I think it started when the values of machines really started going up 1-2k a year, and many starting thinking there was a market to enter into without having the experience or flat out smarts to know what the fuck they were up against as the entire role of the manufacturer, regardless of if they had some experience or not before.

Now there are millions locked up in projects, many that are NOT going to see the light of day. The bubble will crash things for a while, as there WILL be people out of their money in, as will money going to manufactures instead of hobbyists, and we will wait for the cycle to start up again in 5 years.

I couldn't guess how a bubble would eventually happen, but I believe this is how it will go. There is no way all these companies come out with their product.

I believe I recall Charlie stating that in one of his podcast interviews - not all of these companies will make it past 2014.....

I must have said it a zillion times like 70% of the stuff believed to be coming out would never make it. I had this discussion in another forum, guessing only 4 of the 12 or so machines thought to come out this year, including sterns (which lets face it, are the only sure shot in the last couple years), would make it out, this year, and only slightly higher for future years.

The writing was on the wall. I want everyone to get their money back or their machines, and for pinball to be positive, but when people blindly sign up for these puffs of smoke... It's hard to feel sorry for them all in the end.

But out of this all is the main idea of this thread and hats off to Spooky! I would have guessed theirs would never see the light of day (no offence, just on paper, that's where I would have put you), and you came correct!

I'd be surprised if half of them get a game to market. No matter what year.

LTG : )™

There's Stern and then there are the Boutiques.

JJP is simply the largest of the Boutiques.

Hook, line and sinker to the blue tongued pinside frenzies caught up in the peer pressure.

Now I’m going to get preachy:

Relax.
Be happy with what machines you have.
You don't need it all.
You are not in competition with member X here for collection status.
New machines DO NOT equate to GOOD MACHINES.
There is lots of time.
Having it all now means nothing for later.
Don't wreck this hobby for yourself.
Be smart.

How can boutique survive?

Small build numbers, original theme without tricky licensing issues, no pre-order model to reserve spots. The true meaning of boutique. If it is a wild success, then you can scale up.

For sure. If you are looking at the pinball market as a way to get rich, move along now and save yourself the hassle. If HALF the indie pinball projects we are all aware of hit the market in the next 12 months not to mention new Stern / JJP titles, the market will be so saturated and that saturation will hit the indies the hardest. The wise move is to develop beautiful, fun to play games that provide a unique experience while being mindful of cost of development and production.

You cannot design your dream game, total up the cost to build it, your BOM, software development, art/sound/animations and some profit margin and say, "Ta-da! This is an $9,000 game from newindiepinballcompany.com! Come and get it!" and be surprised that people don't come running.

I always say, "You can't create art with unlimited resources." So start with a budget the market can handle and that you can command based on the reputation of your company, the greatness of your game and your ability to deliver. If you decide you can't command more than $5000 for your game, then make that game the best $5000 game you can! Don't try to convince people how AMAZING your cabinet is, how UNBELIEVABLY easy your game is to service or how it is the FUTURE of pinball. Pinball buyers are RARELY basing their purchases on those things. Make an awesome game that looks great, is fun to play and priced right and you will sell some games and probably get to do it again.

When our FAST hardware is broadly available I will expect to see nobody using "hey its got FAST hardware in it!" as a selling point. Rather, I want to see amazing games built on our platform that make the technology "disappear" and all that the user experiences is the game. So if we can help bring more awesome games to market at a better price point than can be done now, without sacrificing ease of development, hardware horsepower and reliability and actually enable some new tech along the way, then we are doing our part.

As far as an indie pinball company, I think that Spooky is doing it right. Ben made a fun game that has a distinct style and, if you know Ben at all, is loaded with all the cool Heck-i-tude to leave an impression and have you coming back to play again. Charlie turned it into a game that could be mass produced and they are on their way. Nobody got to sit around with a huge dev budget and doodle away for years. Ben had a game, Charlie saw opportunity. Bam! Pinball venture is on its way! Charlie knows that you cannot just build your own games and keep up so he is totally down to work with others. Its the way to do it! Community!

There is no doubt that the stock in Spooky is rising and that all eyes will be on Spooky for their next title. They did it once, people will be eager to see what they do next.

So if reading all this has you motivated to pursue your pinball project, right on! Do it! If its bumming you out, then maybe I did you a favor.

Aaron
FAST Pinball

I can't decide which sounds worse... DP pinball or VD pinball. why does it hurt when i pee?

By working out of a small shop with a VERY small staff building a small amount of games VERY slowly.

Not a shot at them in any way shape or form... I'm huge fans of the guys, but they're using a different approach and a different business model.

They're basically a mom and pop store that builds pinball machines. They're able to keep the doors open and I'm sure able to make a modest wage but none of them are making a fortune in pinball. And with this business model they may have a VERY happy career in pinball running a mom and pop shop till the kids take over. But, they may never become a business at the same scale as a Stern or even JJP.

Maybe they will... but it definitely isn't going to be overnight.

JJP and the others have tried to become instant competitors with Stern and to do this their overheads instantly became massive. Hence the dependency on pre-order money.

So while I'm glad to see the Spooky guys are accomplishing their goals comparing them to any of the other builders at this point other than maybe Heighway is pre-mature. Apples to Oranges IMO.

A pinball company with preorder money never closes; it merely delays.

my .02

Indie pinball is here to stay because of one reason:

Demand

The demand for new games will outstrip the supply offered by Stern or JJP. Not because Stern or JJP can't build enough machines, but because they will not able able to build what the public wants in the time they want it.

I think we will see a rise in small pinball start ups producing smaller runs of machines. The technology is already out there for those willing to pick it up. I'm not talking about re-themes, but new machines built from the ground up. Hobbyists are getting annoyed at the $7200+ offerings from the big guys and they will push their cash/ passions towards the indies.

Compare the 2010 expo to the 2014 and you'll see what I'm talking about. The innovation wave has just started to hit hobby.

Yes some will crash & burn, but not all...

Your Check is in the mail Charlie!

But seriously, the entire team at Spooky has been a super help with our Python's Pinball Circus project and we wouldn't have been able to show you something as pretty and flipping at Expo this year if it wasn't for Charlie and Ben.

We didn't get to visit the famous burger place during our visit to Benton though, so we may need to plan a return trip!

I like it too!

Just like Indie gaming or indie films, indie pinballs have a special niche separate from the bigger budget companies. It's really fascinating to see what smaller groups of people come up with, using a smaller budget. It pushes all kinds of creative boundaries.

There should be an Indie Pin show similar to the Sundance Festival....Pindance?

I go to Benton for one reason and one reason only. The burgers and Spotted Cow on tap at Lawrence's. If I run into Charlie, it's a bonus.

i have seen nothing in the past few years that would even suggest that any of the boutiques could produce a machine in a faster timeframe than stern can...

I am involved in the NWPinballShow.com and we have been talking about adding something like this to our show in June. Anyone interested in participating can PM me and we can keep in touch on developments.

Aaron
FAST Pinball

Agreed, but while Stern is tied up cranking out mustang type games for months on end, others will be using new technologies to create platforms & push pinball in other directions.

Innovation leads design, factory speed doesn't.

unfortunately, "innovation" alone isn't enough... you can innovate until the cows come home, but it does you no good unless you can actually produce a product...

we've all seen some great ideas from people (and most of us likely have a few ourselves)... it's not unique to pinball, there are many ideas to build different types of many things....

however "ideas" does not equal "finished retail product"...

i'm all for small business startups (owning a small business myself, it would by hypocritical not to be)...

Without people willing to preorder their 3rd game and Hobbit not realistically shipping until late Q3, early Q4 2015 JJP is dead in the water. Hope they have deep pockets.

Sounds like heaven to me.

Announcing today a new pinball company, Pete's Pinballs
Our first game is called The Ponzi Pyramid
Just $1000 deposit
I will work out the details later

Just give it some time. Spooky, Heighway, DP & Skit-B are all laying the groundwork for the future of the hobby & that's a good thing.

Spooky has done their work...the others? Not so much....

Amen to that Charlie! Wish you all the very best!

I'm starting up MLM Pinball, Inc.

Now I need to keep the title "hush-hush" for now but believe you me it's a BIG one! Everyone is going to want to own one of these. Even the Eskimo's will want to own this title (electricity not included).

And here is the big bonus....you to could MAKE money with this title! That's right, for every person you get to sign up to then sell this machine to their friends you get a piece of the profits! It a no-brainer money maker! But wait too long because the sooner you join (and send us your $10,000 start up fee) the faster you can get more people underneath you to make you money! Just think of it, you could end up owning this fantastic licensed theme machine for free and have enough left over to pay for your kids college (If you act fast)!

The demand I'm talking about isn't about getting old machines. It's about getting new title/themes & technology. If that stuff doesn't come from the big guys, buyers will support the little guys in droves. Getting burned is irrelevant as is the prediction that the pre-order program is dead. Sure many will complain about pre-orders and they'll stand on the mountain top shouting down at what fools we all are, but in the end it will make no difference because others will step up with cash in hand when HukaHuka Pinball Co. announces "Kinky Spacebots" or "Pokemon Daisy Fight" as their next upcoming pin. This is more about Human nature and less about pinball collecting. It's the new direction the hobby is going whether we like to admit it or not.

handful of people - Today - YES, but more today than 2 years ago.
handful of people - Tomorrow - NO, there will be plenty of people motivated to get in designing & building machines.

Im guessing the title is Amway pinball?

I keep wanting to come and visit but I don't want to be that guy, "OK, I just drove two hours, the shop tour was 3 minutes, now entertain me!" I'd even come up to help for a day, but I understand how it is with people offering to help. "It's going to cost me two hours to train you on how to do this thing that takes me an hour."

Maybe I could run a vacuum or windex playfield glass or something.

This. Maybe some day I can visit at the very least. I'd like to do a 1-2 week stint as something. I could come up and take the time off so the $$ wouldn't really matter. Maybe just earn enough for the plane ticket and food. I'd crash at the shop.

Have any local indie film makers who want to make a little documentary? "A Minion Abroad". Set it for June/July/August timeframe, I'll let you figure out why.

Here you go...this is the kind of small business I want to support. I know JJP had a rough time taking off, but I bought NIB from them and have gotten fantastic support...not to mention an awesome game. I support them (and Stern), too.

In answer to the OP's question... I don't think multiple boutique manufacturers will survive going forward. I can totally imagine a pinball world (3 years down the road) that has Stern, JJP, and Spooky still alive... but where will all the $$ come from. The collectors community is small...and within that community only so many collectors can continuously shell-out $8K for a machine. Eventually, something is going to give...

50%+ of small businesses fail across all industries. So we're going to lose some of these pinball startups.

What is different and unique about the boutiques is almost all of them are crowd funded in some way, so we're putting our money in harms way with 50% odds.

Hey now... Riot/Wooly hasn't ruffled any feathers yet. Don't be so quick to judge. And very transparent about progress without false hope about timelines. No smoke and mirrors there. Plus they're both working together now. Sounds like they are the two to watch.

Is this lucky San Diegan a Pinsider?!

Would love to be able to play AMH in person before seriously considering a purchase.

I don't think you got the shaft on AMH. It's getting great reviews.

Jpop has one now. Why do you think he has not completed a game in 4 years?

Besides, pinball design is hard. If it was easy, everyone would do it. The hard is what makes it great.

I do believe that's C2CPinball's game, so you can tune into his show in the next week or two to hear all about it.

Or perhaps you have been caught up in the crossfire. You are in the middle of an industry that has had several train wrecks in the past short while and just like any other industry, you may have been whitewashed along with the other riff-raff.

Mr. Heck, you can take solace in the fact that the overwhelming majority of pinball enthusiasts think you and the rest of the crew at Spooky are Cool and the Gang. All of you are exactly what we all we want in an upstart company.

Keep up the great work.

QSS

Kaneda makes some good points especially about money tied up in unreleased pre-orders.

In an alternate universe, Predator came out in April. After playing for half a year, a buyer decides to sell his for 5K in order to try WOOLY. The money moves through the market, WOOLY gets a sale, and somebody not on the original list of 250 gets to own a Predator.

In OUR universe, that money is tied up (because the owner is hoping their pre-order will become the next BBB) and WOOLY struggles to meet its goal.

Yeah, its gotta be Nate's game

Pinball is a business. Charlie is a business man. Business can be hard work. Charlie is a hard worker. Once the *fun* of design is finished, the *work* of production begins. It takes guts and a solid business plan to make the GIANT step from prototype to production run. Charlie takes giant steps. He also is a good long distance runner.

In short, there are pinball manufacturing companies and there are pinball announcing companies; Spooky Pinball is the former.

Announcing pinball is easy. Manufacturing pinball is hard.

Scott

We just changed our pre-order terms. We don't use customer money for operations; so we're no longer asking for any. You can now reserve your machine with no money down and no risk.

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/no-money-down-no-risk-no-obligation-reserve-your-p3-today

- Gerry
http://www.multimorphic.com

I was referring to the other companies listed. As for Riot, I agree. I'd love to own a WOOLY - great theme interest for me, and I hope he gets his minimum pre-orders. Just not from me - it's time for these companies to start funding their own projects and not using 2-3 year no obligation interest free loans from customers.....

I think what gets lost in the pre-orders is that it is not always about getting money to design a game, it can be more about measuring demand to determine the game can be built profitably. Riot is not using any pre-order money to design the game, they will only touch that money when production starts. However, Scott needs to know there is enough demand, otherwise the risk is huge to him to put out that kind of money and find it does not sell. So ultimately there needs to be a balance. I totally understand when someone does not want to per-order and put money down on a company with no track record, but I don't think you can say that Riot/Scott is using that as a 2-3 year interest free loan.

Thanks Josh. My point exactly. We showed up at Expo this year with essentially a complete game (minus background music) that literally hundreds of people got to play and enjoy. We don't need 2-more years to develop the game - the design is ready. In reality we have a 6 month plan to build games - order parts, get playfields made, establish manufacturing process, quality control standards, etc. The reality is we don't have $500K sitting around to buy the parts to build the games. If we did we'd be building games right now. I think that's the biggest difference between Riot Pinball and many of these others - we're ready to start building, just need the financial backing.

I think you can argue the pre-order concept until you are blue in the face (and it has been in the DP thread). I agree that you need to know that those pre-ordering are serious and a deposit of a $1000 isn't a bad idea - separates out the tire kickers. But where I get hung up is the next phase - as you noted, you are ready to build games, you just don't have the financial backing. The customers shouldn't have to take on that financial risk. If you believe in your product (which you obviously do), then it's up to you to secure the funds through a traditional loan, build the game at your risk and then say - "Hey guys, games are done, boxed up and ready to ship, who wants one?!"

Nate shied away from using the term in his recent podcast, but pre-orders are asking customers to basically gamble with thousands of dollars. If a company goes belly-up there is little chance the pre-order money will ever be refunded. There is no legal binding contract, just a 'handshake' through PayPal or some other online payment method.

Obviously its not as cut and dry as that, but you get my point. And don't get me wrong, I want all independent/small build pinball companies to survive (well, maybe not VD). I just think this pre-order system the pinball world has created is really flawed. Again, my opinion, and people can do what they want with their money.

I really truly like what I see in WOOLY and is one game I'd like to own in the future once I get a chance to see it in person and play. Guess that may or may not happen based on if you hit your pre-orders or not. Would love to see it at the 2015 Pinball Showdown in Denver.