ok

There's not really anywhere for pinball to go but up. If these new companies don't make it, we're right back where we were with just Stern. Might as well let them give it a go.

You believe that operators and collectors can continue to support ever increasingly costly pinballs? We are at 8-10k for a fully featured machine now and they are only getting more expensive. If the cost increases continue at the steady pace they have been even stern will be out of business.

Personally, I can't wait to see this house of cards come crashing down. I don't know the BOM/POM for a new machine, but there ain't no way in fricking hell it increased $3000+ in about a 10 year period.

Pinball survived with only Stern around, and it'll survive another "oh shit" time period like it did during the 2000s. This $8k-$10k for a fully featured machine crap needs to end. This tier stacking crap needs to end - 1 machine was just fine and worked well for decades before Stern read enough messages here and said "Oh, ok, let's milk the community some more"

Stern needs to get a good reality check and stop screwing over the people that held their head above water. Yeah, we may need them for new machines (maybe...), but they definitely need us to give them a reason to be around.

^ Amen! ^

There is a formula. But Stern abandoned it years ago:

"New" pinball is completely backward; making less and charging more. Makes no sense to me, and I expected the market shift long before now. There is obviously some deep pockets in the pinball "collector/speculator" market to support these backward business models.

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I'd love to see prices dip back down into quasi-realistic territory, but until someone else besides Stern can just crank out games to fill the desires of people who want something NOW, all this competition really isn't competition.

Upvote for the ET reference!

I wouldn't be so sure. IBM was totally dominating the computer market like Stern is with pinball. I'm sure I dont need to remind you how two guys in a garage built a computer company (Apple) that essentially took over the electronics landscape while IBM faded to obscurity. Who knows who the next two guys in a garage are that will be the next major pinball company. They need to outsmart Stern with innovations and a perfect mix of features and affordability.

Jobs got booted from his own company and got brought back in a decade later by the man who dominated the pc market. Wozniak learned he was a terrible pilot and while still technically an employee has not been part of the company since the mid 80s.

IBM does what they do best. Come up with something, get it going, and sell it off. They make their bread and butter off fat service contracts and as such are excellent at reinventing themselves.

As much competition as McDonalds has now, people still line up around the building to eat their crappy hambugers and fries.

Since the show Diners Drivers and Dives, people are putting more value in boutique foods and gourmet burgers etc. I think McDonalds posted their first loss in their history a few years ago because people want better than crap. But you are right, people still line up around the building just not as much.

This is exactly what I thought when JJP joined the fun.
I was wrong. It simply told Stern there was a market for expensive pins.

Nice to see we can use a foodgument and not get pinside too angry.

A more expensive pin isn't necessarily a bad thing. Look at the mod market and how many thousands of dollars people put into their machines on top of the original purchase price. If they created a more expensive pin loaded with features then that would be cool with a certain segment of the pinball community who want feature rich product. If you are buying a premium or an LE and you are still buying mods for it then there is a problem. JJP offered a feature rich product at a higher price. Stern just matched their price.

Be prepared to get educated by Dr. Flynnibus since he has a PhD in pinball economics and will compare this to the iphone or GT-R

The only way that increased competition is good, is the belief of either a better product, or a less expensive cost, or something of both.

In the pin industry, the only way that this can be successful, even with higher prices, is new customers.
Enlarging the market.

Is this what Stern Stores are suppose to be?

Its my hope with increased competition, Pinball gets lots more PR. Holiday Positioning, TV shows, Celebrity Playing, Oprah, etc...

If this happens, then competition can grow, and we should see innovation, and cost benefits.

Certainly renewed interest and demand will also drive up restored and classic pins too.

But with all these new games, and no market growth, I dont see how all can be supported. But its still possible.

Except at some point the market becomes over-saturated and people stop justifying the expense.

The quick and dirty history.
Late 90's pinball tanks.
Early to mid 2ks, collectors are buying games cheap. Parts are difficult to come by and little in the way of repo parts.
05-10 cheap pins dry up. more people get in due to the power of the internet and a resurgence in parts/knowledge.
10 to now people who got in early fuel new purchases by selling off old machines that are now worth $$. New blood throws money at whatever moves to build their collections.

Not saying the hobby is going to tank in an instant, but at some point it will be over saturated. Unless you continually get new blood eventually there is going to be a point where people simply do not have the room or funds. The higher the cost for new machines the sooner this happens.

Now, if there is some new development that renders DMD titles archaic they might drop in value while newer machines don't. LCDs have been argued as one possibility, but they have been in machines for a few years now and have not shown to be a revolution.

Dear NPO,
It is with heavy hearts and a slight smirk we must inform you that your Stern Army application has been DENIED.
Lol,
Uncle Gary

I'll trade you a Big Mac meal for a pinball machine.

Which one?

Lot-of-3-2003-Mcdonalds-Happy-Meal-Toys (resized).jpg

What would have happened with Capcom if they hadn't pushed out Flipper Football first, and no one had seen Zingy Bingy?

In the world of business, not every business is successful
I've seen business Start Up, and then close six months later

There is nothing wrong with having a dream, but as we have seen, having a dream is not enough, yoy need to have a business plan

Us pinfans need to stop trowing money at dreamers

Those are pinball machines like McDonalds is food.

Increased competition is good but needs a qualifier...and that is competition with lower prices with same or better quality. Then the house of cards will come crashing down. If every guy that enters charges the same amount then that won't help much.

Early 90's were a boom time for pinball. Mid to late 90's was a death spiral.

Alvin G tried to make budget games out of a Hospital. Originally Alvin G wanted to sell designs to Premiere who turned them down. They blew a chunk of change making their head to head games which were doomed, punchy the clown was doomed, and their pins were going up against Williams heyday. No manufacturer gives the budget or time to design new machines that 90's williams did.

Capcom's designers soured their relationship with their Japanese owners. Making Zingy Bingy off the books to the tune of what 100k? Name another company that ever pulled something so insane. Capcom's other problem was williams strangling distributors to not sell their machines.

If you want to go down this path explain why Gotlieb went under and Data East sold out to Sega. Two very established companies who both went under in the same time frame.

Same thing. Python was gone in January 1996. They were losing $1K a unit going out the door. BBB wouldn't have saved them. If anything they would have lost more money sooner.

LTG : (

Bump to keep the topic flame going.

I believe price reversals will only come when secondary sales on newer pins tank big and consistently. Stern and others see too much money left on the table.

I think small manufactures like Spooky can survive since they do such small runs - the collector market is enough to carry them for the forseeable future, as long as they stay under $7K.

The bigger guys? Time will tell. Heighway is well positioned to serve the non-US markets, though.

Not necessarily the greatest of analogies. IBM is still one of the tech giants today worth billions, it just shifted it's business model. They did obviously make a huge mistake at the time thinking that the manufacturing of computer hardware was the cash cow while allowing Bill Gates to own and license the OS to its competitors though.

Which is why I call shenanigans. You open the door and want to throw out different companies under different circumstances, but "don't want to discuss" when someone calls you on it.

The current crop of pin manufacturers don't face anything like the problems from those in the 90s. In their favor is that Stern doesn't have the same level of influence or budget that Williams did. The flipside is that the market is smaller and Skit Bi and Jpop have scared off many to preordering from smaller companies. They might succeed, they might fail, but its not going to be for the same reason Capcom or Alvin G did.

Excuses? What excuses? Point to the reasons that the two companies you used as examples failed. Relate those to the present companies. They don't match and thus your point was not valid. Get over it.

Stern made many duds when they had no competition. The boutique companies pop up and Stern games have greatly improved as far as game play (and sometimes artwork) in the past couple of years.

The companies that are selling limited numbers of machines to capitalize on profit and make sure they sell out are a problem. People jump on the band wagon thinking they better buy one because they are limited end up with a garage build quality machine with 3D printed parts. Then to see these low quality machines trying to fetch $11,000 NIB is a complete joke. Some of the boutique companies need to eliminate limited number machines and sell them at a reasonable price with unlimited quantities. Price them according to build quality.

On the flip side of supply vs demand-If China gets into pinball we possibly could see a price increase and a backorder backlog. Hopefully they stick with Hello Kitty

Definitely was more money on the table for the home market/collector. Stern saw this and decided to cash in as well. Shame of it is that doing so prices out most of the operators IMO. Yes there are exceptions in some select markets where they can have a decent ROI, but they are few and far between. Double edge sword. Kinda surprised since Gary had repeatedly said that without operators pinball is good as dead in the future and his track record for supporting ops. Seems to me that he decided to say screw it and build the wealth of the company...possibly because he is about to exit and retire (pure speculation on my part). I don't know if backroom deals are being made for some ops but I overheard Gary at Amusement Expo in Vegas offering someone to buy games direct from him for quite a discount and stipulated to him that this price was only if he bought direct through him and not one of his Distro's. I was shocked at the price and it shows how much the mark up for Stern is currently and leads me to speculate how cheap they can make these machines in their production volume levels.

I dunno, I'm with Levi here, it's hard to see too many players surviving. This hobby might be growing, but there are only so many people with fat wallets buying expensive games. At a certain point you over-fish the pond.

Maybe everyone can find their niche and ways to cater to the market and it will work out, but if there are suddenly 10 games announced at $7k+ price points do you really think there are enough customers to make all of them profitable and sustainable?

A few years ago I wouldn't have imagined buying more than a single NIB pin. This year I'm getting two and that's really stretching it. After that to get another pin something will have to get sold first, but I'm enjoying all the pins I have right now. So the money is partly the issue, but physical space is a bigger issue for me.

If there was a single new pin coming out each year then I may be able to swing getting it and rotating the new pin in and out each year. With multiples there is no way. I think each new pin will sell less units from this point out. There's been a great flow of new games recently and honestly I'll be looking to picking up some of those used going forward.

If you're truly a boutique (like Spooky) and looking to make a few hundred and sell those while designing another game I can see you surviving. If you're coming into the market and expecting to sell thousands of new pins each year I think there will be disappointment.

Which one's going to bite the dust first?

After that it should be like a snowball effect with all the others. Perhaps the OP could add a poll.