Can this be true? - Stern revenue up 40% in 2016 and 30% in 2017.


By lpeters82

3 months ago


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  • Latest reply 3 months ago by Brijam
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    There are 184 posts in topic. You are on page 4 of 4.
    #151 3 months ago
    Quoted from unigroove:

    In this intreview Zach says sales are up 40% 2016 and 40% 2017. https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/stern-pinball-ces-2018/
    That means 2017 is almost double of 2015. Can we conclude 2015 must have been not a great year? The Walking Dead came out fall of 2014, 2015 was the year of Wrestlemania, Whoa Nellie, Kiss and Game of Thrones.

    Personally, I am just plain happy if stern is making good money. It bodes well for everyone. For many reasons.

    The other pinball manufacturers I also hope to do great.

    To assist with this I have resolved to drop my quarters on new stuff whenever possible.

    #152 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    I don’t think Star Wars is selling that great tho.
    188 Pinsiders own Aerosmith Pro.
    122 Pinsiders own Star Wars Pro.
    Maybe ops are the ones buying the game? I guess so. But Stern says home buyers are like half their market share now.
    How can the best theme of all time, Star Wars, a theme that sells napkins & plastic cups for top dollar, sell less pinball machines than a total B- theme like Aerosmith?
    How the fuck did Stern not sell me of all people a Stern Star Wars pinball machine? I’m like their exact demographic for such a title. I’m an idiot with a game room that buys NIB pins & yells like Chewie when the mood is right.
    Folks say Pinside is a tiny sliver of pinball but I think it’s far more *and* I think Pinside mirrors the core pinball buyers that aren’t vocal on here (or listing their collections). Folks don’t casually buy a dozen $7K games on a whim. They’re here lurking! Didn’t Stern say the GB PF issues cost them sales?
    Just a reminder. I don’t claim to know the sales numbers & I am 100% a Stern fan. But sorry, GOTG has shit implementation of theme & Star Wars disappointed many with its lack of interactive anything.
    Am I a bad person for this opinion of mine?

    I think both AS and SW have been selling pretty well but GOTG seems to be underperforming to date.

    #153 3 months ago
    Quoted from unigroove:

    In this intreview Zach says sales are up 40% 2016 and 40% 2017. https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/stern-pinball-ces-2018/
    That means 2017 is almost double of 2015. Can we conclude 2015 must have been not a great year? The Walking Dead came out fall of 2014, 2015 was the year of Wrestlemania, Whoa Nellie, Kiss and Game of Thrones.

    So if stern is growing 40% each of the last 2 years that means that 2015 must have sucked? What would make you think that? Why does everyone only count the new releases? Pretty sure Met, ST, TWD, and IMVE sold a ton of games that year that count towards the 2015 numbers. So no, we cannot just conclude that 2015 was down.

    Stern is growing, not sure why that is so hard for some of you to believe.

    #154 3 months ago

    For them to move factories had to have meant that business was good, and has been good, for some time. I seriously doubt 2015 was a bad year.

    #155 3 months ago

    Since it costs money to move locations, 2015 could have been better for Stern if they hadn't moved. Obviously, it was a good move on their part to expand.

    #156 3 months ago
    Quoted from Psw757:

    I think both AS and SW have been selling pretty well but GOTG seems to be underperforming to date.

    Dont worry

    I'm sure JGentry knows *tons* of non Pinside collectors that bought GOTG. (Just troll'n ya JG )

    I agree with you however as only 67 folks have it in their collection.

    #157 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    Dont worry
    I'm sure JGentry knows *tons* of non Pinside collectors that bought 2 each lol

    Nope, only know of 2 people that got an LE. I might get a premium at some point as the game looks awesome but that code at launch make me want to give it 8-12 and play it before I really consider it as an option. I played a pro on location and it shoots great. Stern definitely F'ed up that launch though. If you and Whysnow want to pull some pinside data to extrapolate out exactly how many have sold and how it means stern is about to go under we would all enjoy it though

    #158 3 months ago

    We know Stern are doing well financially simply because they haven't added the words Crypto or Blockchain to their name yet.

    #159 3 months ago
    Quoted from jgentry:

    Nope, only know of 2 people that got an LE. I might get a premium at some point as the game looks awesome but that code at launch make me want to give it 8-12 and play it before I really consider it as an option. I played a pro on location and it shoots great. Stern definitely F'ed up that launch though. If you and Whysnow want to pull some pinside data to extrapolate out exactly how many have sold and how it means stern is about to go under we would all enjoy it though

    Based on Pinside data Stern has sold far more ACDC than Shrek.

    It's prolly not true, you know, because & such.

    On the real tho if Stern finished Aerosmith then buttons up GOTG you & I will both own one! I really dig the "bones" of GOTG & its time for another NIB in my household.

    If code takes Star Wars to a new level I might buy a used one some day to play for a bit. I cant buy one NIB tho based on my broken Star Wars fanboy heart.

    #160 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    If code takes Star Wars to a new level I might buy a used one some day to play for a bit. I cant buy one NIB tho based on my broken Star Wars fanboy heart.

    I was not impressed with SW at release. I saw it, quit reading the threads about it and moved on. Had a chance to get a show game pretty cheap and thought why not have something new to flip around on for a couple of months thinking it wouldn't last long. It took about 30 plays to warm up to and figure out. SW code is already on a new level in my opinion. It has so many new things added to simple mode based bones that make it feel like nothing else. Some people will hate it but that will be true no matter what you do. I personally do not really like any of the Keith coded games. I respect them and see why others do but they are not for me. SW is a pulse pounding rush like no other game for me. When you have the multiplier up and are trying to cycle through to the correct shots as the ball whips around a ramp to set up a huge score it's super intense and really not like any other game. Closest thing is a huge 3x song jackpot on ACDC or getting a super on CFTBL. Those are my style of games though.

    #161 3 months ago
    Quoted from jgentry:

    I was not impressed with SW at release. I saw it, quit reading the threads about it and moved on. Had a chance to get a show game pretty cheap and thought why not have something new to flip around on for a couple of months thinking it wouldn't last long. It took about 30 plays to warm up to and figure out. SW code is already on a new level in my opinion. It has so many new things added to simple mode based bones that make it feel like nothing else. Some people will hate it but that will be true no matter what you do. I personally do not really like any of the Keith coded games. I respect them and see why others do but they are not for me. SW is a pulse pounding rush like no other game for me. When you have the multiplier up and are trying to cycle through to the correct shots as the ball whips around a ramp to set up a huge score it's super intense and really not like any other game. Closest thing is a huge 3x song jackpot on ACDC or getting a super on CFTBL. Those are my style of games though.

    I just wish it were a little less brutal (and I have the inlanes closed). It's so fast, that it's hard for me to incorporate the multipliers as much as I'd like. For now, until I can keep the ball in play longer, I'm not going to worry about the multipliers too much. AC/DC is a much more forgiving pin...song jackpot is awesome.

    snaroff

    #162 3 months ago
    Quoted from snaroff:

    I just wish it were a little less brutal (and I have the inlanes closed). It's so fast, that it's hard for me to incorporate the multipliers as much as I'd like. For now, until I can keep the ball in play longer, I'm not going to worry about the multipliers too much. AC/DC is a much more forgiving pin...song jackpot is awesome.
    snaroff

    I had to move mine in as well. It helped a lot and allowed me to progress much further in the game. It has crazy side to side motion and it doesn't help that the plunge sends the ball out of control. I try to feed the pops, shoot a ramp, or the scoop to give myself time for a really quick change over. I've gotten a lot better at being able to hit a lit shot and remember how many button pushes it takes to cycle to the next correct shot but it's damn hard to pull off. Feels awesome when you do though. I drain plenty trying it.

    I got a BM66 premium a few weeks after SW and I had to take the posts completely off of it because the game times were so long. Funny how different games can be.

    #163 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    Based on Pinside data

    JJP sells less of every game they put out

    #164 3 months ago

    I bought A LE Star Wars and was actually disappointed with it, I then spent my of my time playing Aerosmith then I picked up Le guardians of the Galaxy and was so pissed with it and the issues of holding a ball in orb lock. Etc.. I finally updated star wars to 1.0 and wow! I spent about an hour on it this morning alone! The game is unlike any else and can be brutal yet extremely satisfying at the same time. I can't remember another pinball that kept me wanting more and more like Star Wars. I called stern and they are sending me out replacement screws for my orb lock they said the first le's shipped had too long of skews and they have since changes them at the factory, so I'm hoping that will fix my issue with guardians.

    #165 3 months ago
    Quoted from jgentry:

    So if stern is growing 40% each of the last 2 years that means that 2015 must have sucked? What would make you think that? Why does everyone only count the new releases? Pretty sure Met, ST, TWD, and IMVE sold a ton of games that year that count towards the 2015 numbers. So no, we cannot just conclude that 2015 was down.
    Stern is growing, not sure why that is so hard for some of you to believe.

    I completely agree that they sold these elder titles too, Heck, some of the older titles may have outsold some of the new ones in 2015. Metallica has been rerun quite a bit, so that may have sold more units than Wrestlemania.

    Maybe I should have been a little more elaborate in my question, but if a company is reporting they are doing so well compared to previous years, why is wrong to not immediately jump on the cheerwagon, but also wonder how they were doing in those previous years? It's much easier to gain 40% from a lousy year, than from a good year, so the 40% of last year is actually good news.

    #166 3 months ago
    Quoted from unigroove:

    What I found interesting in the video was Zach mentioning they can only go down from here. In terms of what?

    overall quality?

    I kid.

    #167 3 months ago
    Quoted from unigroove:

    I completely agree that they sold these elder titles too, Heck, some of the older titles may have outsold some of the new ones in 2015. Metallica has been rerun quite a bit, so that may have sold more units than Wrestlemania.
    Maybe I should have been a little more elaborate in my question, but if a company is reporting they are doing so well compared to previous years, why is wrong to not immediately jump on the cheerwagon, but also wonder how they were doing in those previous years? It's much easier to gain 40% from a lousy year, than from a good year, so the 40% of last year is actually good news.
    What I found interesting in the video was Zach mentioning they can only go down from here. In terms of what?

    I would guess that Zach is implying that 40% is completely unsustainable. Which is true. Managing that much growth while exciting, can be a real nightmare and might be what led to so many QC errors. It's extremely hard to grow that fast and manage quality. That amount of growth puts a huge strain on suppliers and your staff and adding staff members does not immediately lesson the burden.

    #168 3 months ago
    Quoted from unigroove:

    What I found interesting in the video was Zach mentioning they can only go down from here. In terms of what?

    Zach was talking about his World Ranking number (#1), in which he really can only go down from there.

    That quote had nothing to do with Stern's numbers.

    #169 3 months ago
    Quoted from ifpapinball:

    Zach was talking about his World Ranking number (#1), in which he really can only go down from there.
    That quote had nothing to do with Stern's numbers.

    Thanks Josh, I stand corrected. It was a bit confusing as he mentioned the growth numbers first. I'll remove that comment from my post.

    10
    #170 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    not sure what data you are looking at???
    There are 4 AFM game options listed in the database. The original and the LE remake are the primary ones and the only ones in the rating categories so what most will select.
    AFM Original has 841 owners plus over 100 locations
    LE Remake has 227 owners plus 25 locations
    The remake "special" has 46 owners and a handful of locations
    The remake "classic" has 12 owners and a handful of locations
    Using these as relative comparisons it is really nice data.
    1. We can see that approximately 1/3 of the total claimed production run thus far of the remake are accounted for in pinside data
    2. We can see that clearly the LE remake is the most popular, the special edition next, and the classic model a far last
    3. We can get an understanding of where people see the value (the LE) and also still see that Pinside captures the upper crust of collectors that are fine with blowing more cash on a Special edition
    4. Interestingly the Original AFM is accounted for approximately 1/3 of the original production run in Pinside data also
    This is all very solid data for social science self reported data. Keep in mind that there is incentive to report accurate data as individuals like to use their collection to keep track of what they own and show it off. Locations like to report accurate data as Pinside is often used for advertising and locating games to play.

    I'm going to take a guess that you don't have a background in data.

    I'll try to explain again. Pinside stats aren't good data. The data is bad. It's not solid. It's bad data.

    tl;dr: There is no way to verify the accuracy of the data.

    You say there is an incentive to self-report collections. I say there is an incentive to exaggerate a person's collection. Which of us is right? There's no way to know.

    There's also no way to know how many titles are listed multiple times because of a sale, because Pinside doesn't track serial numbers. It's very likely that many people forget or don't care to update their stats when they sell a pin from their collection. Or they don't come often enough to Pinside, or they stopped coming to Pinside, or they forgot their password and created a new account.

    People on this very thread also admit to not listing all of their titles in their pinside collection. There's no way to enforce people keeping their collections up to date. Some people with large collections may not want to share that information for a variety of personal reasons.

    We know people create troll accounts here and also that people use multiple accounts. Say 0.005% of pinside accounts have a fake collection. There are 50,000 pinside accounts, so any title could have up to 250 titles more than are actually in the market. This is extremely significant because the numbers being thrown about here to justify sales are very small, and the pinball market is extremely small.

    So without adding some really time consuming verification process where we start from scratch and every user sends in a unique picture of the serial number for each title in their collection, this simply isn't valid data.

    You say the location data is accurate? Well, none of the pins I operate on location are listed here as being on location. I see very little location advertising here. We have no way of knowing what locations self-report their data, but a casual glance location data looks wildly under reported to me.

    We also can't use relative stats because we don't have good data on who the people this site attracts who ALSO have collection stats. Who has an incentive to report their collection? A HUO LE collector or a route operator who buys 10x more pins? I personally think that there are very few route operators here (based on threads), but there's no way to know. This is all speculation, because there's no way to know. That's what makes the data bad.

    For these reasons, the data here does not support any assertions, especially a "clearly the LE is more popular" assertion. We can only say with certainty, "of the self-reported unverified collection stats on Pinside, the LE has more entries than the Pro." Which means exactly nothing.

    #171 3 months ago
    Quoted from Brijam:

    tl;dr

    you got one thing right...

    #172 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    you got one thing right...

    Yeah, the whole argument!

    #173 3 months ago

    I don’t think anyone is saying Pinside accounts for every machine

    But if a shitload of Pinsiders claim to own Stern’s Metallica while only a few claim to own Stern’s NBA then it’s purdy clear more folks own MET than NBA

    Therefore fewer NBA sold in all likelihood.

    So I feel it’s safe to say based on Pinside info more folks bought TSPP than say 24

    Not 24 people lol, 24 the game, based on the show 24

    Is that too far fetched of me to consider the above scenarios true?

    #174 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    I don’t think anyone is saying Pinside accounts for every machine
    But if a shitload of Pinsiders claim to own Stern’s Metallica while only a few claim to own Stern’s NBA then it’s purdy clear more folks own MET than NBA
    Therefore fewer NBA sold in all likelihood.
    So I feel it’s safe to say based on Pinside info more folks bought TSPP than say 24
    Not 24 people lol, 24 the game, based on the show 24
    Is that too far fetched of me to consider the above scenarios true?

    For some people (those that dont work with big data...), it is apparently impossible for them to make any sort of reliable conclusions, even if just making relative comparisons...

    lol

    #175 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    I don’t think anyone is saying Pinside accounts for every machine
    But if a shitload of Pinsiders claim to own Stern’s Metallica while only a few claim to own Stern’s NBA then it’s purdy clear more folks own MET than NBA
    Therefore fewer NBA sold in all likelihood.
    So I feel it’s safe to say based on Pinside info more folks bought TSPP than say 24
    Not 24 people lol, 24 the game, based on the show 24
    Is that too far fetched of me to consider the above scenarios true?

    I don't think that is far fetched at all. I'd just warn that the newer the game, the less accurate pinside data trends are likely to be. You can't look at Met and SW and say that Met is killing it. A few years after both games are out of production it will be an actual representation, but then it's still only representative of pinside users.

    A good example of how the data may not be that accurate is ST. Stern has hinted the ST might be there largest modern selling game. I haven't pulled the number (I'll let you and Whysnow do my dirty work) but I bet pinside data does not say that. I bet more Mets are listed then ST.

    #176 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    For some people (those that dont work with big data...), it is apparently impossible for them to make any sort of reliable conclusions, even if just making relative comparisons...
    lol

    Big data aside, you should disclose that you’ve got access to specialized equipment to support your analysis:

    2D30C062-9415-491A-A11B-8BB89A06CD82 (resized).jpeg

    #177 3 months ago

    One conclusion is for sure is if the exact same SW Pro game was made by Spooky instead of Stern at $5400 delivered all of Pinside would fall all over themselves with nothing but praise, no criticism at all and would be so proud to add the game to their game rooms.

    #178 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

    One conclusion is for sure is if the exact same SW Pro game was made by Spooky instead of Stern at $5400 delivered all of Pinside would fall all over themselves with nothing but praise, no criticism at all and would be so proud to add the game to their game rooms.

    I don’t think so...

    Jetson is a prime example

    #179 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    I don’t think anyone is saying Pinside accounts for every machine

    I'm not saying anyone did. That's not the point.

    Quoted from PW79:

    But if a shitload of Pinsiders claim to own Stern’s Metallica while only a few claim to own Stern’s NBA then it’s purdy clear more folks own MET than NBA
    Therefore fewer NBA sold in all likelihood.
    So I feel it’s safe to say based on Pinside info more folks bought TSPP than say 24
    Not 24 people lol, 24 the game, based on the show 24
    Is that too far fetched of me to consider the above scenarios true?

    Not at all. But those are two obviously true claims. The fact that Pinside stats support your claim doesn't make the data good. A broken clock still tells the time correctly twice a day.

    But you need good data to support, for example, whysnow's claim that AFMrLE sold more than AFMr classic. Or that MET outsold SW. Interesting claims, but Pinside stats can't be used to prove or disprove them. And Pinside data is not good.

    I find it odd that this isn't totally obvious to some of you. GIGO.

    #180 3 months ago
    Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

    I don’t think so...
    Jetson is a prime example

    Or RZ & Dominos.

    #181 3 months ago
    Quoted from Brijam:

    I'm not saying anyone did. That's not the point.

    Not at all. But those are two obviously true claims. The fact that Pinside stats support your claim doesn't make the data good. A broken clock still tells the time correctly twice a day.
    But you need good data to support, for example, whysnow's claim that AFMrLE sold more than AFMr classic. Or that MET outsold SW. Interesting claims, but Pinside stats can't be used to prove or disprove them. And Pinside data is not good.
    I find it odd that this isn't totally obvious to some of you. GIGO.

    Why do you get to choose what data is obviously true or not true?

    Stern didn’t publish numbers so nothing is obvious. You’re just using your gut & calling it true then being critical of others doing the same.

    In the end this thread has become 6 of us arguing over who has the better theory lol. Aren’t we just the coolest argumentative F’n pinball nerds

    #182 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    Why do you get to choose what data is obviously true or not true?
    Stern didn’t publish numbers so nothing is obvious. You’re just using your gut & calling it true then being critical of others doing the same.
    In the end this thread has become 6 of us arguing over who has the better theory lol. Aren’t we just the coolest argumentative F’n pinball nerds

    Hey my fellow pinsider,

    I promise you I'm not using my gut.

    I usually come to Pinside to learn things. Once in a while I can offer up some of my own knowledge. I'm trying to teach you something, not score points.

    Nobody gets to choose if data is good or bad. It's either good or bad. Just like nobody gets to choose if the earth orbits the sun or not. It just does.

    I've already explained why the data here is bad and can't be trusted. You should read it again. I put a lot of thought and time into it.

    Or maybe you could watch some videos on bias and data collection like this one:
    » YouTube video
    - you can skip to 5:40 if you don't want to watch the whole thing.

    Or if you ever get out to Portland let me know and I'll explain it over pinball and beer.

    #183 3 months ago
    Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

    I don’t think so...
    Jetson is a prime example

    I dont think you can compare sw with jetsons.
    Because jetsons is very emty and mutch less rules.

    #184 3 months ago

    I'm down for a beer

    But that video didnt say anything about TSPP

    So where do you get your data?

    Also, do you watch Portlandia?

    #185 3 months ago
    Quoted from PW79:

    I'm down for a beer
    But that video didnt say anything about TSPP
    So where do you get your data?
    Also, do you watch Portlandia?

    PM me when you get to Portland for that beer.

    I don't know of a good source for data. Pinballmap.com data might be usable, since it is publicly verifiable. It'd be cool to have a website that let people upload pix of the serial number of their pins. The numbers might be useful.

    I don't watch much TV, especially reality tv

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