(Topic ID: 276109)

Hurricane forecast data

By Toasterdog

3 years ago


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    #1 3 years ago

    Just a quick rant. I’ve always been obsessed with weather and always want people to be safe.

    Hurricane forecasting is my issue. Category 1 is classified as sustained winds > 74 mph. So Laura, classified as Cat 4 with sustained wind speeds of 150+.

    Here reality. You can actually look back at historical data and see even at landfall, maybe sustained at 85 for a very short time, but mostly sustained winds around 50 mph. Impressive and capable of doing lots of damage, absolutely, but sustained winds would at 150 would decimate everything.

    I understand storm surge is the real doozie, especially if you live at 20 feet above sea level or below.

    Maybe the National Hurricane Center needs to show their importance and need to be funded, but I wish there was some accuracy. It’s grossly over exaggerated.

    https://www.windfinder.com/#8/30.7678/-93.5431

    You can click on any red dots for current wind speeds. Measurements will show the past 24 hours or so.

    Now with that said, I hope everyone is safe. 80 mph winds can be dangerous.

    #9 3 years ago

    I call BS. Someone show me where sustained winds were over 100.

    Quoted from Trogdor:

    Is it better to exaggerate or deflate risk associated with a HURRICANE? Whatever the wind speed, it is massive. Problem trying to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people, officials have to make an all or none call. They don’t have time to second guess and have to put fear of god in people.
    Also, what experience did the Scorpions have with hurricanes? Their from Germany, would have no idea how that would rock anybody. Fake rockers..

    I agree they should overstate threats, but it's ridiculous to say there is sustained winds at 150. You couldn't even show me one gust at 150 anywhere. I would also like to see one reputable source that shows/showed sustained winds anywhere at 100+. Not going to happen.

    Quoted from Rdoyle1978:

    It seems you have a fundamental misunderstanding about how windfinder.com works. Their app is based on models and historical information. It is not real-time, and their site -specifically- mentions that the data can be wrong during extreme events. I would say a hurricane qualifies.
    It is also extremely irresponsible and dangerous to imply that a major event such as a hurricane is somehow a “climatology LOE,” whatever that is. Please read further about the site
    https://www.windfinder.com/help/usage/forecast-superforecast.htm#fc_sfc_values
    [quoted image]

    I bet it is three times as accurate as what your weather person will lead you to believe. I've been in a hurricane area my whole life. You just watch the news.

    I don't doubt they are catastrophic, just horribly over stated.

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