up in the slope of this chart around mid-April. But follow the line out another 24 days:

Mar 2 - 100 cases
Mar 10 - 994
Mar 18 - 9345 (today)
Mar 26 - 84,000
April 3 - 756,000
April 11 - 6,800,000

If we get to even 2M, the hospitals will be completely overwhelmed and mortality will shoot through the roof. Pray that everything we’re doing right now is enough, and that we can bend the curve sooner than this.

EDIT/UPDATE: the above numbers seem so ridiculous that I think it must be that the increases in testing are what’s causing the multiplier to be so high. So I’m not gonna freak out, but I’ll revisit this on March 26 to see where things stand.

206BB1E2-4A1C-4728-B5BA-CAACEA86CCCE (resized).jpeg

First case in Harrisburg. And it gets better, there are now more people contaminated from the first.

“Several other individuals who were exposed to this agent are exhibiting symptoms consistent with COVID-19,”

Also 2 cases in York now.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/03/us-courthouse-in-harrisburg-closed-after-agent-assigned-there-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

Most likely these cases existed prior and some have already cleared the virus. Up until earlier this week my hospitals could only process 60 tests per day. We are getting equipment that will process 500 any day now. Most likely other facilities are in the same boat. Numbers will shoot through the roof causing more panic but as mentioned by others earlier, death count is the one to watch.

But again, "likely" doesn't mean squat.