Quoted from kpg:How about the time in the hobby when pins were a fraction of what they cost now and they actually made people money?
They made money by either refurbishing them or by routing them. People didn't speculate on appreciation. Nib games always lost value as the game wasn't new anymore and residual was based on a used game market where new stock defined the upper limit except for collectible history examples.
The idea that i can buy new, I can play and sell for what I have in it or more... was not the hobby. That was a trend that started with used games that had already depreciated... and later saw appreciation due to the flood of new buyers eager to buy and comparing prices to new games. The "investment" bubble came with this flood of new money and the speculation that came with the boom and titles like star trek and Metallica . This idea is based on the market at a point in time and is not reflective of the grander trend.
Now we have seen the manufacturers react to this and look to capitalize on the eagerness... and nib prices are through the roof. When the prices get to the point the buyers shrink... the price the second hand market is willing to pay for those titles will go down even more.... because the number of buyers at the higher price point is down.
Because almost every game is going into private collections and being babied... condition will have less upside on value. There will not be a large premium for a cherry game... because most are.
The market of 2011-13 is already an alighnment that is already gone. As we enter this next phase of 8k-10k premium priced pins you can't use the expectations you formed from before to expect.
It's not "hard to understand" how people think their buys will be safe because that's what they saw before... but it's naive to think the model will keep repeating while all the other pieces have already changed.
You've already seen it with the higher priced jjp games and with stern pushing that higher price as well we will see more of it.